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Author Topic: Random Political Musings  (Read 86274 times)

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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1545 on: June 03, 2019, 05:12:29 PM »

Well, you're right of course. 

I'm not trying to discourage people from voting, and I think it's wrong for people to feel helpless. They make bad decisions and that's how we got Trump in the first place. That's my thing whenever people from either side complain about big corporations, or big government, or corruption.  Those people are there because we elected them, stop blaming the system and go out there and vote to change it.

But I have a job and am in the wealthier part of the population where maybe no one exactly handed me everything but I at least had the opportunity to make good choices and be rewarded for them.  To the extent I haven't been more successful at life, it's due to either bad decisions or I just decided I didn't need more money and my peace of mind was worth more.  I've never been in a situation where my choices were really limited and all of them were kind of sucky.  So it doesn't really require any significant amount of mental fortitude to persevere.  Plus I'm not trying to find a babysitter and waiting in line 5 hours to vote.

It's kind of like when a team goes down 0-2 in a playoff series.  Of course the best thing is to just play one game at a time, and if you ask the players, that's what they'll all say.  It's self-defeating to think too much about it.  But you can't tell me teams play as well when they are down 0-2 as when it's 0-0. 

Like, when you see people or ads encouraging people to vote it's always "Your vote could make the difference!"  You don't see any ads like "You're in a gerrymandered district.  Your vote won't make any difference!"  There's a reason for that.

Regardless of what how we try and stop it, or what the right attitude should be, Trump and the GOP are trying to crush spirits and it's working.  That is going to have an effect.

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1546 on: June 03, 2019, 11:21:22 PM »

Of course a lot will depend on who the Dem nominee will be.
And this says everything we need to know about the GOP. At this point, it really shouldn't matter who the dems nominate. There is no one in the dem field that is anywhere near as bad as Trump has shown to be. Even if the dems pull out Hillary again, she should win based on the fact of how bad Trump is. At a minimum, people should stay home or abstain from the presidential race if they don't want to vote for either of them. But the GOP is all in on the terrible things he is doing, so they will support him with the thought that "Hillary will be worse" (which they will say no matter who the dems nominate), which is just an impossibility. Trump has pulled out what the GOP has wanted to do all along, and they are fully on board for all of it. That is why people are resigned to Trump again, because enough people between those who really think he is doing a good job and those who just want to anger the liberals that will vote for him.
But the reality is that it DOES matter who the Dems nominate. Not to us here on the randomville boards (as we are frankly insular and all wanting Trump out), but for the "dumb" general public out there. Let's just say that Elizabeth Warren were to become the Dems nominee, I think Trump will sail through, and easily at that. Same with Bernie. But if a moderate Dem  gets the nomination, I think Trump will be voted out.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1547 on: June 03, 2019, 11:25:50 PM »

Stay away from social media, encourage your friends to participate in democracy, and stop predicting the end of the world.  If Trump wins there's no one to blame except those who didn't vote.
AGREED!
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1548 on: June 03, 2019, 11:33:54 PM »

Like, when you see people or ads encouraging people to vote it's always "Your vote could make the difference!"  You don't see any ads like "You're in a gerrymandered district.  Your vote won't make any difference!"  There's a reason for that.
But thankfully the gerrymandering of districts doesn't matter in the presidential election.

As I've said many times before, people get the politicians they deserve, and that is true no more than in the presidential election. If this country re-elects Trump, that is what we deserve, and all of us here on randomville are just chumps, out of touch with the country.

For the record, since I became a US citizen in 2008, I have voted 3 times in the presidential elections, and as it tuned out, I voted for the losing candidate each time.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1549 on: June 03, 2019, 11:58:55 PM »

I don't know.

Sanders is the only Democrat who tge blue collar dems turned GOP really relate to, and he also generates the most enthusiasm among the youth.  But POC's aren't too fired up about him.

Biden has the most mass appeal and if we just suddenly voted tomorrow, I think he bears Trump.  But his likeability is based on a facade.  When people find out he's not the friendly/goofy hipster grandpa they think he is, may rank.  He's doing a pretty stellar job so far with how he handles Trump, though.  I'll give him that.

The other candidates are just a big mess of yawn.  I'll vote for him.  Most reasonable people will.  But I don't see what really lifts them up above Clinton and gets people fired up.

Yeah yeah, Clinton was a terrible candidate.  Wrong.  She was a boring, normal candidate who looked like a horrible person to people who wanted to believe it.  Fox will do the same hatchet job on any one of those other candidates and they will be seen like Clinton by the time election time rolls around.  O'Rourke has a bit of charisma and craftiness to him maybe.  But we have not seen enough of him in the spotlight yet.

It's tough to run as a moderate, because no one gives a shit about traditional moderate Republicans.  Informed establishment Republicans have already been forced to make their choice and they are not going to switch now.  They had a chance to prove whether they were principled moderates or a bunch of cowards.  Most of them went the coward route.  Like your man Kasich.  His endorsement is worthless now even if he had the balls to endorse a Democrat, which he doesn't.

What good is a compromiser if there is no one else willing to compromise?  There is not a single Republican in Congress who I have any desire to meet halfway.  Nor do I trust anyone who thinks that is a good idea.

Anyone who follows politics and has a brain is pretty much #nevertrump by now.  And it isn't enough.  The trick is to appeal to stupid voters.  It will take an outside populist approach to pull that off.  You can be a strident "common sense" centrist maybe, but not a moderate.  And you'd have to run less centrist than you'd actually govern.

Moderate Dems work in states like Virginia or North Carolina.  No one cares about Virginia and North Carolina. 

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1550 on: June 04, 2019, 12:09:54 AM »

But thankfully the gerrymandering of districts doesn't matter in the presidential election.

It still matters because if you cannot change your local and state reps, there's less chance of you voting for President.  What good us having a liberal President if Congress just kills everything they try.

But that was just an example.  I think that there were a lot of people blue collar Dems who were swayed by Trump because they thought he was different.  Now that some of them realize he's a phony, they just become disillusioned with politics in general.

Trump's appeal is that he does not care about Democracy, and neither do his supporters.  They are not trying to change minds or win a popularity contest.  If it is a popularity contest, they lose.  So they are trying to win despite everyone hating them.  Defeating your opponents psychologically so they're too beaten down to resist is a part of the strategy. 

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1551 on: June 04, 2019, 11:12:51 PM »


Anyone who follows politics and has a brain is pretty much #nevertrump by now.  And it isn't enough.  The trick is to appeal to stupid voters.  It will take an outside populist approach to pull that off.  You can be a strident "common sense" centrist maybe, but not a moderate.  And you'd have to run less centrist than you'd actually govern.

I think that, sadly, you may be right about that.

But it proves my earlier point that "we get the politicians we deserve"

I have no clue that any of the Dems can pull this off.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1552 on: June 05, 2019, 03:03:23 PM »

I honestly think it's like 50/50.

I feel like the depressing part isn't the odds are against defeating Trump.  It's that there's not much you can do to change them.  The election is just going to depend on what people who don't follow politics at all and don't know much about the issues randomly decide to do in November. 

There's a big mental distinction between trying something that has a 50% chance of working vs just helpless watching a 50/50 coin flip.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1553 on: June 06, 2019, 12:44:26 PM »

If people vote based on their current situation then Trump can win unless he destroys the economy, which he's trying to do.  Farmers are hurting, manufacturing is hurting, and if these Mexico tariffs start then auto's will be hurting as well.  The one thing that can hurt repubs is when the majority of people are in financial turmoil.  All this social media nonsense, and really the media in general, are just not that important when it comes to the majority of voters.   

The dems problem right now is they are trying to destroy the most electable candidates.  Warren can not win, Bernie can not win. It's still a center/right country, whatever that means anymore, and anyone who is too progressive or too socialist is not going to do well in a general election.  I see now that Biden is getting grief for supporting the Hyde amendment which ensures government money does not go towards abortions.  Like it or not that's a majority position.  A woman should have the right to choose, the government should not have to pay for it.   You bet your ass he can still win with that, and win big, but he'll be destroyed before he gets the chance.

Or not ... since most of my predictions are wrong. 
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1554 on: June 06, 2019, 02:05:55 PM »

I don't know what the country is anymore.  It's increasingly fractured and those fractures are not always along traditional right/left lines.

But thing I do know the country ISN'T, is center/right.  Name me a single supposedly moderate right politician who stands even the slightest chance of winning either the primary or the general election.  I think a moderate right candidate would likely get less votes than a Libertarian, Socialist, or Green candidate.

Hyde Amendment is stupid. Probably a good example of why the moderate right is dead.  Trying to cast this as a neutral "the government shouldn't have to pay for abortions" is a piece of BS so transparent everyone sees through it.  You don't want your tax payer money funding abortions?  Cool.  But I do.  Don't I have as much right to say how my taxes are spent as you do? 

I'm not necessarily saying the government has to be neutral.  Just that it's a sham to pretend that the Hyde Amendment is.  Even the right is like "Fuck this noise.  We just said that to get our foot in the door.  We have a strong position on this, and that position is that no one can have abortions.  Period."

The reason why the moderate right is dead is because all of their stances for at least 20 years have been bullshit.  They're still doing it.  "The President creating emergency orders is going too far towards a monarchy.  What we need is to have a serious talk and a vote about what to do with these rapists and criminals invading our country."  Well no, if we have millions of rapists and criminals invading our shores that's 100% a National Emergency.  The problem is, it's a lie.

The far right makes a ton more sense than the moderate right.  They are operating any a ton of false premises, but if you can accept the premise at least the logic is sound.  The moderate right uses those same false premises, but then their logic doesn't even follow.

No one has ever been moderate right.  What the moderate right was good at doing was convincing people that the moderate left is the extreme left.  Some of you still can't lose the habit.  Even Bernie Sanders is not really anywhere close to being a Socialist.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1555 on: June 06, 2019, 06:13:44 PM »


So who is the center right?  Democrats probably closer than anyone else at the moment.   People don't recognize compromise anymore, it's always some hidden fucking agenda.  I look forward to another 5 more years of carrot head while then dems maybe figure out that they must run to the center if they are going to win a national (presidential) election.  There's a long history of this problem as I'm sure you're aware.  Dems owned congress but not the presidency.  History will repeat itself if they haven't learned that lesson.   

What might be a lot of fun is Trump in a second term with democrats having majorities in both the house and senate.   Good fun.


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dirk

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1556 on: June 06, 2019, 07:26:47 PM »

You know who was center right? Hillary Clinton. And look what happened there.

The issue is that center right doesn't energize the left, which is what is needed. We found out in the last election that the far right and the center right will vote for the GOP candidate, no matter how terrible they are. If someone still vote GOP at this point, there is no way a moderate candidate will sway them because they are not moderate, they are extreme right. At this point, any reasonable moderate is voting against the GOP pretty much no matter who the dems put up. What the dems need is to make sure every liberal voter gets out and votes, and that happens by putting up a liberal candidate. There is no way to win over GOP voters at this point, no matter how "moderate" they claim to be.
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Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1557 on: June 06, 2019, 07:41:17 PM »

And Hillary got my vote AND won the popular vote.  She was a bad bad candidate, that election was hard to lose.   

Obama was also center right IMO, he energized the left just fine.  Repubs want everyone to think he was some progressive wacko liberal but his policies sure looked moderate to me.

Like I said, history will repeat itself if dems go left.   Or not.  But think of the damage if someone like Warren or Sanders wins and tanks he economy trying to spend money we don't have.  Solution would be to raise taxes and raise spending and that would almost ensure a 1 term president and real harm to the democratic party.  IMO.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 07:48:15 PM by Markalot »
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1558 on: June 06, 2019, 08:05:38 PM »

Itíll be someone from the current mid-left, I think. Clinton actually had about the right strategy and she was more liberal than Obama who was centrist despite what people might have you believe, just people hated her.  The right is either diehard Trump or useless, so you unite the left.

Basically combine Bidenís public persona (non-perv edition) with slightly further left than Clinton policy.  Personality is the most important thing, really.  Because unifying the left under ďTump sucksĒ is not too difficult.  You mostly stick with that, stay vague and tent pole-ish when it comes to specific policy.


The Democrats have the numbersó they won the popular vote and lost by a fraction in the swing states they needed.  So the trick is to not piss off anyone on the left and get them to the booths.  They do not need to expand their base, just to get the base to vote.

On the right, I think that most of the ex-moderate and even middle right are aware that Trump is a boob.  Even like Carlson and Tucker who are happy to suck off the far right for ratings canít really hide their contempt.  All the old-school snobby GOP guys you like canít stand him. 

Iím not saying any of these types will vote Democrat, but you can maybe get them not to vote. If your choice is a liberal whose views you disagree with strongly but isnít really going to upend the constitution or sell America to Russia, then maybe you are okay with sitting this one out on principle knowing that the Dems are not as bad or at least no worse then Trump.

You cannot do anything about the evangelical far right true believers in red states.  Weíll call them them 40% of the vote and the furthest 40% right.  Those guys you punt.  To get the other 60% you just try and find the middle.  Midway between 40 and 100 is 70.  Because of the bell curve, and because you can still be the farthest left person at well under 70%, you may not want to be exactly in the middle at 70% left.  So you shoot for maybe 65%

You and euro60 are probably around 45%.  Iím maybe 55%.  So itís going to be someone farther left than any of us would like.  But if Trump is at 20% and you are 45%, youíre still closer to the 65% Democrat candidate than you are Trumpís 20%.

Like basically, we lost.  The country is left of us.  We are only trying to hold the lines where they are and keep it from going even further left.  But itís not going to move right.

The hard part is knowing exactly where that 65% line is.  But, if youíre going to miss you miss left.  Say the Democrat is 70% where Trump and whoever are now equidistant and quite far removed from your views.  Policy-wise, they are both equally unpalatable.  Iím guessing you will hold your nose and vote for the one who is not a dangerous lunatic dickhead.  So, thatís where the persona comes into play.

I mean, if you voted for Clinton in the last election and now youíve seen how Trump fulfilled or exceeded your worst nightmare, then you will vote Dem again.  Youíll probably be willing even to move a bit farther left if you have to, right?  So thereís no reason to move right.  They will not lose your vote.  They just need to get their own voters out, and those are not middle/older age white dudes.  They are students, gays, minorities, blue collar ex-union.
 
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 08:07:31 PM by Zafer Kaya »
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1559 on: June 07, 2019, 11:02:27 PM »

Interesting move by Trump here.  Heís playing Mexico the way I thought he would play China.

You create an artificial crisis with some vague but strong sounding demands, you wring a few nothing concessions, you call it a win.  Trump gets to claim victory, the other country gives up nothing but now Trump has an incentive to be on your side since, if you keep making nukes or not stopping migrants, it makes him look bad. 

So with China, Trump complains about the trade deficit who choose I have no idea how China is supposed to solve.  But they can buy more soy beans which helps a smidge, and China does not care since our soybeans are cheap and they can concentrate on destroying us with 5G tech.  And stealing IP, which they do care about.  Trump gets a concession, farmers are ecstatic.  Everyone claims victory.

But Trump is like ďHell no with the soybeans thing.Ē 

But twice now he has done this with Mexico.  First with NAFTA 1.00001 and now with the border thing.  But I mean, his supporters care a ton about Mexico.  If the migration problem is not solved and Trump declares it so, they will notice.  And itís going to be hard at this point to get them to accept anything less than 0 immigration. 

I think he saw his support weaken when he caved on the spending bill.  Then to make up for it, he did the National Emergency thing.  But now some of the crazy right is getting pissed there is no follow up.  At least a portion of the Breitbart crowd is going to be mad that he didnít wring any firm commitments out of Mexico and especially the one specific issue that was in play regarding asylum.

He can convince people that he and Kim Jung Un are now buds, and that Iran is cowering in fear, and that Saudi Arabia never did anything wrong because he says so.  But I donít think itís going to be quite so easy to convince people he has solved the immigration ďcrisis.Ē  Props to Schumer for immediately pointing out the pickle Trump is in.

I think Trump has room to play with because the crazy right will still go for him over Dems.  But he won by so little.  Even a few hardcore supporters losing enthusiasm and not voting could make a difference.  But the bigger issue is it opens up an opportunity for a far right person to out-right Trump by pointing out his actions have not matched his talk and run third party.  That hurts him in two ways.  Itís a legit true attack that will resonate with the right.  And this person is going to be an utter loon that will be too much for a few of the swing voters.  The scary danger to Trump has always been from the far right more than the left.  Someone who is not trying all that hard to win is always dangerous.  Thatís how Bernie got the Dems.
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