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Politics => Political Discussions => Topic started by: Markalot on October 23, 2017, 03:47:30 PM

Title: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Markalot on October 23, 2017, 03:47:30 PM
A long way to go but I am hoping this ends up being a big story.

Just yesterday Politico posted an article bemoaning how the DNC (national committee) was short on cash.  Today a much different story:

Democratsí early money haul stuns GOP
A historic number of well-funded candidates have flooded Republican House districts ahead of 2018.


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/23/2018-fundraising-democrats-house-races-244044

Hopefully this is the first real sign that the dems can mount a decent offense (not defense).  It scares me because I despise a lot of Democratic positions but hell, anything is better than what we have now.  I see no short term hope for the Republican party since anyone primaried will probably be supported by Bannon.   The R's are in a bad bad place and need to clean house, literally. 

Unfortunately I'm usually wrong.   
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Kwyjibo on October 23, 2017, 04:40:20 PM
Given my track record with the last election (he won't make it to the first debate, he won't win the primary, he'll never get elected) I think I need to keep my predictions to myself.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: dirk on October 23, 2017, 05:34:26 PM
I still don't see any way the Dems can take back the house. The districts are so gerrymandered at this point I just don't see how they can flip enough to take back control. I think they might be able to take the Senate back, but even that will be a hard push since most of the seats up for election are democratic seats. I think the house will be closer, but I am not holding out hope for the dems to regain control.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on October 23, 2017, 10:51:58 PM
I still don't see any way the Dems can take back the house. The districts are so gerrymandered at this point I just don't see how they can flip enough to take back control. I think they might be able to take the Senate back, but even that will be a hard push since most of the seats up for election are democratic seats. I think the house will be closer, but I am not holding out hope for the dems to regain control.
I agree but I don't think it'll matter either way, as in: Trump will simply realign if the Dems win either or both of the House or Senate. As we all know, Trump is not a Republican (or Democrat). He is a one-many party, and the only thing that he is interested in is.... himself, and making himself look good and a "decisive leader". That much is clear after now 9 months of the Trump presidency. He will sign ANYTHING, regardless of substantive merit (or lack thereof), if it makes him look good. He has no clear policy on anything, and instead waits to find a moment to claim credit if something goes right, or blame everyone else if something goes wrong.

I think/hope we can manage through these next 3 years. The REAL moment of truth will come in the 2020 presidential elections. Does America want to continue with this clown? I hope not, but I wouldn't rule it out. And if somehow this pompous ass gets re-elected, what will that tell you of the state of affairs in this country?

This is a long way of my saying that I think the impact of the mid-terms elections is minimal, regardless of the outcome. The real telling moment will be in 2020.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on October 24, 2017, 03:47:14 PM
It is true that Trump has few convictions or even any understanding of policy.

But what you are missing is why voters voted for him, and why his core is still unshaken despite the fact that he's complete nincompoop in every way.  Why do they let him claim victory when he didn't do shit, and blame everyone else when things go wrong?  Because they don't actually care about any of that stuff.

The one thing Trump cannot get away with is dropping the culture shit.  If he moves left on immigration at all, or goes against the Christian Right he's finished.  Immediately.  And he knows it.      You know that Clinton was right the entire time.  The GOP is pretty much 40% bigots and 60% people who don't give a shit about anything but blaming liberals.

This makes it impossible for Trump to pivot.  A pivot means you had a stance in the first place.  He can't re-align, because that would imply there was some kind of alignment to begin with.  Trump has never been aligned with the Congressional GOP.  He only aligns for himself.

Trump is a one issue guy.  So is his base.  Even if the rural people who Trump is screwing over totally right now get tired of him, they won't vote Democratic.  They'll just vote for another far-right social conservative who is a bit more friendly to them.  Essentially they'll move EVEN FURTHER right.

These people have created communities that are so toxic and non-functional that everyone is moving far away from them.  But because of the stupidity of our electoral system, that actually gives them more power. 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on October 24, 2017, 10:40:58 PM
It all boils down to this IMHO: in 2020, someone other than Trump running for President is going to ask all those Trump supporters: are you better off today than you were 4 years ago, despite all of the promises Trump made? If it turns out that, yes, they feel better off, then Trump may win re-election. But we have 3 years to go to that, and if it turns out that many of them see no improvement, they may be turned off by the Trump clown show too.....
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on October 25, 2017, 12:53:01 AM
The problem is not Trump.  I do not care if he wins or loses in four years.  It also does not matter to me if Trump voters think they are better off in 4 years.  I hope  they are way worse off in four years because they deserve to be.  Too bad they will take a decent chunk of the country down with them.

The main reason Trump will lose support is because as you said, he has no principles.  Heís not fighting hard enough for bigotry.  So in 4 years, if people decide that they are not better off and vote for a bigger lawful evil jerk, what good does it do?

Even if they vote for a more centrist President, it still does not change the basic nature of their stupidity.  In fact, the same people who voted for Trump are likely to turn to Sanders unless Trump gets primaried.  How stupid do you have to be to do not understand those two are opposites?

I think there are plenty of people in AZ whoóeven if they wonít admit itó realize there is some merit to what Flake said about Trump.  Then they will go to the polls and happily pull the lever for Kelli Ward.  They donít learn.  They didnít learn from Palin, or from Bachmann, or from Cruz.  It just made them even more convinced that the problem was government and liberals, etc. and not their own dumb asses for voting for these idiots.

They keep doing all these interviews with supposedly regretful voters in Trump states.  They are all ďYeah, you know he really screwed me bad on healthcare.  And he hasnít done much about the jobs he promised.  He seems really unhinged and keeps tweeting and lying.  Itís all very disappointing.  Why if he doesnít do something about immigrants and this whole liberal culture, I might not vote for him next time.Ē  Fuck them.  They are idiots and horrible people.  I donít care who they vote for or why.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on October 28, 2017, 12:22:02 PM
I still don't see any way the Dems can take back the house. The districts are so gerrymandered at this point I just don't see how they can flip enough to take back control. I think they might be able to take the Senate back, but even that will be a hard push since most of the seats up for election are democratic seats. I think the house will be closer, but I am not holding out hope for the dems to regain control.
I agree but I don't think it'll matter either way, as in: Trump will simply realign if the Dems win either or both of the House or Senate. As we all know, Trump is not a Republican (or Democrat). He is a one-many party, and the only thing that he is interested in is.... himself, and making himself look good and a "decisive leader". That much is clear after now 9 months of the Trump presidency. He will sign ANYTHING, regardless of substantive merit (or lack thereof), if it makes him look good. He has no clear policy on anything, and instead waits to find a moment to claim credit if something goes right, or blame everyone else if something goes wrong.

I think/hope we can manage through these next 3 years. The REAL moment of truth will come in the 2020 presidential elections. Does America want to continue with this clown? I hope not, but I wouldn't rule it out. And if somehow this pompous ass gets re-elected, what will that tell you of the state of affairs in this country?

This is a long way of my saying that I think the impact of the mid-terms elections is minimal, regardless of the outcome. The real telling moment will be in 2020.

i've never understood the bolded.  how can you measure that?  i'm sure you'll say that that's just your (euro60) opinion and everyone is entitled to an opinion.    do you really think that he thinks a majority of what he says is gonna be a smashing success?  i don't think he's delusional into believing america adores him.  one of his campaign mantras was; if the world is against me, it wouldn't be fair otherwise.  or something like that.  how fucking sweet is that?  straight outta eastwood.  and people say the man isn't sincere, that's not true.  he's sincere in making the world aghast.  quite revolutionary of him
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on October 29, 2017, 01:15:14 AM
i don't think he's delusional into believing america adores him.
actually I do believe Trump is delusional, on so many levels <sigh>
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on October 30, 2017, 10:23:29 AM
this reminds me of the scene in the caine mutiny court martial.  the lawyer cross examines the defendant and asks him if he had any clinical background to render the opinion that their commanding officer was in fact, quite bonkers.  of course he hadn't.  do you? 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on October 30, 2017, 10:56:10 AM
this reminds me of the scene in the caine mutiny court martial.  the lawyer cross examines the defendant and asks him if he had any clinical background to render the opinion that their commanding officer was in fact, quite bonkers.  of course he hadn't.  do you?

Why is this even an argument?  Trump is immensely unpopular and always has been.  His approval rating is in the tank and has been more-or-less the entire time he's been President.  He ran against a strongly disliked candidate, and still lost the popular vote.

Trump has let's say 30% of the country who are diehard devotees.  And probably 45% of the country that hates him just as much.  Those numbers at this point seem to be set in stone.  It will take something pretty big for either side to change their mind.  Even the remaining 25% are mostly not enamored of Trump.  They dislike him, it's just that they might vote for him anyway.

It's not like Trump is even trying to be that popular.  His biggest appeal for the 30% of the country that loves him is that the other 45% hate him. 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on October 30, 2017, 11:44:49 AM
but euro started it! 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: foolsgold on October 30, 2017, 02:06:59 PM
Webster's dad was indicted and plead guilty.  Ma'am must be devastated.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Butter on October 30, 2017, 02:10:06 PM
Webster's dad was indicted and plead guilty.  Ma'am must be devastated.

This took me a minute, but damn it was worth it.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Markalot on October 31, 2017, 04:55:29 PM
The last few posts, and I hope no one takes this personal, are an example of why Trump won.

He's not delusional, he's a crooked real estate developer, egotistical, and most likely a sociopath.

The real danger now is that the dems won't be able to mount an offense and go what Politico describes as full McGovern with a pick like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in 2020.  Defense doesn't win games.

In a somewhat related opinion ...

Personally I try to pay attention to all sides to make sure I'm not surprised when something the mainstream media says ends up not being true.  I have finally dropped Fox news from my sources because it's gone full tabloid, somehow worse than before.  Yes, I know a lot of you think it was full tabloid before but this is different.  It's large bold headlines are mostly political in nature now, similar to drudge or some of the UK tabloids also owned by the Murdochs.  No real surprise there.

I've picked up McClatchy and the Washington Examiner as sources that tend to lean right but are still considered mostly accurate. 

If you find you only pay attention to news outlets you agree with then you're doing it wrong.  :)
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on October 31, 2017, 08:17:18 PM
Yeah.  The Washington Examiner is definitely conservative, but they do not try to hide it either.  They have some legit DC political reporters.

I would say they are kind of right in the middle of the right overall.  But they try to be a tent pole for all conservatives, which is bad.  And even the mid-right now is pretty messed up.

You have a lot of writers IMO, who are okay with a lot of stuff that is going down, they just wish Trump werenít so gauche about it.  Or that liberals somehow are to blame for forcing Trump to be this way and for voters to have voted for him.

You are not really objective if you print like 3 pro-Trump pieces and 3 critical pieces.  You are really just being a Trump apologist by giving him a thin veneer of respectability.  Like oh, we donít just blindly back him ALL the time.  But Trump is just bad.  If you were objective you really should be bashing him like 80% of the time.

The Examiner is like borderline okay now.   But are they going to do what needs to be done and start truly calling Trump out?  I donít think so.  The time has come to make a stand.  But I think they will do like the rest of the mainstream GOP.  Wring their hands but ultimately do nothing.

I dunno, I cannot defend CNN either.  They have gotten ridiculously bad.

I think Trump is delusional in a lot of ways, but that does not make him any less dangerous.  People are not just going to wake up one day and go, ďOh wait, what was I thinking?Ē  Just look at AL.  Trump endorsed Strange and he lost to Moore.  Trump is not the leader of some new movement, heís a pawn.  If Bannonís peeps win the primaries in 2018, I do not think he would hesitate to run someone against Trump.  That person would probably win.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on October 31, 2017, 11:49:30 PM
so is bannon the pawnmaster?  him stepping aside from trump's camp was just a show as if to say, 'the ship has sailed, my work is done here'? 

he's a very savvy fella.  some say he's groomed to be the next ailes.  even he's a pawn
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 01, 2017, 07:43:48 PM
I do not think of Bannon as a pawn master.  Heís not manipulating people or doing underhanded Behind-the-scenes stuff.  Quite the opposite.  Heís using an all-out, in your face, full-frontal attack.

Bannonís purity is what sets him apart.  He is not worried about polka, re-election, or even our system of government.  I honestly think that if he had the support he would attempt a military coup.  Dude is not fucking around.

The other thing is, I think Bannon was really the first person to really declare open warfare on the GOP.  Itís not that he likes liberals, obviously, but he hates the establishment GOP to an equal extent.  The right was split.  That is why they were losing elections.   But rather than compromise on issues or split power to present a united front against liberals, Bannon is strong-arming Republicans into going far right.

The GOP establishment still does not realize what has happened, or they are a bunch of wussies.  They are still trying to make peace and unite the party.  They do not get that Bannon and the far right have declared war on them.  There is no compromise. 

But itís not really Bannon that is the problem.  It is the far right.  Bannon too, can be replaced.  Thereís just no reason he would be as he is loyal and effective.  But if Bannon died tomorrow none of what is happening would stop.

Where I disagree with mark a lot is that I do not think the Democrats moving left will accomplish anything.  They are not in the equation.  Bannonís plans for dominance do not include Democrats in anyway.  He can get he core he needs just from he right.  Especially as he has little regard for the Constitution or playing fair.

Liberals cannot dislike Trump or Bannon any more than they already do.  They are united on that front. 

It is really up to the free-thinking conservatives to start to see Trump/Bannon/far right as a bigger enemy than Democrats.  They have to look beyond the policy issues.  Bannon is engaged in a cultural war.  Both of ďcultureĒ and ďwarĒ cnannot be emphasized enough.  When you look at something like trade agreements, Bannonís reasons for wanting out are as far different from normal GOP thinking as they are from Bernie Sanders. 

The GOP will have to get to the point where even if they agree on surface policy, they will put their foot down on the methods being used to.  Basically Flake is right, but no one (including Flake) has gotten to the point of actually doing anything about it.

Libertarians have been massively conned as well.  Over the years, they have let the message get warped that small government means limited government power and not just a smaller budget and staff.  That is why so many so-called Libertarians support Trump even though he is perhaps the most scarily authoritarian leader we have had.  Itís like ďYeah reduce the government to just one guy.  That sounds good.  Small government, less bureaucratic inefficiency.Ē  The bureaucratic inefficiency is their in large part to limit the power of government. 

Liberals are also quite stupid and easily fooled.  Most of the public is.  Itís not like I think they are smarter or better necessarily.  Itís just that in this particular instance, they are trying conned by the far right since they naturally hate them anyway. And the far right is the primary concern right now.

Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on November 01, 2017, 10:35:48 PM
The GOP establishment still does not realize what has happened, or they are a bunch of wussies.  They are still trying to make peace and unite the party.  They do not get that Bannon and the far right have declared war on them.  There is no compromise. 

THIS!

As someone who traditionally leans Republican, I am stupefied by what I am watching. As I told a friend today at lunch, I have not deserted the Republican Party, it has left me.

Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 02, 2017, 11:29:23 AM
then shouldn't you be more supportive of trump? 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Dan on November 02, 2017, 12:35:12 PM
how is that?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 02, 2017, 01:12:33 PM
if you're a gop guy and hate what it's become, trump is forcing them to change or be rendered obsolete
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 02, 2017, 01:44:13 PM
He hates what the GOP has become due to the far right influence and Trump.

What the GOP stands for now is not at all what they used to represent.  The people being called RINO's are the actual Republicans.  The far right are the ones who are Republican in name only.

But you notice how people don't say RINO as much anymore?  They say establishment Republicans.  Which is what they also call Democrats.  And the media they don't get along with.  Now it's pretty much everyone they don't agree with is lumped in as "establishment," or "Congress" or "Mainstream."  You are seeing fewer attacks directed specifically at liberals.  And when the term "liberal" is thrown around, it's used interchangeably with "establishment" or "main stream."

That's an example of the open war between the far right and everyone else.  They no longer bother to distinguish between moderate right, left, or whatever.  They hate Corker and Flake as much as they hate Pelosi.  Maybe more.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on November 02, 2017, 02:42:39 PM
He hates what the GOP has become due to the far right influence and Trump.

What the GOP stands for now is not at all what they used to represent.  The people being called RINO's are the actual Republicans.  The far right are the ones who are Republican in name only.

DING! DING! DING! We have a winner
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 03, 2017, 04:51:15 PM
I know three people who are lifelong Republicans and have vowed to vote straight ticket Democrat.

Which is pretty big, considering two of them live in my district and our Republican delegate is neither far right or crazy.  Very moderate guy, will call out his own party, and has crossed lines to vote against some of the stupider bills the right wing types have tried to pass.  I would vote for him, too if it weren't for this political situation.

I also know three people who are diehard liberals and are not voting for Northam because they are insane idiot Bernie Brother types who think he's a DINO.  One of them is a Sarandon type who is voting for Gillespie to "blow up the system."  Gillespie's not going to blow up the system.  Gillespie is the system.

That's pretty much the problem with the political scene and why Trump et al. are not going away.  The crazies have enough power to have taken over the GOP and unify what's left of it.  There would be enough deserters for the Democrats to win except that now liberals are where the GOP was this last decade, trying to deal with the Tea Party of the left splitting the ranks.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on November 03, 2017, 11:51:02 PM
ZK, you capture the situation perfectly. I voted Hillary in the 2016 election because her beliefs were closer to mine than were Trump's, who is of course not a Republican (in the way that I have always understood it). I did vote Republican in the previous 2 presidential elections.

The all-out wars that are going on right now within both parties remain to be seen how it all is going to play out. I have no idea what is going to happen next. I do know this: I will never vote for Trump. If the Democratic candidate is someone like Elizabeth Warren, I know I also will not vote for her. Likewise for Bernie Sanders. I'll review everything carefully. While I once considered myself a fairly reliable Republican, I'd call myself "independent" now, and I will strictly vote on substance, regardless of party affiliation.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: dirk on November 03, 2017, 11:59:55 PM
I think the biggest problem is that everything has shifted so far right that there is no balance anymore. The mainstream democratic party is close to what The GOP was in the early 80s under Reagan (with some small differences). Clinton was a Reagan republican, not a democrat. And the GOP has shifted so far to the right they are basically on the verge of being the KKK with the candidates they have. While Sanders and Warren are seen as extreme, they are what the democratic party used to be, actually liberal. We now have a far right party, a right party, and some rabble rousers from the mid to slightly far left.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 04, 2017, 09:18:37 AM
I disagree completely.  Sanders has never at any point been a mainstream liberal.  Why do you think he is independent?  He has always been far left.  Clinton was probably slightly farther left than Obama.

Liberals just got greedy is all.  No one wants to say bad shit about Obama so they ignored the fact he was not very liberal at all.  They blamed it on Congress.  Which is not altogether unfair.  But then they expected Clinton to be all leftist and fix that at a time when it was impossible.  Sanders and Clinton voted together 95% of the time.  None of Sandersí whacky plans had a snowballís chance in hell of passing. 

If I had to choose between Sanders and Trump, I think I would grit my teeth and vote for Sanders.  Maybe.  I do not agree with his policies, although I like him as a person.  Or did until the last election, now Iím a little more iffy.  I will not vote for Warren.  I might even vote for Trump before Warren.

Did the Dems want Clinton to win?  Of course.  Because she represents their platform, and moreover she has paid her dues for the party.  The Dems let Sanders run so he could get his message out there and the far left would know that the Dems had not forgotten about them.  Sanders took that opportunity to trash the Democrats instead.  He sounds like a complete tool whenever he talks about how bad Trump is now, because he said the same shit about Democrats.  There was and is a huge distinction between Clinton and Trump.

The ďeveryone sucks so it doesnít matter just blow up the systemĒ rhetoric is how the far right took over.  I view the far left with equal contempt.  If both sides are doing this, then we are screwed.  I donít care who is in charge.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Dan on November 06, 2017, 11:00:26 AM
Sorry to have to ask, but can someone outline what Elizabeth Warren's general policies are? I'm surprised to hear ZK not interested in her based on the (very) little I know of her.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 08:17:57 AM
People covering the Virginia elections donít seem to understand that the important race is not for Governor, but lt. governor.

Virginia is legit purple, and getting more blue.  But it is not as blue as people think.  The only reason Democrats keep winning the Governorship is the GOP keeps running out far right idiots.   Freaking Cuccinelli almost beat McAuliffe, and he is a total nut job and this was also after the GOP governor (only slightly less nutty) was charged with a felony.

Gillespie is a pretty run-of-the-mill Republican.  The only reason not to vote for him if you are Republican is to go against Trump and the far right.  I do not think enough people will cross lines to vote for a rather blah Dem just for that.

But in the lt. governor race you have a totally awful person in Vogel running against a bright young black dude in Fairfax. Iím not saying Vogel is just bad because of policy, though she was the architect of the bill requiring vaginal ultrasounds.  She also spread rumors about her opponent having an affair.   They traced the emails to her in address. 

So if you see Vogel do as well or better than Gillespie, then that tells you the far right has taken over or that the average Republican is just going to vote party over state/country regardless.  If she does worse than Gillespie, that tells you how many solid Republicans are willing to resist the far right.

If Northam and Fairfax both win, that might be the death blow for the GOP in Virginia.  Because Northam is an unexciting guy, and he does not appeal much to students and young voters who would have preferred Periello.


Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 11:14:00 AM
What's the word on the street, ZK? Northam? Gillespie? Too close to call?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 02:19:00 PM
What's the word on the street, ZK? Northam? Gillespie? Too close to call?

My feeling is Gillespie.  I have always thought he would edge it out, though.

It did not help that in he last week Northam self-destructed.  Gillespie's thing has been that he will sign a bill that will ban sanctuary cities.  Which Northam and other liberals have been using to point out how crazy Republicans are, because there are no sanctuary cities in Virginia.  You're banning nothing.

Then suddenly a few days ago, Northam suddenly says that he too would sign a bill banning sanctuary cities if it were presented to him.  Which promptly lost him the endorsement of several far left groups. 

I used to be able to get a good read on elections because my old district was pretty much 100% Democrat.  So, all I had to do was look at the turnout.  Like I knew Obama had won when I saw that the line was 4 blocks long and filled with white VCU students.  Then I knew Clinton was in trouble 8 years later when the line was 2 blocks long and mostly black students plus some young white liberals in their late 20's/early 30's.  Basically it was the same young people who voted for Obama, just 8 years older.  The college kids did not turn out.

My new place this time was filled with mid 30's to mid 50's, wealthy, white people driving new but practical crossover SUV's and wearing business attire.  Could mean anything.  It is a purple District in recent elections.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 04:53:49 PM
Yeah, that doesn't sound good for Northam...
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 07:59:15 PM
Looks like a fairly big Northam win. 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 08:20:17 PM
The ZK Political Barometer is apparently broken.

Either that, or you changed polling precincts. ;)
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 08:35:33 PM
The ZK Political Barometer is apparently broken.

Either that, or you changed polling precincts. ;)

Yeah, I moved to a wealthy area of town.  It is half younger, moderate liberals who are upwardly mobile.  But it also has the most old-school, old-fashioned, Uber-rich assholes, too.  Colonial mansions and English manors with huge lawns.  Like even the super rich, young, lawyers who are conservative donít live there because they would rather live in the hipper areas of town.

You know that douchebag Rick Gates who was indicted by Mueller?  He lives there.  Just a few blocks from my house.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 08:45:13 PM
Wow.  This is turning into an ass-whuppin.

The Dems actually have a shit at taking the House of Delegates, which I thought was totally impossible.  Manoli Loupassi might lose my District, which actually kind of sucks as he is a good person and good delegate.  I felt super bad voting against him.  In a normal year, I would have voted for him without a second thought.

Loupassi is a very moderate Republican.  He criticizes the far right, and crosses party lines on votes with some regularity.  Particularly on social issues when the GOP are being dicks. 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 08:50:12 PM

You know that douchebag Rick Gates who was indicted by Mueller?  He lives there.  Just a few blocks from my house.


Say no more...
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 08:51:39 PM
How's Justin Fairfax going? I take it he'll probably win too?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 09:09:35 PM
How's Justin Fairfax going? I take it he'll probably win too?

Yes.  But oddly he is winning by less than Northam.  Canít figure that one out.

It would seem like some conservatives rejected Gillespie for not being Trumpian enough. Because Vogel did better. But then the Republicans got blown out in the delegate races including some fairly conservative districts. 

At any rate, it looks like Vogel will lose.

Hard to see this as anything other than a massive rejection of Trump and the far right.  Breitbart is acting like it is because Gillespie is establishment.  And Trump is saying it is because Gillespie did not embrace Trump... whatever that means.  But that ignores all the other races they lost where the candidates had no problem trying to glom on to Trump.

My guess is Trump starts deleting his pro-Gillespie tweets in the next few hours.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 07, 2017, 09:22:24 PM
Haha.  Bob Marshall lost to Danica Roem.  That is so deliciously awesome.

Marshall is one of the absolute biggest turds in politics who proudly proclaims himself to be a homophobe.  He is an absolute loon.  I would say he is a typical far right jerk, but even a decent chunk of the far right canít stand him.

Danica Roem becomes the first transgender person elected to Virginia state office.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 09:25:20 PM

You know that douchebag Rick Gates who was indicted by Mueller?  He lives there.  Just a few blocks from my house.


Say no more...

Apropos of nothing, I just heard that it looks like your neighbor Rick Gates might get his ankle monitor switched off soon. So at least he can flee the country walk his dog again soon.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 07, 2017, 09:31:15 PM
Haha.  Bob Marshall lost to Danica Roem.  That is so deliciously awesome.

Marshall is one of the absolute biggest turds in politics who proudly proclaims himself to be a homophobe.  He is an absolute loon.  I would say he is a typical far right jerk, but even a decent chunk of the far right canít stand him.

Danica Roem becomes the first transgender person elected to Virginia state office.

That's just great.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Markalot on November 08, 2017, 03:05:44 PM
Awesome Virginia and Pennsylvania results, glad to see it.


I liked this quote about the turnout and what may be happening, from http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article183451431.html

>ďIf youíre a GOP incumbent in a heavily suburban, college-educated district, I think youíre worried today, and rightfully so,Ē said veteran Republican strategist Chris Wilson.

Trump won an Electoral College victory without the support of some of those voters, while others, seeing the race as a binary choice between Trump and Hillary Clintonówho also had high unfavorable ratingsóreluctantly backed him. The concern is that, without facing that stark choice again, some of these suburbanites may be inclined to more actively consider Democrats going forward.

ďClinton was such a horrible candidate that distaste for her may have held back the swing of college educated whites towards the Democrats,Ē Wilson said. ďIf thatís true, itís a real problem and one that Republicans must address prior to 2018.Ē
<
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: c-lando on November 08, 2017, 03:13:31 PM
Haha.  Bob Marshall lost to Danica Roem.  That is so deliciously awesome.

Marshall is one of the absolute biggest turds in politics who proudly proclaims himself to be a homophobe.  He is an absolute loon.  I would say he is a typical far right jerk, but even a decent chunk of the far right canít stand him.

Danica Roem becomes the first transgender person elected to Virginia state office.

That's just great.

x2!!!
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 08, 2017, 06:53:56 PM
ZK, what were the final numbers in the House of Delegates races?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 08, 2017, 08:21:00 PM
It is 49 Dem and 47 GOP right now, I believe. 

The last 4 spots are subject to recount, plus some provisional ballots to be counted.  Those 4 spots were won by Republicans.  So if they stand, it will be 51 GOP to 49 Dem.

But 1 spot is likely to go DEM, and the GOP will likely retain the other 3.  So we are most likely looking at a 50-50 split.

The Senate is 21-19 split in favor of GOP, but the Senate is mostly just normal conservative as opposed to the House where it was filled with crazies.



Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on November 08, 2017, 10:35:13 PM
The internal war within the Republican Party between the "establishment/regular" and the "far right/crazies" is just starting, and will continue to play out in the next year leading up to the Midterms and then towards 2020. It ain't going to be pretty, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 09, 2017, 08:00:45 AM
Just starting?!?  Jesus Christ man, wake up.  It started ten years ago.  You already lost.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Dan on November 09, 2017, 03:10:17 PM
Tea Party started it I assume?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 09, 2017, 07:28:25 PM
At least since then.  Probably even before the Tea Party.  I would argue that the 2000 new revolution and subsequent ridiculous gerrymandering was what really laid the groundwork.

I donít know exactly when it started, but at the point is, Trump did not come out of nowhere.  It has been a slow motion train wreck for years.  Everyone saw it coming, but no one wanted to listen to supposed liberals.

The far right wing kept moving the GOP to the right, and the GOP capitulated.  At some point, the far right no longer needed the mainstream GOP to give them a veneer of respectability or their political clout.

They own the GOP.  Now they are throwing them out.  The idea of the mainstream GOP fighting back is hilarious.  They are surrendering left and right.  How many are not seeking election?  Like close to a dozen now? Itís over.

If you are a moderate conservative, you are wasting your time trying to salvage the party.  Your time is better spent trying to keep Democrats from moving too far left than convincing Republicans to move back to Center.  It might even be best to register as a Democrat.

How is Trumpís agenda really even different from the GOPís?  They just donít like him because he is kind of an idiot and also because he makes them look bad by actually demanding them to do the asshole things they promised but thought they would not have to deliver on.  If Pence were President, the agenda would be the same but you wouldnít hear a peep from Republicans.

The VA elections show how you can beat the far right.  And in a way that is palatable to conservatives.  The people that won were fairly moderate.  None of them made a big deal out of their gender/minority status.  They simply pointed out that the GOP was filled with loonies and they were normal people.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on November 09, 2017, 10:46:28 PM
ZK, your analysis is pretty much on point, and frankly outright depressing for a moderate Republican-leaning like myself. <sigh>

Like I said in an earlier post I'm nowthinking of myself more of an independent, and my vote is up for grabs.

As a complete aside, in the super-local city election earlier this week here in Blue Ash (suburb of Cincy), the Republican mayor (whom I know well) just barely got re-elected to city council (literally by a few dozens of votes). Two other Republican (and long time) city council members got bounced. This is unheard of as for ages (I've lived in this part of town for 20+ years) the Blue Ash city council was entirely Republican. Something is really brewing...
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 10, 2017, 12:22:29 AM
And the fact is, those people who got bounced probably aren't *really* Republican (at least, not Trumpist Republicans) but because they ran with that "R" by their name, good-bye!

I'll post my political scientist view later on tonight when I have the time.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 10, 2017, 02:17:28 AM
Eh, itís not that grim.

Even the Socialist isnít that bad.  Iím not saying you will like the dude, but he strikes me as more very liberal rather than a real Socialist or like, historically far left.  A bit kooky sure, but there are people in Congress that are probably as far left or farther than him.  He doesnít seem all that flame-thrower-y, just strongly committed.  Like how Bernie Sanders was before he ran for President. Sanders just voted left on everything but he was lower profile than say, Pelosi.  Itís good to have a couple of people like that around.  Just not more than that.

Most of the rest of them, I think you would be okay with.  Not that they are your optimal candidate, or that you would vote for them, but you wouldnít be too upset they won either.  Theyíll piss you off at times, but you wonít despair about what this country is coming to, or that they will cause lasting damage that couldnít be reversed.  Just your average, oh well the Dem won, too bad, that sets us back a little but weíll get Ďem next time situation.

As compared to even a moderate Republican at this point who even if you like them personally, will cause lasting damage on account of letting Trump have control.

What happened in Virginia was good and hopefully the DNC takes note.  Donít get cocky and start handpicking insiders or running far left progressives out there.  Let moderate left outsiders with fresh ideas but practical approaches point out reasonably how bad the GOP is without going all Democrat special interest group talking points.  No one has much enthusiasm for the establishment right now, but not being establishment doesnít mean you have to take on radical views.  You can be Kasich or Clinton policy-wise.  Just donít be Kasich or Clinton politically.

If that happens, we will probably get a crop of people all of us on this board can live with.  Let things cool off for a few years.  Then we can get back to our old political fighting left v right and how far.  Instead of all of us just being like ďWTF?!?Ē
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 10, 2017, 10:11:40 AM
is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Kwyjibo on November 10, 2017, 12:50:48 PM
Nevermind that everything else about the libertarian agenda is shit.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 10, 2017, 01:16:34 PM
is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone

I'm more of a Roosevelt New Deal Democrat. I believe that members of society should look after one another in order to strengthen the country as a whole. I guess that makes me - gasp! - a socialist. Actually, more of a social democrat.

Socialism has gotten a bum rap in the United States. Many, many Americans, nearly 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, still think socialism = communism. And that's obviously not true. I think it's because the official name of the Soviet Union was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - but they only really did that as spin doctoring. All communist countries do that - North Korea is neither democratic or a republic, but they call themselves the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Getting off on a political philosophy tangent here (easy for me to do) so I'll bring it on back - I don't consider myself a Democrat, but I'm certainly aligned with them and I want them to do well in the elections because they are the major party that is closest to my way of thinking. Unfortunately, what that means is that they are the only party that is not out to destroy the social safety net that I believe in - but I don't think that they are really looking to add to it too much (because of what happened in the 2010 midterms when they did). Still, I'm above all else, a realist. For example, I'll settle for not taking away health care for 25 million Americans before insisting on expanding it to everyone. Baby steps.

As for the Libertarian Party - meh. I actually believe you do need to have border controls (but not this crazy travel ban/wall/racial profiling bullshit) in order to safeguard your citizens. And frankly, citizens should be a priority for a government - otherwise, why have the concept of citizenship at all? As for drugs - well, I enjoy my alcohol (in moderation, of course - having a beer right now), and I enjoyed other stuff when I was younger. But now that I'm a "responsible adult" (allegedly), I find I don't miss it. Yes, there are some parts of the drug schedules that are bullshit. For example, I firmly believe that marijuana is illegal because the tobacco companies, all those years ago, saw a way to eliminate the competition and create a legally-enshrined monopoly on smokable narcotics. But you can't look at what's going on with the opioid epidemic (many of which are legal, albeit prescription, drugs) and tell me that "drugs for everyone" is a swell idea.

Anyway, I never thought I'd participate on an online politics board as much as I have here. Maybe that's because the people here are reasonable. And I've known most of you for years (and you know me).
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 10, 2017, 06:47:54 PM
is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone

If Cliff Hyra or Rob Sarvis stood a chance here in VA, I might have voted for them.

My sister voted for Sarvis, then almost pooped her pants when Cuccinelli almost won.  So this time she went Dem.

The Libertarian candidates that ran in Virginia are different from a lot of Libertarians, though.  They were fairly moderate Libertarians.  Also they were not into all that Von Mises/Ayn Rand shit.

I could not vote for Gary Johnson because 1) Trump, 2) A little too far to the Rand axis, 3). He was kind of an idiot and not at all qualified.   But I kinda liked him.  I want him to stay in politics.  I think he makes a better governor or maybe Senator than a President.

Iím a hippy, old school classical liberal kind of Libertarian.  You ever read Adam Smith?  Itís very optimistic about how people are good.  Basically capitLism works because you cut out the middleman.  People will naturally help each other by interacting directly more than the government can.

Somewhere along the line, capitalism got twisted into this dog-eat-dog thing where capitalism works via survival of the fittest.  And it is your duty to be selfish so as to weed out the weak or something.  Libertarianism took a right turn, and Ron Paul and Rand Paul are of that school.  What is worse though, is it enabled every asshole conservative to claim to be libertarian.

All you do is talk about how YOUR rights are trampled, and ignore everyone elseís.  And what makes it easier to reconcile is if you do not treat others as real people.  For example Muslims are barbarians not ready to handle our golden Western values, so they donít get the hands-off approach to living.

The kind of Libertarianism I want cannot be achieved via government.  So any Libertarian trying to run for office is kinda defeating the purpose.  Basically, rich people die and leave all their money to poor people and then no one is poor, and weíre like ďWhat do we need taxes for?Ē

People just do what they do, and if they can handle it then government is redundant.  That is the problem with government in a Democracy.  Not they they are evil, or stunningly incompetent, but thatwe really may not need them that much. 

Post-Rand Libertarian is like post-Marx Communism.  The original idea was that you did not have to force it.  People would natural figure out that it was the best society.  If Smith and Marx were right, we just had to spread the word and wait.  But Libertarians nowadays are trying to force it just like Lenin did.  You canít bring about Libertarian society via government ruling.

So even though I view myself as a Libertarian, I am not aligned with the Libertarian party.  Politically, Iím a small government, centrist Liberal.  I would try to cut spending by 25% in ten years, and then optimally reduce the budget down to 25% of what it is now.  But almost the entirety of that small budget would be spent on left wing social programs.  Because I think that the role government is best at is being a safety net and redistributing wealth.  They just donít need to be doing so much of it, and so badly.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 10, 2017, 06:56:34 PM
Looking at the voting in VA, Iím pretty sure Barbara Comstock is toast.

Itís a shame in a way as she is a mild, moderate Republican.   Then again, she still voted with the GOP all the time.  She moans about the incivilty and stuff, but she doesnít do much to stop it.

I think Scott Taylor could be in trouble as well.  Heís not a jerk but he is conservative enough that I donít care.

Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 11, 2017, 12:27:42 AM
Somewhere along the line, capitalism got twisted into this dog-eat-dog thing where capitalism works via survival of the fittest.  And it is your duty to be selfish so as to weed out the weak or something.  Libertarianism took a right turn, and Ron Paul and Rand Paul are of that school.

...

Post-Rand Libertarian is like post-Marx Communism.  The original idea was that you did not have to force it.  People would natural figure out that it was the best society.  If Smith and Marx were right, we just had to spread the word and wait.  But Libertarians nowadays are trying to force it just like Lenin did.  You canít bring about Libertarian society via government ruling.

Hang on a second...a thought just occurred to me, reading those sentences in close succession.

Did Ron Paul name his son after Ayn Rand?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 11, 2017, 11:51:06 AM




All you do is talk about how YOUR rights are trampled, and ignore everyone elseís.  And what makes it easier to reconcile is if you do not treat others as real people.  For example Muslims are barbarians not ready to handle our golden Western values, so they donít get the hands-off approach to living.

yeah, muslims are a bastion of empathy.    there's a real war on women.  and whatever else is every social justice warrior's worst nightmare.  western values sure pale in comparison don't they?  i'm fine with muslim folks, they can't help where they were born just like i can't help being the byproduct of a ramblin' prairie preacher, but their religion is behind the times.  is it fair to criticize a religion? 

 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 11, 2017, 02:47:34 PM
is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone

I'm more of a Roosevelt New Deal Democrat. I believe that members of society should look after one another in order to strengthen the country as a whole. I guess that makes me - gasp! - a socialist. Actually, more of a social democrat.

Socialism has gotten a bum rap in the United States. Many, many Americans, nearly 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, still think socialism = communism. And that's obviously not true. I think it's because the official name of the Soviet Union was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - but they only really did that as spin doctoring. All communist countries do that - North Korea is neither democratic or a republic, but they call themselves the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Getting off on a political philosophy tangent here (easy for me to do) so I'll bring it on back - I don't consider myself a Democrat, but I'm certainly aligned with them and I want them to do well in the elections because they are the major party that is closest to my way of thinking. Unfortunately, what that means is that they are the only party that is not out to destroy the social safety net that I believe in - but I don't think that they are really looking to add to it too much (because of what happened in the 2010 midterms when they did). Still, I'm above all else, a realist. For example, I'll settle for not taking away health care for 25 million Americans before insisting on expanding it to everyone. Baby steps.

As for the Libertarian Party - meh. I actually believe you do need to have border controls (but not this crazy travel ban/wall/racial profiling bullshit) in order to safeguard your citizens. And frankly, citizens should be a priority for a government - otherwise, why have the concept of citizenship at all? As for drugs - well, I enjoy my alcohol (in moderation, of course - having a beer right now), and I enjoyed other stuff when I was younger. But now that I'm a "responsible adult" (allegedly), I find I don't miss it. Yes, there are some parts of the drug schedules that are bullshit. For example, I firmly believe that marijuana is illegal because the tobacco companies, all those years ago, saw a way to eliminate the competition and create a legally-enshrined monopoly on smokable narcotics. But you can't look at what's going on with the opioid epidemic (many of which are legal, albeit prescription, drugs) and tell me that "drugs for everyone" is a swell idea.

Anyway, I never thought I'd participate on an online politics board as much as I have here. Maybe that's because the people here are reasonable. And I've known most of you for years (and you know me).

would you say that socialism has ever been successful?  yeah, just import it to the rebel south (america).  they'll know what to do with power.  shit, their entire existence has been one struggle for power.  it's amazing there are any pseudo democracies down yonder.  democracy is the best human's can do and deserve.  let's face it.  you don't have to help anybody, but the least you can do is not hurt anybody.   whatever we have now seems to piss everyone one off equally.  maybe that's not such a bad arrangement.  welcome to america, asshole
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 13, 2017, 09:57:41 AM
Somewhere along the line, capitalism got twisted into this dog-eat-dog thing where capitalism works via survival of the fittest.  And it is your duty to be selfish so as to weed out the weak or something.  Libertarianism took a right turn, and Ron Paul and Rand Paul are of that school.

...

Post-Rand Libertarian is like post-Marx Communism.  The original idea was that you did not have to force it.  People would natural figure out that it was the best society.  If Smith and Marx were right, we just had to spread the word and wait.  But Libertarians nowadays are trying to force it just like Lenin did.  You canít bring about Libertarian society via government ruling.

Hang on a second...a thought just occurred to me, reading those sentences in close succession.

Did Ron Paul name his son after Ayn Rand?

Yes.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 13, 2017, 10:53:28 AM
no he didn't
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 13, 2017, 11:21:33 AM
So I looked it up. It turns out his name is Randal, and like many Randals, growing up, he went by Randy. His wife, not wanting him to sound like a '70s porn actor/sex offender/man with a bad mustache, shortened it to Rand.

I may have embellished some of that and introduced facts not in evidence
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 13, 2017, 12:54:19 PM
randy fingers has a lot of cache
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Buzzstein on November 13, 2017, 03:15:48 PM
You can have socialism in a democracy. That's what we have now in the United States -- to one degree or another.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 13, 2017, 03:42:50 PM
no he didn't

I know he CLAIMS he didn't.  I don't believe him.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 13, 2017, 03:46:17 PM
obviously, though i don't know why he'd give that falsehood since he adores her
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 13, 2017, 05:18:51 PM
So...how about the Alabama Republican Party nominating a child molester to run for the Senate?

We now know that some southern Republicans are so far up their own asses that they would rather vote for a child molester than a Democrat.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Drjohnrock on November 13, 2017, 09:36:07 PM
We now know that some southern Republicans are so far up their own asses that they would rather vote for a child molester than a Democrat.


In 2016 it was a white collar criminal and traitor.  This year it's a pedophile.  I predict 2018 will see Rethugs embrace a candidate who espouses cannibalism
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: euro60 on November 13, 2017, 10:36:30 PM
What is going on with the Alabama guy is beyond description, and I think that at some point sense will prevail, but of course I could be totally wrong. Then again, I've been wrong many times (and actually proud of that).

In the bigger picture, I foresee a bloodbath for the Republicans in next years mid-terms. Or is it just me wanting it to be?
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 14, 2017, 09:49:53 AM
I honestly don't understand why that guy's pedophilia is such a big deal. 

I mean, not that I think pedophilia is okay.  But it's like how is that the straw that broke the camel's back?  All the other stuff he has done should disqualify him 100 times over.  It would be like the Germans voting out Hitler because of Eva Braun.

Also, that is not one of those Godwin Law Hitler analogies.  Roy Moore is pretty much Hitler.

I think there very well might be a bloodbath for Republicans, but I'm not sure it helps the country that much.  You would think there would be no possible way a conservative party could fuck up Alabama.  Just pick someone who is mildly to moderately racist.  Which is pretty much, like every white person in Alabama.  So there's no shortage of options.  It's an easy win.  Strange would have been fine.  McConnell would have been fine.  Even Moore would have been fine if Trump had backed him from the start.

They're only in this position because Trump wanted McConnell for AG even though that was a terrible pick even if you are far right.  And then Trump endorsed Strange when Moore is more up his alley.  And then he tried to back out of endorsing Strange and spent his endorsement speech talking about the NFL. 

So, I think the GOP is in serious disarray.  But the overall picture is still that a horrible person was raised to AG, and then an even more horrible person was beaten by a even even more more horrible person.  The GOP in AL might turn on Moore, but they're not going to turn on his policies.

Look at all these crazy jackasses the GOP is trying to pack into the judiciary.  They're all pretty much Moore-alikes.  And they're all young, so they will be there for 20, 30, 40 years.  That doesn't seem to me like a party that has found its conscience.

Those people are not going to change.  If the far right is voted out of power, they will just become a terrorist organization.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 14, 2017, 10:03:14 AM
I think this is the straw that broke the camel's back because, like you said, lots of crackers in Alabama are mildly to moderately racist, but (hopefully) most of them are not child molesters.

Plus, there is an increased focus on sexual assault in general these days with Weinstein/Spacey/Louis C.K./et. al.

But, as we've seen, many of those mild-to-moderate racist crackers apparently feel that being a child molester is better than being a Democrat, and Roy Moore will probably still win, regardless.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 15, 2017, 01:55:50 AM
There's a section in the Wikipedia page about the Gadsden Mall discussing how Roy Moore may or may not be banned from it and definitely spent his 30s cruising for chicks there.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 15, 2017, 10:32:24 AM
y'all should police your hyperbole and xenophobia a bit better
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 15, 2017, 10:46:42 AM
Meh.  They just did a poll in Alabama and 35% of people said they were MORE likely to vote for Roy Moore now.

I have no problem calling idiots and/or assholes idiots and/or assholes.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 15, 2017, 10:51:41 AM
well i obviously can't explain that but my good friend jimmy from muscle shoals ain't no racist.  nor can it be possible for all of birmingham's hipsters to be racist.   it's part of hipster bylaw.  and george wallace wasn't even a racist
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 15, 2017, 11:04:09 AM
and george wallace wasn't even a racist

I beg to differ.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 15, 2017, 11:06:51 AM
not according to the drive by truckers.  just a man who'll do or say anything to get elected
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 15, 2017, 11:38:30 AM
It's probably not a good idea to take history lessons from Patterson Hood, unless maybe it is about Southern soul and rock music. 

Anyway, pretty sure Patterson Hood probably would call Wallace a racist.  All he's ever said of Wallace is that his racist stances may have been more a result of his ego and power thirst instead of an underlying philosophy.  It's not like he actually defends him.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Kwyjibo on November 15, 2017, 03:18:51 PM
George Wallace was a turbo racist.  I have no idea where you get this shit.

If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck it's probably a duck, even if it's only a duck because it wants to wear a sailor suit with no pants.  Motivations don't change realities.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 15, 2017, 07:09:41 PM
y'all should police your hyperbole and xenophobia a bit better

Hold up and read again - first of all, no xenophobia. I'm a white Southerner calling out other white Southerners for being racist. Nothing more than garden variety cracker-on-cracker violence.

Secondly, read what I read carefully - I didn't say "all crackers" or "most crackers", but "a lot of crackers". So no hyperbole, either.

As for George Wallace - I get where you're coming from. It's pretty well-known that his racism got more hardline and conservative as his political profile increased, and that, early in his career as both a judge and low-level politician, he was fairly moderate in his views (for a white, male, Southerner, at least). But the fact is that, as both governor and a presidential candidate, he was a virulent racist.

You can argue the reasons and motivations behind it. Personally, I think that "he was telling the voters what they wanted to hear" and "he was just saying it to get elected", as a best-case scenario, makes him a spineless prevaricator. It doesn't redeem him in the slightest, and shows that he has no real moral principles.

Besides, the guy is known for saying "segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever." That shit can't be reconciled.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 16, 2017, 08:24:36 AM
i wasn't referring to you directly jonathan, just the overall tenor of the political forum in general
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 16, 2017, 09:06:25 AM
Fair enough. Still not sure where the xenophobia comes in. Maybe on other threads.

Don't think I haven't forgotten about the socialism/capitalism posts, either. Still needing the time and headspace to properly respond to that one. Don't think you're off the hook there. ;)
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 16, 2017, 10:21:21 AM
If thinking that George Wallace and people that support Roy Moore makes me a bigot.  That's fine.  I'm bigoted against bigotry.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 16, 2017, 10:44:42 AM
Fair enough. Still not sure where the xenophobia comes in. Maybe on other threads.

Don't think I haven't forgotten about the socialism/capitalism posts, either. Still needing the time and headspace to properly respond to that one. Don't think you're off the hook there. ;)

i've said so many clever things. 

maybe i'm naive about all this rampant racism.  i feel that if any state would embrace equality more than any other would be alabama and mississippi.  they've been at it harder than most and you'd figure they'd learn how to get along with one another.  or at the very least tolerate each other.  forgive me if this is getting off topic.  do you imagine that people black and white are proud to be from alabama?   
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 16, 2017, 10:46:35 AM
George Wallace was a turbo racist.  I have no idea where you get this shit.

If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck it's probably a duck, even if it's only a duck because it wants to wear a sailor suit with no pants.  Motivations don't change realities.

i was being a bit tongue in cheek.  a laugh.   i'm more of a mike cooley fan anyway
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: foolsgold on November 16, 2017, 11:08:31 AM
i feel that if any state would embrace equality more than any other would be alabama and mississippi.  they've been at it harder than most and you'd figure they'd learn how to get along with one another.  or at the very least tolerate each other.  forgive me if this is getting off topic.  do you imagine that people black and white are proud to be from alabama?   

I don't think that this is too far off the mark, at least based on my experiences.  I see far more social segregation in northern places like Cincinnati than I did in a place like Birmingham.  Here, all the hip restaurants in formerly black neighborhoods, have white people in the front of the house, and people of color in the kitchen/washing dishes.  Seeing POCs as bartenders, waiters, owners of the bars, coffee shops, venues, and restaurants I visited was something that really made an impression.  Even going to a baseball game or a juke joint, there seemed to be a balance between white and black (especially, but not exclusively) and there seemed to be an ease in how they interacted with each other that I don't typically see in northern cities.

Obviously I'm not saying that those places are absolute beacons of hope and integration and I'm sure that the expression of racism takes on a different form in those states, but on the surface, they seem to be making a better show of it than the "enlightened" north.  Like, are Southerners more likely to smile to POCs faces and trash them when their backs are turned?  Where as a lot of northerners won't even look in their direction.  That's my guess.  I'm interested to hear if my experience jives with RVA, Lando, LMNOP, etc who actually live in the south.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 16, 2017, 01:48:19 PM
i feel that if any state would embrace equality more than any other would be alabama and mississippi. 

You might feel that way.  I mean, you're dead wrong, but whatever.  You feel what you want and don't let those pesky facts get in the way.

Everyone in Alabama is either a member of, or listens to Drive-By Truckers.  They all feel horrendously bad about their state' past.  And they are working very hard to change it by supporting tireless crusaders for racial equality like Sessions, Moore, and Cotton.


Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Kwyjibo on November 16, 2017, 03:55:21 PM

You might feel that way.  I mean, you're dead wrong, but whatever.  You feel what you want and don't let those pesky facts get in the way.

Everyone in Alabama is either a member of, or listens to Drive-By Truckers.  They all feel horrendously bad about their state' past.  And they are working very hard to change it by supporting tireless crusaders for racial equality like Sessions, Moore, and Cotton.

Epic.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Jonathan on November 16, 2017, 08:22:51 PM
Like, are Southerners more likely to smile to POCs faces and trash them when their backs are turned?

Yes. It's the Southern way.

If a Southerner ever says to you, "bless your heart," you have been massively, supremely insulted. Because what that means is, "I think you're a complete piece of shit who is not worthy of any more of my time nor energy, and I would like to end this conversation and go now." But we've been raised to be polite.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 16, 2017, 10:39:33 PM
I don't think Richmond is all that Southern.

The problems in the city itself are exacerbated by hundreds of years of segregation for sure, but the racial problems here are typical urban issues.

There are inner city public housing projects that are pretty much entirely black.  Visitors are told to "avoid the Courts" which is what they named the projects-- Gilpin Court, Hillside Court, Creighton Court, Mosby Court, etc.  These are small, but dangerous areas.  I don't know that they have formal gangs, but people get shot there regularly.  This year has been especially bad.

Outside of the projects, the city is still largely divided into historically white areas and historically black areas.  It was designed that way.  I is not an accident that Monument Avenue is lined with statues of Lee, Jackson, and Stuart.  Or that the Downtown express cuts perfectly right at the border of the historic Fan district which is probably like 90% white, and the area South which was until recently majority black.

The only really mixed areas are the areas that are being gentrified.  And I don't consider them truly mixed because they are not stable.  For example, Jackson Ward is a historically black district.  It used to be what constituted sort of an upper-class black neighborhood (though obviously "upper class" for blacks in the early 1900's was not upper class for whites).  There's lots of cool cultural history there, eg. lots of famous jazz musicians played there.

It was a horrible area up until even a few years ago.  Lots of shootings, lots of druggies and drug sales in the open.  The houses though, are historic.  In the last few years though, it's become kind of a hipster-y area. It's much safer now, though it's very variable block-to-block.  But it's not going to stay a mixed area.  Housing prices are skyrocketing and more and more hipster bars and stuff are moving in. 

TBF, it's not really a black/white thing.  There were poor white areas in Richmond as well, eg. Oregon Hill, that in the space of really maybe five years went from a kinda horrible redneck haven with broken cars in the yards and stuff to an expensive, up-and-coming area for well-off young professionals.

There used to be a biking trail I rode on that took me through both Oregon Hill and the South of Cary/Byrd Park area.  One time I rode it and a bunch of black teens chased me down the street throwing rocks.  Then, five minutes later some white dude in Oregon Hill casually leveled his shotgun at me as a I rode past his house.  I could ride that same route now and be accompanied by 15 other bikers.  Houses in those areas are going for $300k+, which is expensive for this area.

The thing is, Richmond is ridiculously liberal.  It's filled with VCU professors, urban hipster, students, and black people.  I think Clinton got like 85 or 90% of the vote.

Also, Richmond is a good example of what drives conservatives (rightly) mad.  If you are Republican, you have no chance of getting on City Council.  And historically, the people that win are not just liberal but minorities or people that play up race issues to appeal to the black inner city.  And they are both corrupt and incompetent.  Joe Morrissey and Doug Wilder are two that have some national prominence (Morrissey particularly is a piece of work).  But there have been many others, including the last mayor.  There was one point I think where half the city council were facing Federal charges, none of them related.  The City Council has for decades been run by liberals who promise the world to minorities and/or the poor and constantly screw them over.

So there are deep and serious racial issues here.  But... culturally it's not that racist in attitude.  Black and white people don't live together, and no one goes to the projects.  But VCU is mixed.  Downtown is pretty mixed during working hours.  I walk the streets and rarely get insults thrown at me.

The suburbs are sort of the opposite.  They are kind of mixed.  Especially considering that is where all the Asians and Latinos tend to live as well.  Which makes sense.  There's more space/privacy.  People tend to have money, and suburbia tends to be pretty generic anyway.  So yeah, the malls are there and if you go you will see whites and POC's happily shopping together at the Gap.

But the suburbs have much bigger problems with race, IMO.  This is because the outer edges of the suburbs now are reaching into redneck territory.  And because of white flight type stuff.  And it's not like whites and POC's really hang out.  It's the suburbs so you go into your house and curse your black or white neighbors in private.  It's all "hidden."  Of course there are plenty-- likely the vast majority-- of just typical non-racist suburbanites out there, too.  They're only sort of structurally racist in that they are nuts about good schools, and good schools=white schools but that's a historical vestige.  They wouldn't care if a bunch of black (or more often Asian) geniuses ended up in their neighborhoods.

Then outside of the suburbs is sort of farmland which is kind of racist though not like, BAD racist.  Just people kind of stuck in the past.  They distrust outsiders and stereotype them, but race is just one stereotype.  You know, like Northerners are X, blacks are like Y, and city people are like Z.  No one's going to say anything to your face, and they will treat you nicely, and they maybe don't necessarily hate you, they just think you are different and should stay with your own type.

Then after that, it's poor white rural areas that are racist as hell.  And all of these circles are within a 30 mile radius of Richmond.

Richmond has race issues because historically it was segregated and because it is city that has typical city problems.  The 'burbs don't have race issues but they are hugely racist in that they are pulling out all the stops to prevent problems.  They won't do public housing, they won't do public transportation, they build these gigantic four lane roads that 8 cars could drive one, with a median strip in the middle.  My parents live maybe a 5-10 minute walk away from the big suburban mall in Richmond.  Except they can't walk there because there are no sidewalks.  There aren't even crosswalks.  They don't want people walking in the open.  You stay in your house, or your subdivision.

So yeah, it's pretty much a poor vs rich or urban vs suburban vs rural thing here that I would say is typical across the US.  If you go to the West Coast cities there is a greater mix of races for sure.  But the attitude/culture isn't that different. 

Cincinnati doesn't seem much different.  You are right up next to Appalachia, so you have the same rural poor types in close proximity.  You have the business centers and intellectual centers and urban hipster areas.  And the burbs.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Markalot on November 17, 2017, 09:15:52 AM
Hmmm.

I am extremely prejudice against southerners.  I know it's wrong but I can't get over the thick accent.

In general (not targeted at anyone here) ...

I am growing tired of the comparisons of Roy ... I'd like to dork a 14 year old girl ... and other creeps who stick their tongues in women's mouths or pretend to fondle boobies.  I'd also like to know what kind of creep want's to jerk off in front of women.  Seriously, wtf is that anyway?  And yes, all this crap will probably be somehow related to the midterm elections.  We need more women in politics. 
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: notoriouspbake on November 17, 2017, 10:11:15 AM
prediction:

franken will be harshly censured by congress or encouraged to remove himself from office. roy moore will not only win alabama, but will not face any penalty for his crimes.

and that's where we are in america, 2017.

Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Kwyjibo on November 17, 2017, 10:54:01 AM
Yeah, I know it's easy to feel that way, but I don't see any way that Roy Moore is going to get out of this like nothing happened.  You may be right about Franken, but I'm pretty sure Moore will end up going down.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: Zafer Kaya on November 17, 2017, 11:06:31 AM
I think if all they have on Franken is that picture then he gets censured but stays.  It looks like there might be more though, and if so then he resigns, or is expelled. 

Moore also wins, but is expelled because they want that seat but they never liked Moore to start with.  They're getting what they actually wanted all along.  If they can appoint Sessions to the seat and remove him as AG even better because then they can appoint another AG who doesn't have to recuse himself from the Russia investigation.   It's a wet dream for them.

And what it is sad is that ultimately people love to bitch about Congress, but in this case they will have acted more ethically than the people.  Regardless of motivation, they will have pushed out two sexual harrassers/assaulters.  The people OTOH, will have voted Moore in.
Title: Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Post by: daytime drinking on November 17, 2017, 11:10:48 AM

You might feel that way.  I mean, you're dead wrong, but whatever.  You feel what you want and don't let those pesky facts get in the way.

Everyone in Alabama is either a member of, or listens to Drive-By Truckers.  They all feel horrendously bad about their state' past.  And they are working very hard to change it by supporting tireless crusaders for racial equality like Sessions, Moore, and Cotton.

Epic.

i'll let it die after this, but i refuse to believe how epic that is.  i'm not supporting these people you know.  i also wasn't suggesting that there wasn't an ample amount of racism in the state. it could be that.  i'd wager it's more ignorance and generations of provincialism which leads people to vote like this.  i don't know, i haven't conversed with folks in the belly of america but i do know that i'd rather not label people racist so casually.  not that there aren't in fact actual racists out there