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Author Topic: Random Political Musings  (Read 100706 times)

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Kwyjibo

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1725 on: November 07, 2019, 09:11:28 AM »

You also have to consider that Kentucky gubernatorial races have historically gone to democrats, no matter how right leaning the state is as a whole.  No republican incumbent has ever been reelected in Kentucky (only one other has tried).

Huh. Any insights (from anyone here) as to why?

Well, a lot of is that it was not allowed until the state constitution was amended to allow it in 1992.  So, I guess it's not a super compelling of a factoid.  But there have been democrats reelected during that time.
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Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1726 on: November 07, 2019, 07:40:56 PM »

It didn't help that Bevin came to Northern Kentucky University and basically said he thinks we should consider tolls for the I75 bridge to Ohio.  He originally ran on no tolls.  He lost Kenton and Cambell county.  He tried to nationalize the race and to some extent it worked, he would have lost by a whole lot more if only running on his record. 
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1727 on: November 08, 2019, 09:51:54 PM »

Feel a little bad for the Republican guy who lost in my district.  According to 538, where I live has a +1 Republican lean.  And he got smoked 55-45.

Traditionally this is a classically suburban, mainstream GOP district. Ex-Majority leader Eric Cantor before he went insane was a typical candidate.  Local kid, went to school at William and Mary, moderate guy, pretty quiet, his wife is a Democrat (and really nice).  The last GOP delegate was this guy Loupassi, another local kid, went to St. Christopher then Washington & Lee.  Parents own a local restaurant, he is a local attorney.  One of the nicer dudes in the GA voted against his party in some LGBTQ issues.

This is the kind of district everyone is watching to see if it will turn against Trump. The last election, Loupassi was unseated by a Dem.  THAT wa a big deal.  Like I knew people who went to school with Loupassi, their families have always attended the same church.  And they voted against him just because he was GOP, even though they still liked him.

So normally, this is a situation of a typical near-urban area becoming increasingly liberal as new people move in and one that rejects the knd of far right shit Trump brought to the table.

Except that the person that unseated him was Dawn Adams, who has proven to be both incompetent and corrupt.  She is not that much liked.  And she barely won last time.

So what happened?  How did she go from barely winning to absolutely crushing her challenger in just two years despite a scandal ridden first term?

Yes, the Dems poured in money and yes she is an incumbent, and yes the area is getting bluer.  But that is not what I think happened.

I think what happened is that my district contains a couple of country club area.  Like, you don’t see too many places like this anymore.  Lots of stone and carefully shaped box woods, every house done up in English manor style, most over $1m.  Even young rich lawyer Republicans din’rpt want to live in places like that anymore.  Like no one there is under 60, and they all dress like Judge Smails in 2020.  Needless to say, those areas are the reddest of red.

I am fairly certain the GOP vote was low because none of those people will vote for a black man.  Even if the alternative is a lesbian.  We’re talking about a district with a country club that did not admit a black member until 1992.  “Sure,” you say, “That’s bad but that was still nearly 30 years ago.”  Right, but those same fuckers are still living there, voted for Nixon there, and will die there, probably very soon.

He was a good candidate.  Pretty moderate, ran on traditional issues like lowering taxes and helping small business.  Ran a positive campaign without any immigration or “They are coming to take your guns” crap. 

He got boned because he is black.  I feel bad about the racism.  But I mean, that’s what he gets for running as a Republican I guess.  There are no black Republicans in the General Assembly, and there have not been for 20 years.  There have only been two ever.  So, I mean, he chose that path.  Maybe he learns now that his party is beyond reforming.  Honestly, he could have run as a centrist Democrat on that same platform and quite possibly have primaried the incumbent and then cruised to a bipartisan victory.

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1728 on: November 08, 2019, 11:34:50 PM »

Also, very oddball move by the GOP today.  I feel like the very last person in the world I want to be handling the most critical situation right now is Jim Jordan.

I wonder what is up?  Do they know something we don't or can they really be this oblivious?   Or do they know that things have gotten to such a state that voters don't care about Jordan covering up sexual abuse?

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1729 on: November 12, 2019, 10:45:59 AM »

That was a good day last week when Kentucky dickhead-gov. Matt Bevon lost re-election in a red state that Trump won by 30 points or thereabouts in 2016, all the more since Trump on election-eve came out to Lexington and said it would be a terrible news for him (Trump) if Bevon lost. Take that, fucker.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1730 on: November 12, 2019, 03:10:23 PM »

Doesn't matter.  The GOP is in heaps of trouble but Trump is untouchable in red states.

40% of the country are literally Nazis now.  I mean it.  Trump could start gassing people at ICE refugee camps and photos would come out and his supporters would wave it away as not true or they must be criminals that deserved it, etc.

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1731 on: November 12, 2019, 03:34:19 PM »

40% of the country are literally Nazis now.  I mean it.  Trump could start gassing people at ICE refugee camps and photos would come out and his supporters would wave it away as not true or they must be criminals that deserved it, etc.
I agree with that. There is LITERALLY nothing that Trump can do that would lead to that 40% to lose confidence/support in Trump.

This week's cover story in TIME Magazine is all about that. Trump can get away with anything (including gassing people at border detention centers) because that 40% literally wants him to do it.

I read somewhere that Republicans thought that impeachment would be good for them as enraged conservatives would vote en masse, but last week election shows that the other 60% is even MORE enraged and MORE determined to vote. I can only hope that this is still the case a year from now. If it is, it will be a blue wave like never seen before.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

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daytime drinking

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1732 on: November 14, 2019, 11:50:40 AM »

i love how the dems routinely ignore the fact that biden may have committed a crime and just call zelensky a liar instead
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Kwyjibo

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1733 on: November 14, 2019, 12:14:23 PM »

i love how the dems routinely ignore the fact that biden may have committed a crime and just call zelensky a liar instead

*sigh*

You can't fix stupid.
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daytime drinking

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1734 on: November 14, 2019, 12:50:02 PM »

i don't think biden's above the law.  political rival be damned.  not germane
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1735 on: November 14, 2019, 02:05:44 PM »

Here's the problem.

Biden can say, and it's pretty much indisputable, that he was just following the policy of the US, and of the international community.  Also, in what way did anything Biden do help him?  He wanted a prosecutor fired for not prosecuting crimes.  That prosecutor was not going after Burisma. So what did Biden have to personally gain from this?  His son was not at risk.  If anything getting a tougher prosecutor would have put his son in greater danger.  On top of that, there's no indication that Hunter did anything illegal himself. He's a grifter, yes.  And he got the job due to his dad.  But there's nothing illegal about any of the work he did for Burisma.

Also, at no point did Biden ever mention Burisma.  All he said was "I made Ukraine fire the prosecutor."

Biden should have recused himself because of a conflict of interest to avoid all this shit.  But whatever.

What you have is a conspiracy theory based only on a rather vague conflict of interest and zero evidence.  What you have with Trump is an accusation of the same wrongdoing with mounds of evidence.

If what Biden did was a crime, then what Trump did is also a crime, only way more provable.  If what Biden did was not a crime, then why is Trump investigating Biden on something which he himself asserts is not criminal, unless Trump is trying to damage a political opponent.

This is why I always say that conspiracy theories are stupid.  If the government wants to fuck you, they will do it right in front of your face.  They have no reason to construct elaborate plans, when Trump can blatantly bribe Ukraine for Biden info. and people don't believe it but on the other hand they believe in Qanon shit. 

Dan

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1736 on: November 14, 2019, 03:16:24 PM »

I'm all like, "how are there MORE people entering this race?" The crowded field is really a problem, so having more entries really doesn't help.

I liked Bloomberg as a mayor and if he was 10 years younger I'd be excited about him as a candidate. But now? Huh?
And the guy from Massachusetts? Not sure how he's helping anything.
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daytime drinking

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1737 on: November 14, 2019, 11:12:14 PM »

Here's the problem.

Biden can say, and it's pretty much indisputable, that he was just following the policy of the US, and of the international community.  Also, in what way did anything Biden do help him?  He wanted a prosecutor fired for not prosecuting crimes.  That prosecutor was not going after Burisma. So what did Biden have to personally gain from this?  His son was not at risk.  If anything getting a tougher prosecutor would have put his son in greater danger.  On top of that, there's no indication that Hunter did anything illegal himself. He's a grifter, yes.  And he got the job due to his dad.  But there's nothing illegal about any of the work he did for Burisma.

Also, at no point did Biden ever mention Burisma.  All he said was "I made Ukraine fire the prosecutor."

Biden should have recused himself because of a conflict of interest to avoid all this shit.  But whatever.

What you have is a conspiracy theory based only on a rather vague conflict of interest and zero evidence.  What you have with Trump is an accusation of the same wrongdoing with mounds of evidence.

If what Biden did was a crime, then what Trump did is also a crime, only way more provable.  If what Biden did was not a crime, then why is Trump investigating Biden on something which he himself asserts is not criminal, unless Trump is trying to damage a political opponent.

This is why I always say that conspiracy theories are stupid.  If the government wants to fuck you, they will do it right in front of your face.  They have no reason to construct elaborate plans, when Trump can blatantly bribe Ukraine for Biden info. and people don't believe it but on the other hand they believe in Qanon shit.

trump didn't withhold the aid though, for that reason.  but i guess people don't want to believe the president of ukraine whom never carried out the "suggestion."  why would the president commit a crime over the phone knowing the call was recorded and he can barely trust anyone around him
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dirk

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1738 on: November 15, 2019, 06:48:59 AM »

How do you know Trump didn't withhold aid for that reason? Because he said so. Other people have said they were told the opposite. The whole point of the investigation is to look at the evidence and try to determine exactly what happened and why. You don't shut down an investigation because the guy accused of wrongdoing says he is innocent. As to why the president would do something like this on a phone call he knew was recorded, it's could be because he didn't see it as a crime or just didn't think he could be or would be prosecuted.

How often is someone the victim of extortion and they don't admit it? How often do both sides of a bribe admit there was a bride? The president of Ukraine could be saying that because he is afraid of other blow back from the administration if he says what actually happened. It's not like the administration still wouldn't have any leverage to use on him. It certainly doesn't help the case but it also doesn't prove it didn't happen either.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1739 on: November 15, 2019, 11:24:18 AM »

trump didn't withhold the aid though, for that reason.

There is a lot more evidence that Trump might have withheld the aid over an investigation into Biden than there is that Biden wanted the prosecutor fired to help out his son. 

Compare the two cases.  The alleged crimes are similar and revolve around showing the same elements.  There's a shit-ton more evidence and motive for Trump.
 
Quote
why would the president commit a crime over the phone knowing the call was recorded and he can barely trust anyone around him

Because he thinks you're that fucking stupid.  And he's right.
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