Cincinnati Reds 2012

[Zafer Kaya]

How can you not be favorites for the WS if you have both Bill Bray AND Sean Marshall?  Best left-handed bullpen in major league baseball!

If Chapman doesn't start, then it would be a Chapman, Bray, Marshall lefty bullpen.  I'm guessing that would be pretty effective.  But then it wouldn't be an all-CAA lefty bullpen anymore so that would suck.

[Homsar]

Yeah Chapman is kind of a mystery right now isn't he?  He started off so well, and who the hell throws 105??  But it's obvious he can struggle.  Why is that?  Is it psycological?  Pitching coaches messing with mechanics?  I hope he is arriving at the best place for himself over the offseason.  What an asset he can be.  He could be feared throughout the league.

[Zafer Kaya]

The two minor leaguers are Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes, which surprises me.  I think the Reds overpaid.  Still, I don't think it's that big a deal.

Sappelt is fast but can't steal bases, he can hit but doesn't walk.  He's good on defense, but maybe not good enough to play CF everyday.  So pretty much your stereotypical fourth OF.  There's no reason to give up a fourth OF for nothing, but on the other hand it's hardly the end of the world.

Torreyes is pretty intriguing.  There is some chance he could end up making the Reds look really, really stupid.  But much more likely he just becomes another guy who showed some flashes of potential at some point in the low minors and then didn't pan out.

The Reds think Chapman has bad mechanics.  Whether his struggles are because of bad mechanics or because he is attempting to change his bad mechanics and not use to it yet, I don't know.  There are definitely some mental issues as well.  His best pitch is actually not the 100 mph fastball but that nasty breaking slider.  He doesn't have good control over the slider, though.  And then when he's in trouble he tries to overthrow the fastball.  Also he has some shoulder issues-- probably minor, but enough to throw him off.

Chapman is another casualty of the Reds' massively screw up of a season.  They really should have had him in the minors starting last year, and then he might be ready now.  But instead they thought they would compete so he was too valuable in the bullpen.  Turns out, he blew up in relief (though he did get himself back together late in the year) and the Reds didn't win anything anyway.  He was supposed to start in winterball, but he messed up his shoulder so he didn't pitch. 

I don't know what the Reds are going to do with him now.  I think they need to bite the bullet, send him to AAA and have him start, and then call him up hopefully by mid-season.  If they start him in the rotation, I think he could very likely struggle and it will get in his head, and then you'll have wasted yet another season.  At that point he's almost a lost cause.  The world's best and most outrageously expensive middle reliever.

[euro60]

Prince Fielder signs 9 yr, $213 mill deal with... the Tigers?!?!?

bye bye Pujols, bye bye Fielder. Here come the Redlegs!

[Zafer Kaya]

He was always going to be leaving the NL Central.  All this does is massively jack up Votto's FA asking price.  Although he was probably already beyond the Reds' reach anyway.

[Dan]

My thought was... WOW that's a LOT of money.

[cyclone]

Go Pirates.

[Butter]

He was always going to be leaving the NL Central.  All this does is massively jack up Votto's FA asking price.  Although he was probably already beyond the Reds' reach anyway.

That's why the Reds have to try to win now.  Homegrown MVP-caliber players don't grow on trees, and it is pretty clear that Votto is not going to be signing for any kind of sympathetic discount.

Glad to see Prince leave.  In fact, the more good players that leave the NL Central, the better AFAIC.

[Homsar]

Yeah, on one hand, a whole team left the division. 
On the other hand, it was the Astros...

[Zafer Kaya]

Some NL Central questions to amuse ourselves:

Reds:

More HR:  Votto or Bruce?
More saves:  Madson, Chapman, or Marshall?
More IP:  Cueto or Bailey?
More AB:  Heisey or Ludwick?

Cubs:
More AB:  LaHair or Rizzo?
75 wins:  Over or Under?

Brewers:
Mat Gamel .825 OPS:  Over or Under?
More Wins:  Greinke, Gallardo, or Marcum?
Braun 30 HR:  Over or Under?

Pirates:
Erik Bedard 100 IP:  Over or Under?
More AB:  Pedro Alvarez or Casey McGehee.
80 wins:  Over or Under?

Cardinals:
More AB's:  Berkman or Beltran?
More IPs:  Carpenter or Wainwright?
More AB's:  Descalso or Greene?

Astros:
Who cares?

[cyclone]

Pirates:
Erik Bedard 100 IP:  Over or Under?
More AB:  Pedro Alvarez or Casey McGehee.
80 wins:  Over or Under?

If they get something close to 2011 Bedard production I'll be satisfied, but it's basically impossible to try to project with his crapshoot health status.  I'll say over out of pure optimism.  When Burnett gets healthy, they actually have a slight surplus in SP, which is something I can't say I've said in a Pirates decade.  Not that that depth is especially strong, but it's depth nonetheless.  If Burnett had been healthy to start the season, it would be interesting to see who got bumped from the rotation - it might have had to have been Correia, who actually had a very good first half last year before spiraling.  Meanwhile you have Karstens, who prior to last year projected like a 5th spot starter and was their best pitcher.  And the AAA rotation has a lot of interesting options, with Lincoln (kind of a lost cause at this point) and McPherson who I expect to make the jump.

I've followed Alvarez extensively since he was drafted and gutsy as it may sound, I still have a lot of faith in him.  But at this point I'd much prefer they start him at AAA to start the season.  I understand Huntington's decision, I just feel like it's going to end up like an even further extension of last year's moral-dooming fiasco if he starts struggling to escape 0-2 counts right out of the gate again.  And the McGehee contingency plan was an even better one that I anticipated they'd pull off, I would have actually DFA'ed the reliever they traded for him so a bounce back year for McGehee would be wonderful, and not all that unrealistic.  Maybe even more interesting than third will be first ... while Pedro lasts, McGehee will get time at first platooning with Jones.  There's a 1B non-prospect who's a little older than you'd like and doesn't project for great power but hit extremely well at AAA last year and this spring who's knocking on the door given their lack of options there.

[Zafer Kaya]

I think it would be a HUGE morale/fan/front office/team boost if the Pirates finish above .500 which they have a chance of doing. Beyond that, I don't know if their players matter that much.  

They should be better than lat year.  They have good rotation depth, and while I wouldn't call McDonald an impending breakout candidate, he does have good stuff and seems to be putting it together so he could well be a pleasant surprise.  But OTOH, who cares?

The REAL Pirates rotation is Cole, Taillon, hopefully one of Allie/McPherson, maybe Heredia if he climbs the system quickly.  The REAL Pirates outfield is Bell, Marte, McCutcheon.  etc.  They are really shaping up to be a nice team in two or three years.

I think the best thing that could happen to the 2011 major league Pirates other than finishing .500 is for Tabata to have a really good year.  That would let them hopefully move him for a really nice package of  prospects, particularly a 1B or 3B.

The Pirates are going to be one of the teams most hurt by the stupid MLB agreement as they've done a very well the last couple years in the draft.  Although tbf, they really aren't that small market.  They've just had lousy owners that forced them to play that way either by being cheap and/or forcing continual rebuilds due to assembling crap teams.  So hopefully they'll be okay.

[foolsgold]

Some NL Central questions to amuse ourselves:

Reds:

More HR:  Votto or Bruce?
More saves:  Madson, Chapman, or Marshall?
More IP:  Cueto or Bailey?
More AB:  Heisey or Ludwick?

Votto will hit more homers but it will be close.

God willing, Madson will have more saves, but he hasn't thrown during spring training due to a bum elbow.  That's not particularly reassuring to hear.  As for Chapman, who knows?  One day, I read that he'll be in Louisville all year working on becoming a starter, then I hear that he's going to the bullpen to sub for Bray.

As for the Heisey/Ludwick question, it can be answered with one name: Dusty Baker.  Of course he'll play the shit out of Ludwick and let Heisey rot on the bench.  Why would he play someone with potential upshot when he has a light hitting and declining vet?

[Zafer Kaya]

I think Madson's in trouble.  Maybe not season-ending trouble, but at least a month or so.

Whenever you get one of those "He threw. He's great!" and then a day later there's a "setback" and suddenly no one wants to talk about it, that's always ominous.

[cyclone]

I think it would be a HUGE morale/fan/front office/team boost if the Pirates finish above .500 which they have a chance of doing. Beyond that, I don't know if their players matter that much.  

Your assessment is fairly accurate but a couple of things ...

Allie will almost assuredly be a reliever (ideally a closer), and I have serious concerns about whether or not he will actually make the majors.  Those assumptions were made when he was drafted, not after his disastrous rookie year at low A, which was to be expected given what a high risk/high reward project he is.  Given how young and raw he is, I'm not convinced I might not be wrong.  The organization will obviously still treat him as a starter but his control problems are going to quickly outweigh how fast he can zip a ball.

The current rotation is more interesting, to me, than your "who cares" outlook.  Morton (off-season surgery willing) is kind of in the same place as McDonald that you describe, both have more than enough breakout candidate upside at this point, but I see both being more steady 3rd in the rotation guys, and with a little more consistency I would take that in a heartbeat.  Also, Bedard and Burnett were way, way more interesting acquisitions than a Littlefield-esque veteran signing (i.e. Matt Morris).  Mostly because both of them can strike people out, which is a foreign concept in a post-fluke Oliver Perez season era of mediocre pitch to contact pitchers with the Dukes and Maholms.  And of course there's also the fact that they're leaving the AL East to pitch in a Pujols/Fielder-less NL Central.

Tabata signed some crazy extension that was extremely favorable to the Pirates last year, and I doubt they're going to be looking to move him.  The emergence of Alex Presley throws another whole wrench into the OF situation as well, but I don't want to make this post too long.  Anyway, while a healthy, solid season from Tabata would be nice, and something I think will probably happen, the single most important thing to happen in 2012 and for the future is solely Pedro Alvarez being a run producer.  With a slight asterisk applied with the brand new Bell drafting, he is the only true power source in their pitcher-heavy system, and for him to tank would be a catastrophic stumbling block in Huntington's rebuilding process.  It wasn't simply that he struggled last year, it's that he completely imploded, somehow managing to get into 0-2 count in what seemed like an uncanny 75% of the time, where he was then hopeless and would swing at any breaking ball.  Granted, he suffered multiple DL stints and had the Pirates tweak his approach at the plate several times, so there were some external factors.  But for this to carry over in 2012 would be an utter fiasco.

And yes, you're dead on about the new CBA.  Selig is always going to continue to initiate the capitalism run a muck system.  It sounds like there will be a fine if you exceed the recommended slots for the first ten rounds, you pay a fine the first time, the second time you lose a low draft pick.  Stockpiling and draft spending is what the Pirates/Royals need to do.  It's one less avenue for a team of that stature to operate.  With the comp pick thing, that might actually be one thing that works to a small market team's advantage down the road, because teams like NYY and Boston would churn FAs and then got a surplus of comp picks.  As you said though, at least up to this point Huntington has done what he said he was going to do - pour money into the draft to build that rebuilding nucleus as well as advancing the international development system.  I think this was also his strongest off-season and they just locked up McCutchen for 6 years, so we'll see.