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Randomville! => The Locker Room => Topic started by: euro60 on January 30, 2018, 10:37:54 PM

Title: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on January 30, 2018, 10:37:54 PM
Incredibly, Opening Day is less than 2 months away (March 29).

Today, they signed 37 yr. old reliever David Hernandez to a two-year contract. Hum....

I am trying to get optimistic about the upcoming season, but I'm struggling, to be honest.

Other than the Pirates having dismantled their team, is there any reason to think the Reds will finish 4th at best in the division?
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on January 31, 2018, 08:32:43 AM
i thought he was 32
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on January 31, 2018, 09:31:20 AM
ESPN reported him being 37, and that the 2 year deal is worth $5 mill.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on January 31, 2018, 10:33:01 AM
Baseball Reference says he's 32, almost 33
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on February 02, 2018, 12:28:49 PM
i'm so shocked i was right. 

bold predictions for the year.  jesse winker bats leadoff around the all star break and the reds finish .500
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on February 02, 2018, 01:40:09 PM
Fangraphs has you down for a not-terrible-but-not-good 72-90 season.  Still last in the NL Central though.  5 games behind the Brewers, 6 games behind the Pirates, 16 games behind the Cards, and 20 games behind the Cubs.

Still a decent improvement over last year.  Especially when you consider they do not have big playing time projections for Winker, and they are conservative about projecting improvement for young players.  There's more upside than downside to that projection, but then again there usually is when the projection is bad.

Your batting and pitching are projected to be about equally as bad.  The big area for improvement is the pitching.  They think all of your starters suck bad except Castillo.  Everyone else has a 4.50+ projection, except for what looks like a not-horrendous 20 IP late-season cup of coffee for Cody Reed.

They don't really take into account actual division and schedule.  So if one or two teams in the Central suck worse than anticipated that will probably jack up the Reds record.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on February 02, 2018, 01:50:09 PM
i don't see the offense being a problem.  there is depth in talent and not enough room to give everyone who deserves it enough playing time.  nick senzel needs to be playing soon too.  pitching will be trial and error.  pittsburgh has got to suck
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on February 02, 2018, 02:12:52 PM
Well, looking at the offense they have Votto taking a big step down to a (still impressive) 4.5 WAR.  He's getting dragged down by "No one is THAT good" regression to the mean, that he won't play as many games, and probably on an aging model. 

So if your assumption is that Votto stays healthy all year, then you can add 1.5-2 games to the win column right there.

They also think your OF sucks horribly.  Which is tbf, is accurate if the OF is Schebler, Duvall, and Hamilton.  But if you replace one or two slots with a decent Winker and Ervin, that's probably another 2-3 games.

They also see Peraza as Hamilton-esque clone.  Better power and fewer steals, but basically still fast players with mediocre BA who don't draw walks.  I know you like Peraza so if you are right and they are wrong, that's maybe another game or two.

... and that would get the Reds to just about .500.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on February 03, 2018, 12:05:40 AM
... and that would get the Reds to just about .500.
woohoo, so excited <rolling eyes>
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on February 03, 2018, 12:32:47 PM
.500 would probably get price an extension.  it be heading in the right direction probably a year ahead of schedule.  the outfield is elite defensively, maybe  makes up for their lack of getting on base.  if mez is healthy, that's a potent latter part of the battery.  keep those boys fresh.  mez is gonna club twenty dingers and tuck gon' win a gold glove.  if pitching solidifies, woah brother
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on February 03, 2018, 11:14:15 PM
I dunno, man.  I feel like .500 would be the worst thing that could happen to Price.

I get the sense he just hangs on to his job because the Reds are like, ďScrew it, weíre going to suck anyway.Ē  If they improve to .500, with good young players, that job will be more appealing and they can bring in someone better.

Itíll be like the Cubs with Rick Renteria.  Except Renteria ended up being so good it actually became awkward to fire him.  Whereas Price sucks. 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on February 04, 2018, 09:28:58 AM
i think he's just now finally getting a fair shake.  he walked into a situation that was out of his control.  of course, he could just as well be terrible with a good roster as a shitty one.  now we can find out.  not sure how much difference it makes honestly. 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on February 13, 2018, 10:48:54 PM
Catchers and pitchers are starting workouts tomorrow! Spring is around the corner! Yessssssssss

And Opening Day (moved up this year) is only 6 weeks away! Woohoo!
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on April 01, 2018, 11:30:02 PM
I entertained clients at our firm's suite on Saturday. Sad, just sad (talking about the Reds' play). The Reds had, not once, but twice, the bases loaded and zero outs. And what did they do? NADA.

One client commented "well we have great food and great company", and that just about sums it up.

I have zero expectations about the Reds anywhere being competitive again this year.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on April 02, 2018, 02:59:54 PM
You're giving up way too soon.  538 gives the Reds a full 6% chance of making the playoffs.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on April 05, 2018, 11:07:59 PM
You're giving up way too soon.  538 gives the Reds a full 6% chance of making the playoffs.
Am I? Reds are 1-4 and looked lost tonight in Pittsburgh, yet again.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but man...
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on April 06, 2018, 01:18:30 AM
You're giving up way too soon.  538 gives the Reds a full 6% chance of making the playoffs.
Am I? Reds are 1-4 and looked lost tonight in Pittsburgh, yet again.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but man...

Well, I mean a 6% chance does make them the 5th worst team in baseball and finish last in the NL Central by 11 games.  So I mean, they suck really bad.  What it really says is there use for even the suckiest of MLB teams.  At least 5 games into the season.  They have had a tough schedule so far with the Nationals and Cubs.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on April 06, 2018, 09:31:12 AM
it's looking pretty bad so far.  i'll start to worry once the middle of may comes around.  i'm really hoping jesse winker is the next coming of cap anson
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on April 06, 2018, 11:27:27 PM
Did anyone see what happened at tonight's game in Pittsburgh? Just embarrassing all the way around.

Now 1-5 and already 4.5 games out of first place. After one week of play. Wow.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on April 07, 2018, 12:18:07 AM
Did anyone see what happened at tonight's game in Pittsburgh? Just embarrassing all the way around.

Now 1-5 and already 4.5 games out of first place. After one week of play. Wow.

so you care?  cut it out euro, you're embarrassing yourself
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 08, 2018, 10:12:35 AM
i might have been wrong on homer bailey.  and this entire team.  damn girl, dey's bad

it'll get better though, right? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 08, 2018, 10:56:30 AM
ZK, I gotta hand it to you.  You said years ago that it was time to blow it up a couple of years before they did.  And by then it was too late. 

This roster sucks, and there aren't a lot of good prospects of improvement right now.  Turrible.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 09, 2018, 08:20:02 AM
ZK, I gotta hand it to you.  You said years ago that it was time to blow it up a couple of years before they did.  And by then it was too late. 

This roster sucks, and there aren't a lot of good prospects of improvement right now.  Turrible.

uhm, everyone but reds management said that
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 09, 2018, 09:21:36 AM
ZK, I gotta hand it to you.  You said years ago that it was time to blow it up a couple of years before they did.  And by then it was too late. 

This roster sucks, and there aren't a lot of good prospects of improvement right now.  Turrible.

uhm, everyone but reds management said that

Um, I didn't.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 09, 2018, 12:22:07 PM
it was pretty obvious they held onto everyone a year to a few years longer than they did.  after bryan price's second year at least, they shoulda started spring cleaning.  the core wasn't getting it done and folks started to command more money.  still don't know why they didn't offer cueto homie bailey's contract

what time frame are you talking about? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 09, 2018, 12:24:36 PM
it was pretty obvious they held onto everyone a year to a few years longer than they did.  after bryan price's second year at least, they shoulda started spring cleaning.  the core wasn't getting it done and folks started to command more money.  still don't know why they didn't offer cueto homie bailey's contract

what time frame are you talking about? 

Earlier than that.  I think he was talking about it during Dusty's last year or maybe even next to last.  I'd have to go digging for the comment, and I'm lazy.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 09, 2018, 12:50:26 PM
dusty made the playoffs his last year.  they lost to the pirates in the wild wild card.  the year before they should have won the world series.  in hindsight, they never shoulda fired dusty.  but that's what dusty does
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 09, 2018, 01:35:20 PM
It's all over the 2013 thread, even before the playoff game they lost to Pittsburgh.  I was arguing against a rebuild, which seems a solid position coming off a 90-win season.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 09, 2018, 03:42:00 PM
damn girl.  you goin way back.  jesus. that's a pretty tough sell
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on May 09, 2018, 09:26:34 PM
It would have been hard to blow up a good team.

But the issue was that team was as good as it was going to get, and was probably already just past itís prime.  If the Reds stood pat, they might have at best one more year of wildcard left in them, which is crappy WS odds anyway.  They had already paid kind of a high price to keep the window open as long as they did as they gave out some big contract extensions to players like Phillips who you knew were not going to last the length of the deal.

But by trading some or all of their players while they had a fair amount of value, they could have gotten a bevy of great prospects.  Enough so that they could well be contending with an exciting team right now.  Instead itís Milwaukee.  It would have been a risk and taken some out-of-the-box thinking but smaller clubs like the Reds have to do that.  The Cubs can carry $30m of deadweight, the Respds cannot.

Still, they could have rebuilt much sooner than they did.  That really cost them.  And, when they did rebuild they could have gone whole hog and asked for top ceiling, low minors talent.  Instead they went for Peraza, Finnigan and Desclafini types with lower potential but who were closer to the bigs.

Right now, the Reds have a decent Farm system.  Maybe between ten and fifteenth in MLB.  But an average Farm plus a putrid parent club does not spell contender.  Theyíll get better, but the ceiling looks like .500.  This generation isnít going to cut it.  They will get some good draft picks the next couple seasons, but those picks will arrive too late to even help the semi-decent young guys like Peraza and Winker.

So my 2018 suggestion for the Reds is to blow up this half-ass rebuild. Trade all of your decent young MLB players and B+ prospects including Senzel if necessary for raw, young high ceiling players in the low minors.  Add to that what is likely to be 2-3 years of high draft picks and you will have a stellar group of talent that has played with each other through the minors and are all ready to hit MLB at once in 2021-22 or so.  Then you will have a nice 4 or 5 year window.

Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on May 09, 2018, 11:33:48 PM
view from the ground: our law firm has had a corporate suite since GABP opened in 2003, and I have been very active over all those years in entertaining clients and friends of the firm, and typically to great effect (marketing wise). Fast forward to 2018: despite all the perks of the corporate suite (food and drinks, among them), I am having the HARDEST time to get any clients to come. It's just exasperating. And of course I'm not the only one in the firm. Needless to say, this suite does not come cheap (hundreds of thousands of dollars). We are now at the point where the firm is questioning the cost of keeping the suite.

I am one that argues that, yes, we should, because once we give up the suite, we'll never get it back and the Reds will get better, "eventually". Plus it is in my experience one of the best ways to entertain clients and create good will. But of course there is the expense....

Our firm is now also getting the occasional corporate suite at the FC Cincinnati games. And guess what... client interest and demand is enormous. We have to turn people away. The cost of that suite is similar to the Reds suite we have (per game). So now we are evaluating.

Bottom line: the Reds are so pathetic right now, and for the foreseeable future, it really threatens their corporate base. And that is bad news for the Reds.

I myself bought season tix for FCC this year, and I'm just not that interested in going to a Reds game, unless it is client-related. The Reds are now clearly competing for entertainment dollars against FCC, an idea that was unimaginable just 2 year ago. This is the new reality. And with FCC's expected MLS acceptance at some point, that is only going to get worse for the Reds, unless they finally figure out a way to get back to being truly competitive, like in the 2010-2013 days (when client interest and demand was sky high).
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 10, 2018, 07:54:55 AM
view from the ground: our law firm has had a corporate suite since GABP opened in 2003, and I have been very active over all those years in entertaining clients and friends of the firm, and typically to great effect (marketing wise). Fast forward to 2018: despite all the perks of the corporate suite (food and drinks, among them), I am having the HARDEST time to get any clients to come. It's just exasperating. And of course I'm not the only one in the firm. Needless to say, this suite does not come cheap (hundreds of thousands of dollars). We are now at the point where the firm is questioning the cost of keeping the suite.

I am one that argues that, yes, we should, because once we give up the suite, we'll never get it back and the Reds will get better, "eventually". Plus it is in my experience one of the best ways to entertain clients and create good will. But of course there is the expense....

Our firm is now also getting the occasional corporate suite at the FC Cincinnati games. And guess what... client interest and demand is enormous. We have to turn people away. The cost of that suite is similar to the Reds suite we have (per game). So now we are evaluating.

Bottom line: the Reds are so pathetic right now, and for the foreseeable future, it really threatens their corporate base. And that is bad news for the Reds.

I myself bought season tix for FCC this year, and I'm just not that interested in going to a Reds game, unless it is client-related. The Reds are now clearly competing for entertainment dollars against FCC, an idea that was unimaginable just 2 year ago. This is the new reality. And with FCC's expected MLS acceptance at some point, that is only going to get worse for the Reds, unless they finally figure out a way to get back to being truly competitive, like in the 2010-2013 days (when client interest and demand was sky high).

I'll be glad to use that suite.  Just let me know.  I am definitely in the market for some corporate law work.  DEFINITELY.  THIS IS NOT A PLOY OF ANY SORT.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Kwyjibo on May 10, 2018, 09:19:28 AM
I always wanted to tort... or something.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on May 10, 2018, 12:18:26 PM
view from the ground: our law firm has had a corporate suite since GABP opened in 2003, and I have been very active over all those years in entertaining clients and friends of the firm, and typically to great effect (marketing wise). Fast forward to 2018: despite all the perks of the corporate suite (food and drinks, among them), I am having the HARDEST time to get any clients to come. It's just exasperating. And of course I'm not the only one in the firm. Needless to say, this suite does not come cheap (hundreds of thousands of dollars). We are now at the point where the firm is questioning the cost of keeping the suite.

I am one that argues that, yes, we should, because once we give up the suite, we'll never get it back and the Reds will get better, "eventually". Plus it is in my experience one of the best ways to entertain clients and create good will. But of course there is the expense....

Our firm is now also getting the occasional corporate suite at the FC Cincinnati games. And guess what... client interest and demand is enormous. We have to turn people away. The cost of that suite is similar to the Reds suite we have (per game). So now we are evaluating.

Bottom line: the Reds are so pathetic right now, and for the foreseeable future, it really threatens their corporate base. And that is bad news for the Reds.

I myself bought season tix for FCC this year, and I'm just not that interested in going to a Reds game, unless it is client-related. The Reds are now clearly competing for entertainment dollars against FCC, an idea that was unimaginable just 2 year ago. This is the new reality. And with FCC's expected MLS acceptance at some point, that is only going to get worse for the Reds, unless they finally figure out a way to get back to being truly competitive, like in the 2010-2013 days (when client interest and demand was sky high).


Can't blame your firm for having misgivings about keeping the suite.  I wonder if the Reds have a waiting list of companies waiting to get suites. Even if they do, I wonder how many of those companies are still interested in having suites.  Would the Reds offer a discount to firms like yours who are thinking of bolting?  I doubt it. 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 10, 2018, 12:26:55 PM
view from the ground: our law firm has had a corporate suite since GABP opened in 2003, and I have been very active over all those years in entertaining clients and friends of the firm, and typically to great effect (marketing wise). Fast forward to 2018: despite all the perks of the corporate suite (food and drinks, among them), I am having the HARDEST time to get any clients to come. It's just exasperating. And of course I'm not the only one in the firm. Needless to say, this suite does not come cheap (hundreds of thousands of dollars). We are now at the point where the firm is questioning the cost of keeping the suite.

I am one that argues that, yes, we should, because once we give up the suite, we'll never get it back and the Reds will get better, "eventually". Plus it is in my experience one of the best ways to entertain clients and create good will. But of course there is the expense....

Our firm is now also getting the occasional corporate suite at the FC Cincinnati games. And guess what... client interest and demand is enormous. We have to turn people away. The cost of that suite is similar to the Reds suite we have (per game). So now we are evaluating.

Bottom line: the Reds are so pathetic right now, and for the foreseeable future, it really threatens their corporate base. And that is bad news for the Reds.

I myself bought season tix for FCC this year, and I'm just not that interested in going to a Reds game, unless it is client-related. The Reds are now clearly competing for entertainment dollars against FCC, an idea that was unimaginable just 2 year ago. This is the new reality. And with FCC's expected MLS acceptance at some point, that is only going to get worse for the Reds, unless they finally figure out a way to get back to being truly competitive, like in the 2010-2013 days (when client interest and demand was sky high).

I'll be glad to use that suite.  Just let me know.  I am definitely in the market for some corporate law work.  DEFINITELY.  THIS IS NOT A PLOY OF ANY SORT.

can i attach myself to your posse? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: notoriouspbake on May 10, 2018, 06:04:21 PM
view from the ground: our law firm has had a corporate suite since GABP opened in 2003, and I have been very active over all those years in entertaining clients and friends of the firm, and typically to great effect (marketing wise). Fast forward to 2018: despite all the perks of the corporate suite (food and drinks, among them), I am having the HARDEST time to get any clients to come. It's just exasperating. And of course I'm not the only one in the firm. Needless to say, this suite does not come cheap (hundreds of thousands of dollars). We are now at the point where the firm is questioning the cost of keeping the suite.

I am one that argues that, yes, we should, because once we give up the suite, we'll never get it back and the Reds will get better, "eventually". Plus it is in my experience one of the best ways to entertain clients and create good will. But of course there is the expense....

Our firm is now also getting the occasional corporate suite at the FC Cincinnati games. And guess what... client interest and demand is enormous. We have to turn people away. The cost of that suite is similar to the Reds suite we have (per game). So now we are evaluating.

Bottom line: the Reds are so pathetic right now, and for the foreseeable future, it really threatens their corporate base. And that is bad news for the Reds.

I myself bought season tix for FCC this year, and I'm just not that interested in going to a Reds game, unless it is client-related. The Reds are now clearly competing for entertainment dollars against FCC, an idea that was unimaginable just 2 year ago. This is the new reality. And with FCC's expected MLS acceptance at some point, that is only going to get worse for the Reds, unless they finally figure out a way to get back to being truly competitive, like in the 2010-2013 days (when client interest and demand was sky high).

I'll be glad to use that suite.  Just let me know.  I am definitely in the market for some corporate law work.  DEFINITELY.  THIS IS NOT A PLOY OF ANY SORT.

can i attach myself to your posse?

i've watched every iteration of law and order, so i'm basically a lawyer. does that count?
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on May 10, 2018, 09:23:24 PM
I think euro's firm is looking for clients who have gazillions to hire them.  If you fit in that category, you'll soon be watching the Reds and enjoying food and drink in one of the best seats in the ballpark.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on May 10, 2018, 10:15:40 PM
Prediction for tomorrow night's Reds game:  Matt Harvey won't get out of the first inning and will allow six earned runs.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on May 10, 2018, 11:33:26 PM
I think euro's firm is looking for clients who have gazillions to hire them.  If you fit in that category, you'll soon be watching the Reds and enjoying food and drink in one of the best seats in the ballpark.
you got the right idea, Drjohn, as always
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on May 10, 2018, 11:35:14 PM
Prediction for tomorrow night's Reds game:  Matt Harvey won't get out of the first inning and will allow six earned runs.
I'm gonna challenge on that....Matt Harvey will last 5 innings, 3 runs....
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 11, 2018, 08:00:24 AM
I think euro's firm is looking for clients who have gazillions to hire them.  If you fit in that category, you'll soon be watching the Reds and enjoying food and drink in one of the best seats in the ballpark.

How do you know I don't have gazillions?  Maybe I was the WOXY angel investor.  YOU DON'T KNOW ME.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on May 11, 2018, 08:59:55 AM
I think euro's firm is looking for clients who have gazillions to hire them.  If you fit in that category, you'll soon be watching the Reds and enjoying food and drink in one of the best seats in the ballpark.

How do you know I don't have gazillions?  Maybe I was the WOXY angel investor.  YOU DON'T KNOW ME.


That's why I said "if you fit in that category."  For all I know, you could buy and sell Bill Gates.  If you have gazillions, I  hope you take a selfie of yourself and euro in the corporate suite at GABP and post it on here.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on May 11, 2018, 09:01:03 AM
Prediction for tomorrow night's Reds game:  Matt Harvey won't get out of the first inning and will allow six earned runs.
I'm gonna challenge on that....Matt Harvey will last 5 innings, 3 runs....



I hope you're right.  But maybe it will be somewhere in the middle, like 3 innings, four runs.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on May 11, 2018, 09:20:45 AM
I think euro's firm is looking for clients who have gazillions to hire them.  If you fit in that category, you'll soon be watching the Reds and enjoying food and drink in one of the best seats in the ballpark.

How do you know I don't have gazillions?  Maybe I was the WOXY angel investor.  YOU DON'T KNOW ME.


That's why I said "if you fit in that category."  For all I know, you could buy and sell Bill Gates.  If you have gazillions, I  hope you take a selfie of yourself and euro in the corporate suite at GABP and post it on here.

I've already taken my corporate law business elsewhere.  If you can't handle me at my worst...
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on May 11, 2018, 10:12:45 AM
I'm gonna say Harvey manages to go six somewhat shaky innings, yielding 3 ER.

I also think that Harvey is not quite as crappy as people think, and his struggles are not just because he parties too much.  I think Thoracic Outlet Syndrome has robbed him of his velocity and he's just not the same pitcher any more.  But he can probably come to terms with that and learn how to get by throwing junk.  He'll suck, but he can be just another boring 5th or 6th starter with a 4.50-5.00 ERA.  Which really, is all the Reds need from him.  As long as he can eat some innings.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 11, 2018, 12:03:08 PM
I'm gonna say Harvey manages to go six somewhat shaky innings, yielding 3 ER.

I also think that Harvey is not quite as crappy as people think, and his struggles are not just because he parties too much.  I think Thoracic Outlet Syndrome has robbed him of his velocity and he's just not the same pitcher any more.  But he can probably come to terms with that and learn how to get by throwing junk.  He'll suck, but he can be just another boring 5th or 6th starter with a 4.50-5.00 ERA.  Which really, is all the Reds need from him.  As long as he can eat some innings.

how is a 4.50- 5.00 not crappy? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on May 11, 2018, 10:02:54 PM
Well I mean it is kind of crappy.  But most teams are going to have someone eating 150 IP at that level. 

You will have teams in the playoff hunt with a hole in their rotation due to injury or simply to give their starters a bit of rest.  If Harvey can pitch at that level, I think the Reds can flip him for a junky prospect and he will have served his purpose.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on May 12, 2018, 12:30:22 AM
I'm gonna say Harvey manages to go six somewhat shaky innings, yielding 3 ER.

I also think that Harvey is not quite as crappy as people think
4 innings, no runs allowed, and looking quite good, in fact very good. so yea, not quite as crappy as people think

Not sure why he was pulled after 4 innings, he looked in total control.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on May 12, 2018, 11:23:01 AM


Not sure why he was pulled after 4 innings, he looked in total control.



The Mets demoted him to the bullpen so he hadn't started in awhile.  Riggleman said his innings last night would be limited.  They're trying to gradually stretch out his innings.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM
thank god ole kremmy is our team's physician.    apparently he can be a loose cannon in the operating room and remain competent enough to keep his prestigious job, how does that work?

the dodgers suck balls.  jamie moyer could have beaten them.  what's he, sixty now?  billy hamilton had 26 stolen bases and this time last year.  he's got five so far despite being on base more.  i love baseball
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on May 31, 2018, 01:08:06 AM
Benching Winker is hilariously stupid.

Honestly, if I were the owner of a team and the GM told me he wanted to bench Winker for bad defense I would fire him instantly.  Like no debate, discussion, or ordering him to play Winker, just the pink slip.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on May 31, 2018, 08:56:31 PM
i didn't hear about that.  yeah he's gotta be playing everyday.  he's part of your rebuild.  if he wasn't producing, that's one thing.  but he's batting decent and gets on base a lot.  not many reds do, and the ones that do, are at a pretty high clip.  like half the team is really good at getting on base and the others strike out.  pereza is playing well though despite not getting on base much.  am i looking to much into getting on base?  i think it's the most important indicator of a good hitter.  you could bat in the low .200's and still get on base a fair amount.  that's why there is value in the adam dunn's.  those guys are my favorite players.  all they do is bat and try and get dingers

i'm starting to wonder if all the hype behind our staff is not fo realz.  that saddens me, though it still is too early to tell.  i thought castillo was gonna be a star and romano a rock.  and mahle was gonna be the best of the bunch.  amir garrett has the look of a closer we'll trade for prospects in a coupla years.  that guy's got potential

the draft is upon us 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on May 31, 2018, 10:59:11 PM
the draft is upon us
If that is going to be the drawing part of the current Reds rebuild, which it looks like it, continue to see the attendance diminish. I mean, this is year 4 of the rebuild, and now we may be looking at another 2-3 years, if not more, before we see a truly competitive Reds team on the field...

Meanwhile FC Cincinnati is starting its MLS debut next year, continuing to excite the city (while of course gathering huge crowds in its current USL affiliation).

The Reds and FCC play about the same time of the year (April through September). Anyone think this is not going to affect the Reds?
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on June 01, 2018, 11:12:02 AM
IMO, your rebuild has already failed.  The team core, along with what is in the minors, is nowhere near good enough to compete.  Trade everything that is not nailed down and draft well for two years and you can be in good shape.  Don't go into year 4 of the rebuild, go into year 1 of rebuild 2.0.

The problem is, it's the same leadership.  If the Reds knew what they were doing, they wouldn't be in this position in the first place.  They don't recognize that their rebuild has failed.  And even if they did, why would rebuild 2.0 be any more successful than rebuild 1.0?
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on June 01, 2018, 08:00:04 PM
If the Reds knew what they were doing, they wouldn't be in this position in the first place.  They don't recognize that their rebuild has failed.  And even if they did, why would rebuild 2.0 be any more successful than rebuild 1.0?
Much of that is true, although let's be honest, when you draft as many picks as they do in baseball, 40(!!) rounds, much of the draft come down to pure luck. Who the heck knows for sure beyond the most obvious earliest picks what the heck you are getting exactly?

I mean, if it was so obvious that Votto would become the player he eventually did, then why wasn't he picked in the first round (Reds picked him in the 2nd round).

Bottom line: I think drafting is baseball a mix of luck and knowledge.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on June 02, 2018, 12:20:16 AM
mike trout was a late first rounder i think.  it probably is busted, but still might be a bit premature.  but it's not like letting these people try it again is gonna solve anything.  there was certainly something there in 2012.  what a fuckin collapse.  and that was with joey votto missing half of his career year.  just bad luck.  and cueto gets dinged in the first fucking game.  joey had like 44 doubles in like a hundred games his obp was almost .500.  he was raking except for dingers.  his been a second half player since it seems.  that's up there with the bearcat collapse in march.  fuuuuccck   
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on June 02, 2018, 12:27:25 PM
GMís have the draft down pretty well now. 

Sure, every individual pick is still somewhat of a lottery ticket.  But that is why when you rebuild you collect high ceiling, lower minors players in bulk. 

 Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, even the Padres.  Every team that started rebuilding around the time the Teds did or after has a strong, contending, young team.  Only the Marlins have been worse but now they are cleaning house.

The Reds right now are worse than when they started their rebuild, and the farm system isnít any better either.  They waited way too long, and then they only had one salable asset in Chapman and they blew it on that trade.  They could have Gleyber Torres in their lineup right now.  But instead they have Peraza.

So I mean, it can be done for sure. Itís not luck.  In fact, Itís so easy the Cubs are already looking kinda over-the-hillish just two years after they won the WS with a team full of 25 and under players.

You just have to commit to intentionally punting at least two seasons.  The whole team will be brutal, and it just sucks to be a fan.  After that, itís not so bad.  The major league team might still be bad, but it will have some exciting young players on it.  And by year 4 or 5, you can be WS contenders. Againó it is not one team that managed to do this. Itís pretty much every team other than the Reds.

I think Reds fans are willing to do the full rebuild.  I do not think Reds ownership is, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on June 02, 2018, 11:09:51 PM

I think Reds fans are willing to do the full rebuild.  I do not think Reds ownership is, unfortunately.
Regretfully, I think you may be right <sigh>
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on June 05, 2018, 05:43:53 PM
By happenstance I stumbled upon this interview with COO Phil Castellini from exactly 2 years ago:

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/blog/2016/05/castellini-reds-should-be-truly-competitive-by.html

Oh my...
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on June 05, 2018, 06:55:40 PM
Yep, pretty nails the problem with Castellini.

The Cubs basically started their rebuild when they hired Epstein after the 2011 season. The Astros started pretty much at the same time when they fired Ed Crane a month later.  Both teams were more or less starting from scratch with bad major league teams without a whole lot of trade value and bad/mediocre farm systems.

Both teams were horrible in 2012 and 2013.  Both teams started to see some minor improvement in 2014 as the first products of their rebuild reached the majors.  Both teams made the playoffs in 2015.  And of course what is left out of the article (because it hadnít happened yet) is that the Cubs won the WS in 2016, and the Astros in 2017.  So... 5 years respectively to become champions.  Which is really pretty fast if you consider where they started.

So if the Reds started their rebuild after 2014, the same formula would have them be abysmal in 2015, 2016, and 2017, with 2018 the year they started to see improvement, and contenders in 2019.

But in 2018, the Reds are worse than ever.  And instead of their prospects just now reaching the majors, most of their rebuilding core have already been in the majors and are not cutting it.  They tried to shortcut the process and it did not work.

Also of note is that the Cubs and Astros changed owners in 2011.  So it really was a wholesale change starting from the top.  The Cubs were owned by the Tribune/Zell who never cared about the team at all.  But Drayton McClane was similar to Castellini.  Not a horrible guy, kinda wanted to do right by the city, but incompetent.  Like Castellini, McClane was never willing to make the major changes.  He overvalued veteransó especially those who had been on the team for awhileó and so never traded players at peak value.  Moreover, those vets as they aged stated minorly productive for a while, which inflated their record.  They were basically paying players way too much money to take away their chances at high draft picks.

There is not much the Reds can do this season.  But 2019 can be their equivalent of the Cubs/Astros 2011.  Sell everything you can.  What you canít sell, let them wind down their contracts.  Pick up every free agent you can get for cheap that needs a one year pillow deal.  If they play halfway decent, flip them.  Look towards 2023, not 2021.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on June 05, 2018, 10:47:04 PM

There is not much the Reds can do this season.  But 2019 can be their equivalent of the Cubs/Astros 2011.  Sell everything you can.  What you canít sell, let them wind down their contracts.  Pick up every free agent you can get for cheap that needs a one year pillow deal.  If they play halfway decent, flip them.  Look towards 2023, not 2021.
that pretty much sums it up for me. But will the Reds actually do that? I have my doubts.

Meanwhile FC Cincinnati is attracting major crowds. How does that relate to the Reds? In many ways! (as I've mentioned in earlier posts). I love the Reds, but they have major, MAJOR issues to address.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on June 06, 2018, 01:36:21 AM
Will fans pay $30 to see FC Cincinnati if they suck, though?

DC United used to have great attendance figures back when MLS started.  Itís a fantastic place for soccer, always has been.  Lots of Latinos, fairly international in general because of the city.  Lots of money and suburban soccer moms.  A lot of great players over the years have come from that area, both men and women.

But now the franchise is a joke and they are near the bottom of the league in attendance.



Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Cockney Rebel on June 09, 2018, 08:31:33 PM
Will fans pay $30 to see FC Cincinnati
FTFY

When the current vibe at Nippert has been sucked out of the matches, thereís zero local rivalry and thereís really nothing to play for season after season after season, no. The MLS business -v- soccer model is horrible
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on June 25, 2018, 11:11:15 AM
if they keep up this pace going into the all star break do you still break the team up? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on June 25, 2018, 11:27:06 AM
Absolutely
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on June 25, 2018, 01:03:22 PM
Gennett will be at peak value.  You basically have to trade him.  If you're going to trade him, might as put everyone else on the market bar maybe Suarez and Winker.

The better they play over the next month or so the more incentive there is to sell while prices are high.


Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on June 25, 2018, 05:31:47 PM
Gennett will be at peak value.  You basically have to trade him.  If you're going to trade him, might as put everyone else on the market bar maybe Suarez and Winker.

The better they play over the next month or so the more incentive there is to sell while prices are high.

scoot knows the writing's on the wall.  one thing going for us in dealing him is his utilitarianism.  i assume his arm is strong enough to handle the rigors of outfield or third.   i'd throw in iglesias as well and build up garrett's workload.  if the team's competitive around the break, moving a few big, but replaceable pieces will mitigate the need to rebuild all over again.  before the season started going .500 was in my mind a step in the right direction.  suarez would be painful to part with
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on June 25, 2018, 11:45:45 PM
But when will the "rebuilding" end? Moving Scooter (who is clearly playing above his "normal") makes sense, but it all depends what the Reds get in return, and I am not confident that they will get that, based on the last couple of years... <sigh>
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 03, 2018, 11:24:25 AM
But when will the "rebuilding" end? Moving Scooter (who is clearly playing above his "normal") makes sense, but it all depends what the Reds get in return, and I am not confident that they will get that, based on the last couple of years... <sigh>

i dunno euro.  schebby schebb schebb and pereza aren't coming out of the lineup.  duvallstar certainly was a bargain, castillo struggles for like one inning.  disco's a proven arm if he can stay healthy (which you can't say about finnegan).  the only deal that kinda sux is what we got for i guess bruce, whoever was dealt for herrera.  i mean, hell, even matt harvey is playing well.  the worst deal might very well be the first one, cueto's haul

it's fun rooting for the them to win if they win enough 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 03, 2018, 12:56:39 PM
Frazier deal was kind of stupid.  They got Schleber and Peraza, which is pretty good value, tbf.  Judged solely on value it worked out pretty well.  But I don't know why the Reds wanted two moderate-ceiling average MLB-ready players instead prospects with higher upsides.

The Chapman trade was the worst deal by far.  Everyone they got sucks. It's not even one of those "Well, in retrospect those guys ended up not panning out" situations. Like when the trade was made, everyone instantly was like "Wow, everyone the Reds got sucks."  Everyone knew that was a horrible trade.  The Yankees really didn't even want or need Chapman.  They were bad that year.  And everyone knew except apparently the Reds that the Yankees didn't really need Chapman.  The only reason they did it was because the deal was so ridiculously lopsided the Yankees knew they could flip him for a big profit.  Which they did, to the Cubs, for Gleyber Torres.  Then they just signed Chapman when his contract expired.

Anyway, the Reds should trade anyone who is 1) Two or less years away from free agency, 2) 27 or over, 3) a pitcher, or 4) sucks.

So basically, keep Winker.  Peraza barely passes the "doesn't suck" test so they can keep him although I'd listen to offers.  Suarez barely passes the under 27 test.  I don't know.  Obviously you hate trading a guy like that but the Reds could get an absolute haul for him.  It would be kind of tempting if you had really strong faith in your GM and scouting.  Between Suarez, Castillo, and Gennett the Reds could have an insane 2015 Cubs like farm system.  That would be pretty exciting.  But since I don't know if the Reds have that great a player acquisition office, I think you have to hang on to Suarez.

Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on July 03, 2018, 01:26:12 PM
It would be kind of tempting if you had really strong faith in your GM and scouting.

That's really the problem.  Although it seems like they hit on Senzel.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 04, 2018, 11:07:36 PM
Completely random: I was at the FC Cincinnati game last Saturday with clients in one of those skyboxes at Nippert Stadium. Attendance was 27,000+. Later I checked what the attendance was at the Reds, who also played that night: 24,000+
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on July 04, 2018, 11:54:43 PM
Completely random: I was at the FC Cincinnati game last Saturday with clients in one of those skyboxes at Nippert Stadium. Attendance was 27,000+. Later I checked what the attendance was at the Reds, who also played that night: 24,000+


Let's see if the FC Cincinnati fans still show up when they have to pay major league prices.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 05, 2018, 09:02:44 AM
i seemed to have blocked the chapman trade from memory.  i can't believe the cubs had that guy also.  i think the plan was, it was, was it supposed to be funny?   
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: noonan on July 05, 2018, 05:32:50 PM
When the current vibe at Nippert has been sucked out of the matches, thereís zero local rivalry and thereís really nothing to play for season after season after season, no.
^^^^
THIS

Nippert is a joy. A soulless bowl downtown will not be.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 05, 2018, 11:08:08 PM
When the current vibe at Nippert has been sucked out of the matches, thereís zero local rivalry and thereís really nothing to play for season after season after season, no.
^^^^
THIS

Nippert is a joy. A soulless bowl downtown will not be.
I think you guys are vastly underestimating the resolve, emotional investment and ferve of FCC fans... but that's just me. Only time will tell.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 06, 2018, 01:08:52 PM
isn't there an fcc thread? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 06, 2018, 02:07:50 PM
I think you guys are vastly underestimating the resolve, emotional investment and ferve of FCC fans... but that's just me. Only time will tell.

I'm on your side on this.  I think Cincinnati can theoretically sustain a 21k crowd at an MLS stadium.  That's really only about MLS average. 

The reason the Reds are not drawing is because they suck and fans have sort of given up that anything is going to happen soon to change that.  When they were good, they drew 30k, now that they stink they draw 20k.  There's not that many teams where attendance does not suffer when the team is bad.  You just try to limit the number of bad years so you have fewer down cycles and also your down cycles are not that awful.  It's that soul-sinking knowledge that this team has sucked for 2-3 years and the management has no clue what they are doing so they will suck for at least 2-3 more years, and even then you still won't actually ever win a championship because the management will screw it up somehow. 

In a good year, I think they sell out that stadium just about every game.  In a bad year, I think they still draw 13-15k.  If they stink 5 years in a row and people give up hope, then they're in trouble but you could say the same thing about any franchise.

The problem with FC Cincinnati is not city, but that MLS sucks.  I don't believe MLS can support the number of teams it has in the league, and that there are too many way shitty teams like DC United that suck money out.  The internationalization of soccer works against MLS because now it's easier than ever to follow PL or even Bundesliga or La Liga.  And just really, no on in USSF has the slightest clue what they are doing, and they only see MLS and NWSL as drivers for the USMNT, which is where they make the real $$.  MLS is just a scrimmage league for USMNT players that will become increasingly unnecessary as the best US players will be playing overseas.

The team won't go down, but the league will.. and it will take the team down with it.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: noonan on July 06, 2018, 03:41:21 PM
isn't there an fcc thread?
Of course there is. My bad.

I think the Reds had their shot and couldn't get over the hump in '10-'13 for a variety of reasons. Now they're stuck in rebuild no man's land playing a game that lasts 4 hours for people who have a 45 minute attention span. This recent run has been a lot of fun though.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 07, 2018, 02:08:02 PM
was mostly talking to euro
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 07, 2018, 11:49:11 PM
The internationalization of soccer works against MLS because now it's easier than ever to follow PL or even Bundesliga or La Liga.
Exactly the opposite in fact. So many people are watching those top leagues on TV that they want soccer in their cities. I see this time and again from the younger folks (say, my 31 yr. old son and his friends, and the same from my friends and their sons). I watched the England-Sweden game today at a friend's house, and his 27 yr. old son who was there knew more about the European leagues than I do, and he loves FCC

This discussion doesn't belong in the Reds threat, I know. I will create a separate FCC forum threat....
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 08, 2018, 09:23:00 AM
billy's been playing helluva ball.  his batting average has risen like yeast in the past month.  he's by far the most exciting player in baseball.  if this is first half joey, i'll take it.  but man, he's fallen slugging is concerning.  in the course of a game, how much time does joey votto spend at first base?  i don't get to watch the games so i can't marvel at his technique.  i can listen to people marvel however.  i suppose i could watch a youtube video.  possible entitled zen & the art of joey votto because they think that's a clever title.  but there is some truth behind it
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: noonan on July 09, 2018, 09:57:59 AM
billy's been playing helluva ball.  his batting average has risen like yeast in the past month.  he's by far the most exciting player in baseball.

When he gets on he scores more than half the time. That's kinda mind boggling.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 09, 2018, 12:24:11 PM
oh yeah.  he needs to fuck with pitchers more.  i mean, it's already enough without trickery.  but if i were billy hamilton's personal basepaths coach i'd only teach him how to get back to base as quick as possible.  i'd do all these hesitation quick long leadoffs where the pitcher is gonna have to throw over ten times an at bat.  i'd rather just trust my catcher with billy.  if you throw to first ten times an at bat, you might make that unnecessary throw which gives him possibly third.  and then you gotta worry if he's gonna try and steal home!  as a courtesy to the opposing team, just allow billy to start at second base.  catcher's got a fighting chance with him at third.  they do a great job at not allowing him on first base to begin with though
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 09, 2018, 01:48:38 PM
Billy Hamilton sucks.

I expect Votto will show some more power the second half of the season, but I also think this season he is finally starting to show the early signs of slow decline.  He's still pretty awesome, though.  And I think he remain awesome to good for the next coupe years.  I doubt he makes it to 2024 but then, everyone knew that when he signed.  That's still going to wind up a great contract for the Reds.




Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 11, 2018, 12:00:33 AM
By complete coincidence, I saw the tail end of the CIN-CLE game tonight. The Reds were shut out in the first 8 innings (down 4-0), and the CLE brought in their reliable closer, who promptly gave up run after run. CIN scored 7 (yes, 7!) runs in the top of the 9th, and win 7-4. Wow, just wow.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on July 11, 2018, 07:33:32 AM
Even worse was it was still 4-0 with 2 outs and runners on base, but they could not get that final out.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 11, 2018, 01:20:46 PM
Cleveland's bullpen this year is horrific. Cody Allen is the best closer we've ever had (statistically) but he's still having a down year. And there's no one else at all. NO ONE.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 11, 2018, 02:08:03 PM
Yeah, but the pen is the easiest thing to fix. 

Cody Allen is an okay closer.  He has one fatal weakness which is he is a flyball pitcher who is also prone to throwing some fat pitches leading to the occasional gopher ball.  That means he's going to blow some saves.  But other than that, he strikes a lot of guys out and doesn't give up walks.  He has only blown one save all year, so in general there's not too much to worry about there.  Just hope you don't have a one run lead in the bottom of the ninth in the seventh game of the WS.

It's the guys leading up to the ninth that are awful.  And the good news there is that they are so incredibly bad it's almost impossible not to improve.  You could pick up 4 guys off the waiver wire and do better.  But the Indians won't have to do that because there will be a bunch of teams selling at the deadline and middle relievers are cheap.  The Padres alone have three or four solid relievers they probably will be happy to deal.

Plus the  rotation is great, so the relievers don't have that big a workload.  And when you get to the playoffs you only need three starters so Carrasco can move to the pen.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 11, 2018, 03:06:36 PM
Wow, you think Carrasco goes to the pen? I haven't looked lately, but he was my #2. The Tribe have 4 awesome starters, so that's nice, and Shane Beiber seems promising for #5. Plus whatever happened to Tomlin. And if Salazar ever comes back.

But I digress.

What I want to point out is that the Tribe have very little to give up for those relievers. I know they are cheap, and I'm expecting someone in the next month, but I really want more than they can afford.


Separately, I heard a rumor (I know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy) that from the inside of the front office, they all know that they will win the AL Central but cannot beat the Yankees, Astros, or Red Sox, so then it's like, "what are we doing?" Also, I heard they are looking for a 3B, which I find...interesting.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 11, 2018, 03:39:47 PM
I think Carrasco has pitching style that is best suited for relief.  But I mean yeah, it could theoretically be any two of the rotation except Kluber who is 1) way too awesome to be wasted in relief and 2) is probably not well-suited for that role with his array of junkballs.

Bieber would be an interesting pitcher to use.  Let him start through August, and then move him to the pen.  See how it goes.  It'll keep his innings down, preserving him for use in the playoffs in some capacity and not blowing out his arm for next year. 

Cleveland's prospects aren't that bad.  They have enough to get some relievers.  They would be idiots to trade Meija or McKenzie but they don't need a superstar reliever anyway.  Just basic competency, and it shouldn't take more than a decent upper level B prospect.  Maybe even less if it's just a half season rental.

Why in the crap would Cleveland want a 3B when they have the second best player in baseball playing there?  And by second best I really mean "best" because Trout is so good he doesn't even count.  In a normal year, Ramirez is the AL MVP.  Didn't I just get through explaining this?  Mike Chernoff, are you listening?  Unless maybe they want to slide Ramirez over to second and think third base will be easier to fill in a trade than second, in which case maybe it makes sense.  I dunno, Kipnis isn't like super-awesome or anything and he's getting old but he's still a decent defender and I think his hitting will bounce back some.  I mean, he's not really what you'd hope for but he's not the position of greatest need either.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 12, 2018, 11:43:40 AM
Yeah, like you said, the only explanations I can see are:
1) They want to move on from Kipnis, and move JRam to 2B since he's actually better at 2B than 3B.
2) They were shopping for a backup 3B?

Seriously, that's all I have. I don't understand it either. I didn't think of your point about "it's easier to get a 3B in a trade." Is it? I don't know.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 12, 2018, 10:34:14 PM
cleveland's got some dude whom would get them machado supposedly.  that offense would be ridiculous.  swing for the fences cleveland!  i'm starting to like the indians again after a twenty year hiatus when i was solely an albert belle fan and the rest by proxy.  but if you'd like amir garrett, scooter, and iglesias for this guy....  is that a bad deal? 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 14, 2018, 05:30:28 PM
Like ZK said, I think their top two prospects are Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie.

Mejia is a catcher who's been up-and-down between AAA and the big league club, and is a rookie (he was also called up last September). The Indians' two main catchers, Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez, aren't really good enough. Offensively they struggle although they are significantly better at handling the pitching staff than Mejia would be. Gomes had a really good year in 2015 (or was it 2014?) and got a contract out of it. Perez has pretty much always been a backup. So it'd be tough to give up Mejia unless they were getting a catcher back, too.

Triston McKenzie is a 20 year old pitcher who is currently at AA. I don't know much about him other than he was a first round draft pick in 2015.

I don't know who you're thinking of trading for Machado, but I'd love to have him (who wouldn't?). I don't know if he'd slide to 3B, though. I heard early in the season that he wanted to play SS. I also heard that Machado is something like the worst defensive SS in baseball, so that wouldn't fly in Cleveland to move Lindor out of SS for space for Machado.

Thus, while the bat would help, I don't know how Cleveland gets Machado.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 14, 2018, 05:31:56 PM
Although, maybe you're right?

This article seems to disagree with me and agree with you, DD.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24078371/manny-machado-top-12-landing-spots-mlb-next-big-thing

Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 17, 2018, 11:08:19 AM
Looks like someone's getting him.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24119742/baltimore-orioles-deal-place-manny-machado-working-specifics-trade

They are speculating Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.

I wouldn't really want my team to give up a ton for a 3 month rental. The point that the Indians' window is closing is very true but I still don't think you bet the farm on one guy being the difference.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 17, 2018, 11:36:39 AM
I'm a believer of the "playoffs are a crapshoot" philosophy.  It's worth it to be a buyer if it gets you into the playoffs, but after that it's mostly luck.  I mean, you can and should make modest deals to plug gaps in the team but it's not worth it to try and be #1.

I don't see the Indians not making the playoffs.  I also don't see them being as good as a couple other teams even with Machado.  So they are right not to make a big move.  Especially at a position that isn't the highest priority.  Just trust in the luck factor.  Gets some MR and hope your rotation gets on a roll at the right time.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 17, 2018, 03:39:37 PM
They're not going to trade Gennett, are they?

Are they even going to try and trade Harvey?   

Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 17, 2018, 05:02:25 PM
Agreed. The Indians will should make the playoffs. After that...I want some relievers so when Bauer or Kluber get us a 2-1 lead into the 7th and 8th we can actually win the games.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 17, 2018, 08:57:26 PM
They're not going to trade Gennett, are they?

Are they even going to try and trade Harvey?

of course not
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 17, 2018, 10:52:50 PM
They may trade Harvey.

The bigger question is what to do with Scooter... Give him a big contract extension? Trade him? I have no idea. I am not an expert. I just want the Reds to get better and better. I'm tired of losing.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 17, 2018, 11:54:15 PM
Re-signing him would be truly stupid. 

Trading him is the right choice by far.  But letting him run out his contract is at least not too damaging.  More like an opportunity missed.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 18, 2018, 12:48:08 PM
castellini and the wrecking crew are trying to make amends with the fans for trading todd frazier.  my rigga see his future flash before his eyes and demotes himself to third base coach.  what are the chances scoot maintains this level of play?  i really don't want to find out.  but, if he's willing to play outfield once senzel comes up, it shouldn't be hard to match the output of a schebler hamilton or duvall.  it might be time to start building the team that could very well contend in the near future.  someone has got to offer the reds something too good to pass up.  they actually don't, but we may not get back what his potential might be worth.  we'll probably get low balled cuzza fear of him slipping and then it would make good sense to extend him.  well i think at least
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 18, 2018, 02:51:11 PM
It would not be difficult to match the output of the Reds current marginal starting OF's.  Which is exactly why you don't need to hand a guy a big contract to do it.

You have him at a cheap price until he is 30, which is all that any team should want him for.  The only reason to trade him is because you don't think you can win with him.  In that case, it doesn't matter if he is Mike Trout.  His value to you as a player on your team is less than his value would be on a contending team needing an IF, and the value of the prospects you get back in return is greater to you than their value on a win-now team.  So you trade. 

If you think you can win something in the next two years, or you are of the opinion that finishing .500 is much better than finishing .425 then your best value is to have peak Gennett as cheaply as possible and spend money to improve the team elsewhere.

Extending the dude makes no sense at all.  You're reducing your odds in the short term by increasing his salary, and you're reducing your odds in the long term by paying this guy money in his 30's when he will probably suck.  Even if he doesn't fade that much, you would still be reducing his value tremendously just by playing him in the outfield.  Most likely, he fades AND gets moved.  So in two years you will be paying much more to have a crappier Gennett play a crappier position than you are right now paying a peak Gennett to play a valuable position.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 18, 2018, 02:54:50 PM
ahh, i forgot we had control of his contract that long.  but yeah, i'll be a bit bummed but root for him if we retain him
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on July 19, 2018, 01:52:12 PM
It's the guys leading up to the ninth that are awful.  And the good news there is that they are so incredibly bad it's almost impossible not to improve.  You could pick up 4 guys off the waiver wire and do better.  But the Indians won't have to do that because there will be a bunch of teams selling at the deadline and middle relievers are cheap.  The Padres alone have three or four solid relievers they probably will be happy to deal.

You called that.

They would be idiots to trade Meija or McKenzie but they don't need a superstar reliever anyway.  Just basic competency, and it shouldn't take more than a decent upper level B prospect.  Maybe even less if it's just a half season rental.

And you called them idiots.


And now Mejia is gone. Fuck.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 19, 2018, 03:41:10 PM
The fact that they got Cimber makes it a lot more palatable.  People are calling it a trade for Brad Hand because the Indians need a closer, but I actually think Cimber isn't just a throw in.  In fact, I like him more than Hand.

So instead of making two trades to get to relievers giving up two prospects their 5-10 range, they got two guys with their top prospect, and lots of years of control.  Not that relievers are reliable for more than a couple years but then a couple years is all the Indians need before their window closes anyway.

I still don't like the deal, but it's certainly not a rip-off or unjustifiable or anything like that.  I'm guessing I'm probably in the minority and most people or at least the expert/saber/baseball geeks think the Indians got a solid deal.  I haven't read Fangraphs yet, so maybe I'm wrong. 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 20, 2018, 01:23:59 PM
would have iglesias and garrett/hughes been a lesser value?  what's the potential there?
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 20, 2018, 02:44:43 PM
Iglesias and Hughes would be a pretty similar package.  Iglesias is maybe not quite as good as Hand but has more upside.  Hand costs $13.5 m through 2020, while Iglesias costs $10m.  Hand has an option for 2021 where he would cost $10m but that's kinda blah.  The Indians probably would not pick that up and then it would cost them $1m to buy it out. 

Cimber is cost-controlled and cheap for a long time vs Hughes, but Hughes is more proven and dependable. Also, Hughes can go multiple innings.  I think Cimber is going to be a lights out closer but I may be biased because I love closers with funky delivers and crazy looking pitches.  Cimber has this submarine/sidearm looking slider that's pretty much impossible for righties to hit, but he doesn't have a pitch against lefties. 

But anyway, yeah.  An Iglesias/Hughes combo would probably net something like Mejia.  A #2 prospect from a really good team, or a #1 prospect with a few questions from a more average farm system.  Iglesias/Hughes might get a little more just because I think a lot of teams love Iglesias. The big thing with Mejia is there are some doubts whether he can play C. 

Mejia's bat is incredible for a catcher but just sort of average as an outfielder.  He appears to be almost exactly like Willson Contreras was for the Cubs a few years ago.  He can probably play OF at an acceptable level, but then his bat is nothing special there.  Mejia apparently has the physical tools to play C but for some reason just isn't that good.  Contreras had the excuse of being raw because he switched positions in the minors.  Also Contreras had a better eye at the plate.  But anyway, the upside of Mejia is Contreras as a C.  All-star with great bat and average to slightly better than average defense.  The downside of Mejia is a slightly lesser Contreras in the OF, which would be a decent fourth OF but a middling starter.




Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 24, 2018, 04:18:23 PM
It will be hilarious if the Mets trade Mesoraco but the Reds don't trade Harvey.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 24, 2018, 11:41:40 PM
people should resign if they hold onto harvey
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 26, 2018, 12:40:51 AM
people should resign if they hold onto harvey
People have resigned already.

I am actually going to the Reds game on Saturday, the only non-work related Reds game I'm going to this year. Combination of my upcoming b'day and the Walk the Moon show and both my kids (31 and 28) going. Even though both my kids are in Cincinnati, the times that all 3 of us are together at the same time are rare, 3 or 4 times in a year, so this is kinda special in fact. I'm looking forward to it for that reason.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: trixi on July 26, 2018, 09:03:37 PM
I will be there Sat as well...one of the few non-Cubs games I'll be attending.  Looking forward to getting my #sjv voodoo doll :-D :-D
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Drjohnrock on July 30, 2018, 11:21:56 PM
It's been announced this evening that the Reds have traded Adam Duvall to the Braves for three, uh, players I guess you'd call them.  I don't like this trade from a baseball standpoint.  But I'll let others discuss/argue about that on this thread.  I hate to see him go even more from a personal standpoint.  Duvall has type 1 diabetes and has generously given his time to organizations that are looking for a cure and that help those with t1d live better lives.  My daughter is t1d.  Duvall is a good role model and inspiration for her.  She spoke with him and got her picture taken with him at a diabetes conference awhile back.  She is understandably upset about the trade. I hope it doesn't turn her into a Braves fan.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on July 30, 2018, 11:39:31 PM
Nice take on the trade, Drjohn, I never would've thought of it that way.

As am aside, my kids and I attended Saturday's Reds game, which was well attended (35K+). We didn't care much about the game (in fact, it was the 4th or 5th inning by the time we got there after enjoying a drink on the fabulous rooftop bar on the AC Hotel across the street), but we were there for the post-game Walk the Moon concert. And these guys delivered, bringing a stadium-sized show that is all about having a good time. So much fun.

BTW, this is the only non-work related Reds game I have attended this year (and plan on no others).
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on July 31, 2018, 07:35:08 AM
As a pure baseball move, I'm fine with it.  The guy has 15 HRs and isn't even OPSing .700.  We have plenty of decent looking hitters who probably should be getting playing time and aren't almost 30.

I do hope he does well, but this seems like a very Braves hitter to me, someone who is right around the Mendoza line but can hit homers.  With the emergence of Suarez and Gennett, Duvall is very much surplus.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on July 31, 2018, 10:10:38 AM
what's not to like about the trade?  you weren't expecting a better haul were you?  duval, is, replaceable and you never know how these trades are gonna work out anyway.  i mean, look at duval.  just got a brief introduction to the newest 'leggers and is neither encouraging or discouraging because what is unknown cannot be replaced by the known, that is, the outfield becomes less hazy and the dynamic of the team is starting to unfold.   and no they aren't trading scooter and possibly harvey in august apparently.  we're building to win, now.  next year playoffs, tomorrow... playoffs.  rebuild
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on July 31, 2018, 03:13:14 PM
It was a decent trade for both sides.  For a contending team, a big power bat off the bench for those situations where you are down 2 runs with a guy on base and need the HR is useful.  Plus unlike a lot of pure power hitters who tend to be oafish, Duvall can actually play defense which makes him more than just a PH.  If you have a player that needs a day off, Duvall isn't going to hurt you.  He may even help you if the Braves are facing a lefty.

For the Reds though, Duvall was somewhat useless. But what any team can use, but a lousy team especially is arms.  Even assuming the most likely scenario that the Reds are crappy next year AND Wisler and Sims are both crappy, who cares?  They're sacrificial arms who can throw some innings and buy time for DeSclafini to get healthy or Cody Reed or Brad Finnegan to stay in AAA and figure things out.  Or Stephenson if he needs more time.

I'm of the opinion that for every 6 failed SP with a good prospect pedigree, probably one of them can convert to reliever and be useful, one of them can figure things out enough to be a useful backend starter, and maybe one of them actually reaches their potential to become not an ace but a decent #2 maybe.

And the nice thing about having a lousy team is it affords you the luxury of just churning through players like this until you find some wheat in the chaff.

I remember the Cubs doing this and it frustrated me to no end because Epstein would point at these starters like they were good and he wasn't just punting the season.  And I would be like, No you idiot those guys suck.  Get prospects.  But now I see the logic.  The Cubs were signing every bad FA to pillow contracts and getting them as pieces back for mediocre guys like Duvall or picking them up off the waiver wire.

There were so many of them.  Most of them were indeed awful.  But it didn't matter because the Cubs were terrible anyway.  But some of them ended up useful.  Like Strailly was one of them, he just didn't do well for the Cubs.  But later he did okay for the Reds.  Jason Hammel was one of them and he pitched his ass off for the Cubs and helped turn them around and then got traded to the A's as part of the Russell deal so that was actually quite instrumental in the rebuild.  And of course Scott Feldman pitched a half, not-terrible season for the Cubs and the O's were looking for a backend starter for the stretch run and tossed them two more failed guys they were an inch away from DFA'ing the Cubs could churn.  One of them was Jake Arrieta.  The other was Pedro Strop.

So if you look at the trade like "oooh, these are the two missing pieces we need to transform the rotation and contend next year" then you will likely be sorely mistaken.  But if you look at instead of "We need audition at least ten arms to build a good staff and now here are two, for Duvall who was expendable" then it works out.

The only kind of sour note is that we're talking about the Braves who are the best in the business with young pitchers.  If they can't do anything with these guys, who can?  OTOH, I guess you can say that if the Braves who know their stuff at some point saw the potential, then maybe it's still there.  And I mean, what else were you going to get for Adam Duvall?  Overall a decent, though likely unimpactful trade for the Reds.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 01, 2018, 01:21:48 PM
cbssportsline said the braves potentially gave up too much.   that'd be hilarious.  the reds seem to excel at the bargain heap more than trading.  i hope that's being addressed.  i want three more suarezes.  four   
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on August 01, 2018, 01:56:42 PM
If the Reds were really good at finding great players out of the bargain heap then they wouldn't suck.

That's not a knock on the Reds.  I don't think any team nowadays is particularly good at it. Everyone has all the numbers and scouts and analysts.  It's not that player evaluation is perfect, just that the science of player evaluation is standardized.  There's some great players out there but no team is better at finding them than others.  What you can do is just buy enough lottery tickets and you're going to eventually hit on something.

Teams don't succeed by finding hidden gems anymore.  It's brutally mechanically and business-like.  Look at the Astros.  That org. is heartless as mofos.  "Hey this guy is devalued because he beats up women but it sure doesn't impact him on the field. Bargain!"  "Hey check out this young pitcher with a medical issue.  We'll draft him, hold that over his head as leverage and see if he will sign dirt cheap.  If not, we get the pick back next year.  If he loses college eligibility oh well that sucks for him but it doesn't hurt us."  "There's all these dudes in third world countries that can barely eat.  They'll play for anything.  Sign up 20 of them!"







Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 02, 2018, 01:26:08 PM
i didn't mean to say they were good at it, just compared to their trades.  they always seem to find some decent backup catcher or utility man who can pinch hit 5-7 dingers.  it seems we've also done fairly well with your castoff pitching
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 04, 2018, 02:27:44 PM
oh man, hunter greene may need tj stat.  ole kremmies on the scene
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on August 04, 2018, 04:29:37 PM
I think something is wrong with Mahle, too.

It would be better if Greene had TJ surgery.  Heís 19.  Heíll bounce back fast.  And if he doesnít, still plenty of time for him to try his luck as a hitter.

I hate the whole PRP injunction, ready, rehab cycle.  It almost never works and you just end up with pitchers losing another season before TJS so then they lose two straight seasons and they never get their career on track.

People are saying DeScalafani and Lorenzen didnít have surgery and came back.  Did they?  Neither pitcher has been all that good this year.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Butter on August 06, 2018, 07:26:36 AM
Sounds like they are going non-surgical with Greene.  Probably a mistake.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 06, 2018, 02:47:31 PM
disco's been pitching better lately.  he hasn't even been pitching half the year.  same with lorenzen.  lorenzen hasn't looked terrible.  roughed up a bit lately but is bouncing back his becoming reliability.  i think he's still fairly young and disco isn't thirty yet.  if that means anything.  i'm not overly optimistic that greene is the ace we hope him to be.  the reds have never had a clayton kershaw or roger clemens or randy johnson or bob gibson or walter spahan.  i doubt there is a pitcher from the reds in the hall of fame.  maybe a lot of teams can say that.  not saying that greene is even capable of being that good.   he'd have a better chance elsewhere.  we can form a decent staff headlined with a true one, but he ain't gonna win ya any cy youngs.  has a reds pitcher ever won a cy young? 

that answer is no

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/9/28/3424630/the-long-list-of-cincinnati-reds-cy-young-award-winners
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on August 06, 2018, 04:39:26 PM
You've won a few World Series' though. I'd trade you the two Kluber Cy Youngs plus the Sabathia and Cliff Lee Cy Youngs (in other words, all 4) for a World Series win.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 06, 2018, 05:00:31 PM
deal.  i would also like vintage albert belle for cash considerations
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on August 07, 2018, 01:51:33 PM
Fine, but we get to keep Joey Belle.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on August 07, 2018, 03:47:20 PM
Whatever, idiots.  You guys can fight over Belle.  He's not even in my top fiveof 90-early 2000's era Indians I would want on my team.

1- Lofton, 2-Thome, 3-Alomar, 4-Manny, 5- Nagy.  Then maybe Belle and Vizquel.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 07, 2018, 11:44:15 PM
that's crazy.  the indians had belle in his prime.  when he was in his prime he was a perennial mvp candidate and should have won it in '95 i think but freaking mo vaughn won.  what about c-bags, carlos baegra?  lofton definitely was the ideal lead off man and played a wicked centerfield so i could see the justification for him being numero uno.  once albert left thome and ramirez went off.  i can't believe they lost to the freakin marlins.  jose mesa also delivers.  although i played third base, i modeled my defense around omar vizquel even if i was chubby, had a weak arm and an inaccurate throw   
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on August 08, 2018, 03:01:01 PM
Yeah, you can kind of understand how they could lose to prime Atlanta Braves where their pitching was nearly unhittable.  But losing to the Marlins in '97 hurt.

Those Indians teams were really good.  If they'd had the Yankees budget-- not even to sign free agents, but just so they could hold on to the players they had-- they probably could have won 2-3 WS.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on August 08, 2018, 04:03:53 PM
You guys have no idea how influential those teams were to me, people of my generation, the city itself, and the entire franchise. They are still basically immortalized.

The '95 team was my favorite, although '97 Sandy Alomar was the pinnacle, and I did like having Robbie Alomar in the later years. Remember that in '95 Thome was third baseman, not first baseman! Paul Sorrento played 1B that year.

Random fact that's not important at all: The '95 Indians were so stacked that they had future General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr on their team. A future GM!
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on August 08, 2018, 04:34:13 PM
Yeah, that's why I would take Thome over Belle.  They had the same power.  Belle hit for a higher average.  But that's offset by the fact that Belle played corner OF shittily while Thome played a halfway decent 3B. 

I can never spell or say Paul Sorrento with one O, except for just now to make a point.  It's always Paul SorrentooooooooOOOOOOOoooo.

Back to Reds news.  Robert Stephenson still sucks.  I still think he's going to be good one of these days, but I think he's going to go down the Homer Bailey route.  It'll take him forever to finally figure it out, and by that time he'll have thrown like 800 innings already so, he'll have one good season before his arm falls apart. 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on August 08, 2018, 06:07:57 PM
Back to Reds news.  Robert Stephenson still sucks.  I still think he's going to be good one of these days, but I think he's going to go down the Homer Bailey route.  It'll take him forever to finally figure it out, and by that time he'll have thrown like 800 innings already so, he'll have one good season before his arm falls apart.
This is the eternal optimist in you. I can't see this ending well for Stephenson, I really can't. At least Homer did have some flashes of brilliance in the early years, not to mention 2 no-hitters.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Dan on August 09, 2018, 01:14:49 PM
I can never spell or say Paul Sorrento with one O, except for just now to make a point.  It's always Paul SorrentooooooooOOOOOOOoooo.

Remember when Chris Berman would make poor puns as middle names? Example: Joe "Murders in the Rue" Morgan.

One time he called him Paul "Cold Sore"rrento and he's been that to me ever since.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: foolsgold on August 09, 2018, 01:26:49 PM
It's been a while since I thought about how obnoxious Chris Berman is.  Thanks for the reminder, Dan.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on August 09, 2018, 02:22:58 PM
those early days were wild.  bob ley said berman was railing the help on some desk behind him while he was trying to work
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on September 25, 2018, 11:24:56 PM
After tonight, the Reds have 4 home games left... Tonight from my office on 3rd street overlooking the Reds stadium, there was absolutely nothing happening (I was still in the office when the game started at 6:40). I mean, there couldn't have been more than a couple of thousand people?

Looking at the bigger picture, are the Reds giving us hope for anything better? In the last 4 years, they have posted 64, 68, 68 and 66 wins (with 4 more games to go). Meanwhile Milwaukee (another "small market" team) has picked itself up to be in contention for the division title. Does anyone see anything that makes us think that next year the Reds will be any better? I don't see it. We've had numerous discussions about the pipeline in the minors but that has been going on for YEARS. It's all just talk and speculation.

It's just dispiriting to me. I really WANT to support the Reds, but they seemingly have no clear plan. No wonder then that attendance has plummeted (less than 20,000 and that's counting tickets sold, not real attendance).

Just sad. And the fact that FC Cincinnati (a direct competitor now for Reds fans) is doing so well only aggravates the Reds' problems.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on October 02, 2018, 10:37:26 PM
i was pretty shocked to find that they finished with a worse record than last season.  seemed like a better ball club.  we just need either better pitching or more reliable pitching, and joey dingers or at least joey .300.  (which is also the name of his smooth jazz band in toronto).  we oughta trade senzel maybe for a young ace.  he's a luxury.  trade or release billy.  let phil erv take over.  winker and schebbs at the corners.  and luis severino is your opening day starter.  if the holdovers from the staff just seem to solid, let bob steve and homer man the pen.  here's my prediction with how the starting five

castillo
disco
mahle
lorenzen
finnegan

i really like sal romano and i'm sure he'll get plenty of opportunities as finny and disco will have injury bouts

this is the best offensive club the cities' seen in a long time, including all those playoff years.  the team is clearly committed to scooter.  most likely because they don't have a choice.  he's too good to just give away.  he just keeps on proving that you have to play him.  they'll never get better at trading people at the right time.  unfortunately
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on October 02, 2018, 10:42:55 PM
Just to reinforce the point, the Reds' win totals in the last 4 years:

2015: 64
2016: 68
2017: 68
2018: 67

Does that sound like a club going the right direction? Meanwhile the Brewers won the division title this year.

Jim Riggleman isn't the problem, the front office is. Get us better talent.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on October 03, 2018, 02:34:12 PM
girardi, david bell, and brad ausmus being interviewed.  girardi would be interesting.  i wonder if he stills likes baseball?
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on October 03, 2018, 11:11:14 PM
I am less interested in seeing who the next manager will be, I mean, no manager can do better than the players he has.

What I want to see is what the front office is doing after years in the wilderness. And there I see no plan, so I see no hope that the Reds will be better next year.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on November 07, 2018, 02:08:15 PM
so los rojos get brewer's pitching coach and the dodgers hitting coach.  with those moves finalized, next will be adding dallas keuchel and nathan eovaldi.  more of my predictions include homer bailey being long relief whenever one of those perpetual rooks looks shaky.  he'll be a season long spot starter or just until disco or finny goes out for the year.  and people said 90 wins was out of reach
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: euro60 on November 07, 2018, 03:59:29 PM
so los rojos get brewer's pitching coach and the dodgers hitting coach.
The Reds were already hitting well. That's not the issue.

Now pitching... another matter altogether. And what is this latest greatest pitching coach going to do with a bunch of mediocre (at best) pitchers? Turn them into Kershaws? Don't think so.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on December 22, 2018, 10:02:00 AM
how bout dat?  not sure who plays center.  i figured winker would but puig's got a cannon.  simply awesome.  rotation almost set

castillo
wood
disco
roark
mahle

but that won't matter when you're scoring ten runs a game.  still hate the cards got goldy.  that's so cards
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on December 22, 2018, 01:58:04 PM
Yeah, interesting deal.

I still think the Reds should be rebuilding, and this deal moves them in the opposite direction.  So it is easy at firstly blush to just slam this trade.

But OTOH, they aren't taking on any long term obligations.  I think Puig is a bit of a headcase who might blow up in the Reds' face. But I meN, you have to take a bit of a risk.  If Puig weren't who he is, there's no way he'd be abailable.

The Puig risk us offset by Kemp, who I think is a pretty cool guy.  Unfgirtinstely, I think the tank is empty.  But I think he us still an asset.  He's no MVP, but could still be a monster 4th OF/bench bat.

Wood is a great pitcher if he can stay healthy which I seriously doubt he will.  But I'm not going to fing the Reds fir that.  If he could pitch 200 IP reliably with a 3-ish ERS, he wouldn't be on the market

On paper,this team looks competitive if you assume health and repeat performances of last year.  Not favorites, but possibly righting therw.  The problem is there is a ton more downside from that baseline than there is upside.

It is a good trade if you want to take a stab at winning.  If it does not work, you just set back your rebuild one year.  Maybe not even, if they can flip some of those players if they are out of it.  And maybe some if the young players benefit from veteran presence.  They did not blow up the farm system, just dinged it a bit.

I would be grudgingly okay with this trade if I were a Reds fan.  I'd prefer them rebuild, but if they do not want to do that this is the next best thing.

That offense will not be quite as good as you think it is, though. Sure, they will put some points on the board in that park, but so will their opponents. 
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on December 23, 2018, 08:43:12 AM
they're still not done they say.  people are worried about losing winker.  maybe we get kluber or jt realmuto
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: Zafer Kaya on December 23, 2018, 10:14:14 AM
Trading Winker would be colossally stupid.  Honestly, they should trade Gennett and plug Senzel in there if he can play the position.  Ithink at this point you just bring in another #3 or #4 starter type.  Castillo could take that step up and become an ace.  But even if he doesnít Castillo and Wood is a decent 1 and 2.  Bring in one more semi-decent arm and the rotation will be pretty solid, if not great and lacking a shutdown guy.

Unfortunately, they play in the best division in baseball so the best they can do is give themselves an outside chance.  But just being competitive will probably be a big boost for the fanbase and probably the players.  The FO does need to demonstrate they care.
Title: Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
Post by: daytime drinking on December 24, 2018, 08:40:02 AM
if none of the pitchers they've developed pan out into a above average starter then i'm more than ready to move on from the front office.  they have to be the shallowest minds in all of baseball.  the only logical conclusion anyone can draw is that only cared about fan's dollars.  they didn't dare try to compete.  no one can be so stupid to hold onto these players that long.  who fuckin cares if they trade a fan favorite.   tis an unfortunate reality for this nostalgic buff that it was a mistake for joey votto to be allowed to finish his career a red.  the cardinals have one of the most tradition rich franchises.  icons.  and they, sigh, smartly let pooholes walk.  not that i minded that, it's just i miss the good ole days of baseball