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[notoriouspbake]

after much discussion, my wife and have have your winner: tarzan.

with 5 men on the jury, he has those votes locked. once the men broke apart after the merge, he's the only one who saw the writing on the wall and has played the goat, on purpose, to get to the final three. it explains his voting out the rest of the men, to make sure they were on the jury. once the women have to turn on themselves, they won't vote for each other when on the jury. that gives tarzan the 5 men votes and at least one of the women. with 9 on the jury, that's more than enough to win. sorry for the spoiler, but the "game's afoot".

or perhaps with the lack of any strategic play this season, we are manufacturing strategy to entertain ourselves.

at this point, the only folks i'd consider worthy of winning are kim and tarzan, if he's smart enough to have come up with the goat strategy. no one else has made any moves. and now they'll have to make moves borne on necessity, not of pure strategic brilliance.

[euro60]

after much discussion, my wife and have have your winner: tarzan.

unless of course he gets voted off in the next episode, after failing to win immunity 

[cyclone]

after much discussion, my wife and have have your winner: tarzan.

with 5 men on the jury, he has those votes locked. once the men broke apart after the merge, he's the only one who saw the writing on the wall and has played the goat, on purpose, to get to the final three. it explains his voting out the rest of the men, to make sure they were on the jury. once the women have to turn on themselves, they won't vote for each other when on the jury. that gives tarzan the 5 men votes and at least one of the women. with 9 on the jury, that's more than enough to win. sorry for the spoiler, but the "game's afoot".

Interesting analysis.  I, too, have considered a Tarzan win, but here's where I disagree:

- Not sure if the early jury boots would be for a Tarzan vote.  I certainly wouldn't call them a "lock."  Obviously Troy would, as he was Kim's nemesis and didn't respect any of the girls.  Michael thought he was solid in Kim's alliance when they blindsided him, so theoretically he could be another Tarzan vote.  Jay I guess kind of fits in with the Michael line of thinking, although he seems like the type of soft jury member who will vote truthfully and not let the hurt feelings get in the way.  But the rest?  I can't see Jonas voting for him.  They really went at it the episode Jonas was booted, to the point where he even went over to tell Tarzan "no hard feelings" after the vote and Tarzan replied "hard feelings here" (nice social game there).  With Leif it's a question mark.  Even when he was rarely shown, we had no idea what kind of strategy he had, if any.

- On a more subjective note, I think you're giving Tarzan too much credit.  It saddens me that recognizing that you're useless and a goat is looked at as an actual strategy.  The goat strategy was originally created by strong players a few seasons in ... the first few seasons, it was different: Richard Hatch stayed true to his alliance as far as who he took to the end, Colby actually took Tina to the end and lost rather than taking the goat when he had the chance, etc.  Then great players like Brian Heidik recognized that an extra way to ensure a win is to sit next to someone who was just totally useless at the end to make it a no-brainer for the jury.  It has since became a prominent strategy that encourages weak, nonexistent gameplay.  Do I actually think Tarzan is a bright guy?  Yes.  Do I think he has strategically played the goat card?  Yes.  But I think it more has to do with the fact that he recognizes that he made no moves, was seen as goofy and dead weight, and decided to then play the goat card and pray to pull off a miracle rather than actually try to do something (i.e. make a move with Troy). 

[notoriouspbake]

interesting counterpoints cyclone.

tarzan's a plastic surgeon. he has to have some intelligence. and as lame as the "goat" strategy is, it's second only to kim's strategic game. it seems to us that tarzan doesn't try during challenges, and purposely fails. the ring toss last week, he watched the other person win, before attempting his last tosses. either he's that lame, or is trying to be the goat genius. we're hoping the latter.

heck, the only strategy exhibited this season were kim, colton, and too late troy. jonas talked, but never was able to pull the trigger. alicia is a hanger on, appearing to have game by hanging with those who actually had strategy but not making any moves.

perhaps this is the post russell fallout, where instead of playing too much strategy and irritating everyone, the strategy choice of most players now is the "just make sure my name isn't written down" before every tribal. which was lief, jay, mike, christina, sabrina, and many early departures' strategy. so, if you don't want to be a leader, you hang out with the dynamic personalities who speak their minds, and when they say "i was thinking vote out ___" as long as that's not your name, you agree. it's a lamer strategy than playing the goat.

as for the jonas/tarzan exchange, i thought there was some kind of amicable resolution. being wrong about that, it means that jonas wouldn't vote for him. puts a hole in our idea.

kim's game has been strong, but she's left plenty of opportunities for others to usurp her, if there were any strategy being played by this cast. she'd be tested if any other cast member has any game. kat is so dumb, and kim is clever enough to play her. after winning the rc and not picking kat, she came back and played kat with the "it was terrible to win and have to pick ppl" line. classic psychology. it's so tough to be the leader and make the decisions, kat, you just be a good little soldier, don't think - i'm doing that for all of us, and stay in line. good manipulation, shame of kat for letting it work.

the previews for next week tease of the cat fight to come. i bet kim's name never comes up, that's how little game her minions have: instead of fighting to win, they're fighting to be 4th.

[euro60]

the previews for next week tease of the cat fight to come. i bet kim's name never comes up, that's how little game her minions have: instead of fighting to win, they're fighting to be 4th.

sadly I think you are right. As I've mentioned before, there have been several moments that this game could've been turned around, and really make it interesting, such as this past episode when Troy pointed it out, but instead the minions do nothing. I would be very surprised if at this point Kim doesn't end up winning the whole thing. But I would love to be proven wrong, and maybe, just maybe Tarzan will emerge after all.

[cyclone]

and as lame as the "goat" strategy is, it's second only to kim's strategic game.

Yeah, no disagreement from me there, I just think of it more as a "lack of strategy turning into an actual strategy" kind of thing rather than one I think should actually be rewarded by the jury.  One thing that makes Tarzan different than the modern season's token goat is that he isn't playing the abrasive, "character" card (though he has managed to play a seemingly poor social game anyway).  By that I'm referencing, say, Phillip two seasons ago or Na Onka before that, who were not only goats but they played offensively horrible social games simply to be the goat at the end.  Russell even made himself a goat in that regard, although to his credit, he was playing to win the game even if he never figured out, three times through, that despite how hard you play, the social game is a key element.  Of course his excuse is that the game is inherently flawed in that regard (and to an extent that has a little merit with the whole "bitter jury" thing), but the reality is that a jury isn't going to vote for someone that they simply do not like.  And Colton was the same way this season.  Doesn't matter how hard you play, you're playing for second/third place when you if you ignore the social game. 

Kim is definitely in no danger and is basically already a F3 lock (in fact, her game reminds me of Boston Rob two seasons ago where he managed to skate to the end while also having a HII in pocket that will probably go obsolete).  I still think her last big move will be to take out Sabrina, who unless the editing is deceiving, probably thinks she's in the F3 alliance with Kim and Chelsea.  Who she decides to take to the end will be interesting.  I would think that she is a strong enough player she would recognize the Tarzan/5 men on the jury angle, despite how big of a goat she probably perceives him as.  Alicia is probably the best goat to take.  It has been toned down lately but she was awful in her confessionals toward the beginning and tried to be the female Colton.  That returned last week when she compared Christina to the special ed children she teaches.  Speaking of which, Christina would perhaps take the crown for absolute "least deserving" person to ever reach the finals.  With Kat you have to worry about people finding her lack of intelligence and maturity endearing.

Another thing that would at least help correct the encouragement of such weak strategy would be the return of a Final 2 as opposed to a Final 3.

[euro60]

Another thing that would at least help correct the encouragement of such weak strategy would be the return of a Final 2 as opposed to a Final 3.

Couldn't agree more! I really wish they'd go back to a Final 2 format.

[euro60]

Looks like I'll be at the Reds game tonight, so will be missing this (and not sure I care enough to catch up with the episode later on via the CBS website)...

[cyclone]

With the suspense of a surprise Tarzan victory gone after tonight, I began to wonder if this isn't the least enthusiastic I've ever been for a finale episode this Sunday.  Just two seasons ago, there was Redemption Island in which I had never been so sure of who the victor was going in than Boston Rob.  Earl's win in Fiji was similar to that criteria as well, as was Brian's in Thailand.  And you can go back a long ways to a season like Marquesas in which the F2 was just completely underwhelming and forgettable, sure. 

But overall, I can't say I'm really looking forward to sitting through this 2-hour finale at all.  It's Kim, who has been an exceptional player no doubt but who has had no competition, Sabrina who I like but I don't believe could win based on her edit, and a bunch of goats.  Yes, I even include Chelsea as a goat given her cocky social game.  I guess the only thing I want to see is the most deserving player to win and that the bitter, predominantly male jury doesn't do something wacky and vote for something else.  And I kind of don't think they will, considering that would mean voting for someone like Christina or Alicia.  Sabrina is someone who could beat Kim, but again, her edit has been a little too invisible for the diehard Survivor fan in me.

Oh, and of all immunity challenges to recycle, they bring back the "stick fish bones on a fish with one arm tied behind your back" from a few seasons ago?  Man, that is easily one of the worst challenges ever.

[cyclone]

*Finale talk*

First off, good for Kim.  I don't want to keep repeating myself, but I said in this thread 6-7 weeks ago that if she pulled off the win, she would easily be one of the best female winners.  We'll see more how her victory sits over time, but right now I'd say she's right behind Parvati in that regard.  Her flaws?  One was external, the lack of competition.  All of the women obviously benefited greatly from the trainwreck that was the men on this season.  Their decision to vote out Jonas right after the merge and allow the all male pecking order to freefall is something I simply can't chalk up to great gameplay on Kim's part, because while she orchestrated it, there's a common lack of common sense in the equation of "there's 6 men and 6 women, let's vote out one of our own and hope the women are being honest" that is as much baffling bad gameplay on their part.  Just like it was when the goats like Christina, Alicia and Tarzan didn't vote with Troy because they actually thought they had a better chance of sticking with Kim.  All that being said, Kim did do a ton right, and did a great job of balancing the the emotional/strategic balance of the game.  On paper, she couldn't have played much better.  She found a HII (and didn't even have to use it), orchestrated a rare all women alliance, won a bunch of challenges down the stretch and was rewarded by the jury for taking her true alliance to the end rather than some goats, of which she had several to choose from.

A complaint: how do they honestly expect the winner to not be extremely obvious with that voting order they reveal?  Kim-Sabrina-Kim-Sabrina-Kim-Kim ... wow, do you really expect us to believe that Sabrina is going to come back at that point?  I know that's probably not something they put a lot of focus on but at least make it interesting.  It is, after all, the climax of the entire show.  

Mixed feelings about the calm/tolerant jury ... on one hand I respect the fact that the majority of them recognized that it's the game and didn't take it personally on an emotional level, it was a little boring that we got mostly praise and compliments from the jury rather than some scathing bitterness here and there ... probably a testament to the lack of fight in the players, as people like Jay and Leif had no game in the actual game either.

I liked at the reunion when Troy talked about getting complimented by fans for playing a great game, and Probst retorted that "people may have said that, but ultimately you were outplayed."  To which Troy responded "well yeah, outplayed and outdumbed."  Probst then quickly asked someone else a question, because he knew that Troy was right, obviously it was horrible gameplay for the people who chose not to vote with him, and their fate went exactly as expected ... Christina, Tarzan, Alicia and Kat.  And unlike Christina deciding to give people hugs, roll over and play dead, Troy played as hard as I've ever seen anyone on the chopping block play.  

Pretty bad season.  The oversatuartion of Colton made the pre-merge almost unbearable, and most of the gameplay post-merge was just nonexistant.  We actually had to start debating the merits of whether or not Tarzan's uselessness was actually the best strategy out there after Kim, let alone a strategy at all, so that should tell you something.  

It looks like the rumors I previously posted about next season are true, so let the countdown begin.

[euro60]

I missed it all in the last few weeks. But I'm still up for the next season, which cannot be worse than what it was this past season. So I'm hopeful.

[Poncho]

Lame season.  Not the worst, but lame.  Kim deserved to win out of anyone left.  Chelsea would've gotten my vote for being much hotter, but sadly, she didn't do much else. 

Troy's comment was spot on, but you have to slap him for his biting on the Michael thing.  He bit and he bit hard.  He bit wrong.

[cyclone]

Offseason blues ...

It looks like season 26 (the season after next) is set to be a Fans vs. Favorites part II kind of thing. 

As you all know, I am completely over returning players and that overplayed element that they bring to the game, so this is a bit disappointing considering next season is already going to feature the 3 returning players leading 3 new tribes.  I guess at the very least it's better than having full-on All-Star seasons with no new players.  But I can't say I really expected anything else, the show's lifespan has to be winding down as it is now renewed past S25.  I wouldn't guess we'll see any new seasons after S30, but I've been wrong before (I predicted the big Heroes vs. Villains at 20 might have been it, and then I thought we might stop at 25). 

Seeing the suspected castlist of the "favorites" is probably what disappoints me the most, though.  And as a disclaimer, I have no idea how accurate these are, but I'm getting them from a source that I know tries very hard to weed out bad info and speculation.  I'm seeing Phillip, Cochran, Brandon Hantz, Erik (gave up the HII to get voted out in original Fans vs. Favorites), and a bunch of women that I doubt many here will remember ... Brenda, Andrea, Dawn.  I believe most of these were figured out from lack of social media activity as filming is currently taking place and so fourth.  That is a pretty atrocious list, with a bit of the cliche "second chance, redemption" angle vibe going on.  And generally seeing that list, I probably wouldn't believe it, but again, this site is generally pretty trustworthy.  So just a heads up.

Oh, and apparently ex-MLB player Jeff Kent is on next season.

[euro60]

Given how poorly the most recent season fared, also declining sizeably in the ratings, I think Survivor is going to be on a pretty short leash, so yes we'll get the 2 upcoming seasons, but if the Fall season performs poorly again, I wouldn't be surprised if next Spring's season might be it. At least on CBS. Maybe it'll migrate away to a cable channel.

I know you have this huge aversion against returning players. I really don't care one way or another. Look at the most season. No returning players, and a crap season. For me it's all about the way the players shake out, how entertaining/strategic it is, etc. Whether it's with new players or returning players, I don't care. Last season, the entertainment value was the lowest it had ever been. I can only hope it gets better this Fall.

[cyclone]

Given how poorly the most recent season fared, also declining sizeably in the ratings, I think Survivor is going to be on a pretty short leash, so yes we'll get the 2 upcoming seasons, but if the Fall season performs poorly again, I wouldn't be surprised if next Spring's season might be it. At least on CBS. Maybe it'll migrate away to a cable channel.

Already being renewed through S26, I think it will at least make it to 30.  That's just speculation (for years now, it has been renewed by two seasons every year), but I can't really see it ending on a random number like 26.  The ratings angle is interesting, because it's really impossible to tell whether or not that's really a significant factor to them anymore.  Obviously, the show still gets millions of viewers and I'm sure that CBS would not be giddy to pull the plug on such a staple for going on 13 years now, but for about 10 of those past years, the show has moved into more of a niche market and further and further from the mainstream.  So in the grand scheme of things, I'm not sure how much the ratings are still a factor.  I think it will probably just be the point when Mark Burnett and/or Jeff Probst (who is an executive producer now) decide to pull the plug. 

And yeah, I'm not saying that new casts automatically mean better seasons, but to me those seasons are automatically more interesting and fresh from the start.  We've just seen so many returning players at this point that the way they shake out become predictable.  Look at the back-to-back seasons of two returnees leading two new tribes (Rob/Russell and Ozzy/Coach) ... Rob and Coach easily made the finals after their tribes kept them for leadership and experience at the beginning and then were to petrified to make a move later in the game.  Or in the original All-Stars, so many great players being voted out early leading us to an Amber victory.  So, to counter, I don't think you can automatically say that a returning player season will be better, either.  At any rate, getting poor results out of a season with a new cast is more a fault with CBS and casting than anything else.  Look at what they gave us to work with last season with the men's tribe, for example.