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[Ella Minnow Pea]

So devastating.

[Kenneth Toilethole]

A guy here at work has season tickets to the Bluejackets and was lamentng their putrid start. The thing he kept going back to was how bad their team has been hurt by the terrible first round picks they have made in the draft. I agreed with him at first but I wanted to check out how bad they really had done. What I discovered was that their real problem was not sucking enough to get one of the magical top 3 picks. After the first 3, the NHL draft real becomes a crap shoot.  What I did was look at who was taken right before the CBJ's pick and who was taken immediately after their pick. I didn't want to just cherry pick anyone after their pick because that's not a good gauge to determine a "screw-up" in my opinion since multiple teams then screwed-up on that player. What you will see is that besides the top three every year, it really is a crapshoot when it comes to drafting an 18 year old. What's that? Oh yes, I will agree 2003 is where CBJ really screwed the pooch. That draft was loaded, they had the #3 pick and still screwed that up. And my data will reflect that as being the one big pick they screwed up.

2000
MIN - Gaborik
CBJ - Klesla
EDM - Torres

2001
MTL - Mike Komisarek
CBJ - Leclaire
CHI - Tuomo Ruutu

2002
CBJ - Rick Nash #1 pick
ATL- Kari Lehtonen
FLA - Jay Bouwmeester

2003
FLA - Nathan Horton
CBJ - Nik Zherdev
BUF - Thomas Vanek

2004
FLA - Rostislav Olesz
CBJ - Alex Picard
EDM - Ladislav Smid

2005
MTL - Carey Price
CBJ - Gilbert Brule
CHI - Jack Skille

2006
BOS - Phil Kessel
CBJ - Derick Brassard
NYI - Kyle Okposo

2007
EDM - Sam Gagner
CBJ - Jakub Voracek
BOS - Matt Hamill

2008
TOR - Luke Schenn
CBJ - Nik Filatov
NSH - Colin Wilson

So what does it all add up to?

Pick right before CBJ: 735 goals; 99 wins
CBJ pick: 560 goals; 61 wins
Pick right after CBJ: 583 goals

So if the Jackets could have just lost 2 or 3 more games a year and moved up one pick, who knows where they may be now. But more importantly, it shows that the player they "passed over" was more often than not just as crappy as the kid they picked. The only reason the goal total is higher is because there was one extra skater since no goalie was chosen right afterward except for '02 but I wanted to use Bouwmeester's stats since he was who the Jackets were going to take if they hadn't made the trade for the #1 pick with FLA.

Now, granted this doesn't take the scouting department off the hook for the fact they have done so terrible at the rounds afterwards, but I just wanted to find out if the Jackets are in the shape they are in now because of first round failures and I now don't believe that statement is totally fair.

Just ask Minnesota.

[rva]

I feel like Rick Nash kinda summarizes that whole thing.  He was a #1 pick, and no one thought it was that crazy that he went #1.  OTOH, he wasn't seen to be like a once-in-a-generation player like Crosby.  The BJ's just didn't happen to be lucky enough to have the #1 pick in the right year.

And Nash is a pretty good player.  Just not a great player.  And I think he was a little unlucky with getting hurt at a bad time in his career to bad parts of his body.  Not horribly unlucky in that his injuries weren't career ending, but I personally feel like he never quite truly met his potential like if he'd been healthy.

So it's just sorta blah.  Nothing great, but nothing horrible either.  There was some bad luck involved, but not inordinate amounts.  Bad luck is part of the game.  Nash ended up being a good pick, but not a genius pick.

Which is pretty much the Blue Jackets in a nutshell.  They are the most blah NHL team ever.  You can mark them down for 80 points a year.  And I do think part of that is their fault.  They *should* be willing to suck so bad they get a top 3 pick.  In salary cap leagues, there's a skill to the whole build, go-for-it-now, blow-up-the-team, rebuild process. 

The Blue Jackets should have at some point just traded everyone who was any good for draft picks, young players and cap room, stunk it up for 1 or 2 seasons, and then have a foundation to build on.  Instead they're always an 80 point team shuffling pieces around in futile attempts to become a 90 point team... which still isn't even really that great.  It's like they always have a decent player or two, a guy who can be traded, and a little bit of cap space.  Instead of having no players and a ton of cap space or no cap space and a ton of good players.

I guess the argument that can be made is the Blue Jackets actually did do the whole building cycle thing, and really just got screwed.  Was it 2006 when they were sort of getting the buzz as playoff darkhorse and posssible up-and-comer and then Nash got hurt and missed the first half of the season?  Anyway, that kind of screwed them.  So maybe that part was bad luck.  I don't know.  It still seems to me like they should have been able to put together more than one play-off appearance since they've been around.  And really that play-off appearance was kind of sham because they got swept in the first round just like everyone knew they would.  Making the playoffs in the NHL is not a high bar.

As a general rule, I think teams are made more by their little choices than their high draft picks.  Take the Nationals.  Everyone always talks about how they have Harper and Strasburg.  But that's not genius.  Everyone in the whole world would have drafted Harper and Strasburg, their teams just didn't suck enough to get the #1 pick.  The Nationals have done some other things with other picks and stuff, so I'm not knocking them.  But Harper and Strasburg took no skill, and Harper and Strasburg and a bunch of mediocre guys is not a WS contender.

Even the biggest busts of all time-- like everyone bags on that 1992 Senators draft and Alexandre Daigle.  But at the time, everyone would have drafted him #1.  And in fact teams that didn't have the #1 pick were desperately trying to trade up to draft him.  It was a no-brainer.  You would have been fired had you NOT drafted him first. 

Isn't the rumor that the scouts supplied the list in alphabetical order instead of by preference, so after Daigle they just drafted alphabetically?  If so, I'm pretty sure that's what really killed the early Senators and showed how totally incompetent they were.  Not the Daigle miss.  It's all the talent they missed from the second round on that had good but maybe not great NHL careers and who everyone has forgotten about.

[Wocket]

You've also got to take into account being able to develop the draft picks. Scouting and developing have both been failures for the Jackets.
What sums it up for me is Filatov. They draft him first round and two years later they trade him for a third round pick. That's on the whole organization. I shrugged when they traded a first and third for Carter because Howson and Co. probably would've ruined the picks anyway.
Every year they look like a team without an identity.

[rva]

I think NHL GM is BY FAR the hardest GM job in sports.  It's totally impossible.  You have all deep scouting and minor league stuff that makes baseball drafts hard.  Then you have all the salary cap stuff, plus figuring out how labor agreements might fit into everything that the NBA has.  And then you have the high likelihood of catastrophic type injuries that can just wreck an entire season or a career like the NFL.

Plus it's just a freaking impossible task to construct various lines and how they should play and the chemistry between them.

I feel like I already am probably a better GM than 3/4 of NBA GM's.  I could probably be the GM of an MLB team, but I'd be mediocre.  No way in a million years could I be an NHL GM.

[Kenneth Toilethole]

You've also got to take into account being able to develop the draft picks. Scouting and developing have both been failures for the Jackets.
What sums it up for me is Filatov. They draft him first round and two years later they trade him for a third round pick. That's on the whole organization. I shrugged when they traded a first and third for Carter because Howson and Co. probably would've ruined the picks anyway.
Every year they look like a team without an identity.

Filatov is the most important Blue Jacket in their history. Here is why: Filatov was rushed to the NHL but Ken Hitchcock wasn't having any of that. He wasn't ready and definitely didn't play Hitchcock hockey. Well, this was Howson's first real pick and everybody was saying what a great pick it was since he was projected second or third and ended up falling and the CBJ's took advantage. So, Howson wanted to prove how great he was. Also keep in mind, Hitchcock was not a "Howson" guy, but since he was having success, there was nothing he could do. But aha! here is Scott's chance to take advantage of a chink in Kenny's armor. Hitchcock hates rookies that's why Filatov isn't playing and once the Wings swept them in the playoffs everyone kept talking about how the Wings were so much faster and a Hitchcock team will never go far, blah, blah, blah. Well, then you have the Nash injury which lead to the poor first half of the year and now Howson can replace him with the "younger thinking" Claude Noel and now Howson can rightfully claim ownership of the franchise. And so Filatov starts to get playing time and everyone sees why he was passed on originally in the draft. You can't train work ethic in the minors. He never had it and he never will.

So, Filatov changed the Blue Jackets from a team that the opposition feared playing because of the brutal forecheck of the Ken Hitchcock system, and that translated into minor success, into a team that still has zero identity and has completely ruined the career of Ken Hitchcock. It is not by accident he still isn't a coach in the NHL.

[Kenneth Toilethole]

Personally, I think its a tie between Columbus and Minnesota for most blah teams. I would try to decide who is more blah, but a tie seems even more fitting.

[Kenneth Toilethole]

Oh and one last thing. WOCKET!!!

Hope to see you around more bud.

[Ella Minnow Pea]

Oh and one last thing. WOCKET!!!

Hope to see you around more bud.

Seconded! I've missed seeing you online.

[Wocket]

it's been a while hasn't it? happy to be back.

I agree with you robbie. Hitch's job was in jeopardy the second Howson started shedding the vets that got them to the playoffs (Malhotra, Torres, Peca, Chimera, etc). Filatov, Voracek, Brule, Brassard, Zherdev, even Nash were all forced into roles quicker than they should have been. I think there's been a cycle with the Jackets history. Draft poorly, over pay FAs who get thrown into inappropriate roles as result of their salaries, lose, force prospects into inappropriate roles due to lack of production from said FAs, lose, fire the coach, lose/maybe moderate success, and the cycle repeats. It took Maclean how long to get fired? I hope Howson doesn't get the same leash length because Nash is going to demand a trade sooner rather than later and if that happens, kiss the fans (then the franchise) goodbye.

@ rva

while I agree the job of NHL GM has to be incredibly tough, there are some that manage to keep their clubs competitive nearly every year, Ken Holland in DET, Dean Lombardi in LA, Doug Wilson in SJ, Dave Poile in NSH (even with budget restrictions), Peter Chiarelli in BOS, George Mcphee in WAS, Ray Shero in PIT, and to a lesser extent maybe Rutherford in CAR. It may be very hard to be good and consistent but it's not impossible. You may think that success with those guys are tied to big spending but consider the fact that CBJs had the 5th highest payroll to start the season. Dallas who has the lowest payroll is 7-3 currently. As they say, you can't make the playoffs in October but you can miss them.
Either way, I think the only GM who has done worse for a team in recent memory than the Maclean/Howson sadness tandem, is Don Waddell. You know you're the worst when you manage your team into the toilet and out of the city.

Oh and the jackets lost again tonight.

[rva]

So... anyone have any predictions for this season?

I do not think it will be the Blackhawks or the Capitals winning it, which kind of sucks since they are my two favorite teams.

I think it's going to be the Flyers.  I don't know why.  I just have that feeling.

[Kenneth Toilethole]

So... anyone have any predictions for this season?

I do not think it will be the Blackhawks or the Capitals winning it, which kind of sucks since they are my two favorite teams.

I think it's going to be the Flyers.  I don't know why.  I just have that feeling.

If Crosby comes back, the Penguins will be unstoppable. Hell, they may win it all without him.

[rva]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Crosby's done. 

[Dan]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Crosby's done. 

I know very little about hockey, but from what I've heard it sounds like this is the case. I hope for everyone's sake that he will be able to safely return.

[rva]

I have watched the two Crosby hits a million times, and I still can't see how either of those were dirty.

I think Steckel never saw him.  Or if he did, it was too late to either avoid the collision or to make an adjustment to nail him exactoperfectly on the head.

Hedman was probably late on his "collision" and I think he got properly called for boarding.  But he's obviously just trying to pinch Crosby against the boards for a second to take him out of the play, and because sometimes bouncing off a guy is easier than trying to stop and turn.  There's no elbows out or arms going forward to shove Crosby.  He's not leaving his feet or lowering a shoulder.  If anything, Hedman is already pulling up when he hits him.

If Crosby isn't already concussed I doubt he gets hurt, and no one would think anything of that play.  It would just be your standard 2 minute minor for boarding.