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Author Topic: Random Political Musings  (Read 46438 times)

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Dan

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1425 on: November 07, 2018, 04:57:32 PM »

Illinois is probably purple now.  People are leaving Illinois in droves.  Really, people are leaving most big cities because it's too expensive.  Those people are moving to smaller places where it's a little more affordable.  Cincy is probably one of them. 

But that's basically why Richmond and the other Southern cities are seeing a boom. 

I'm not sure about this.

Caveat: I'm not sure I'm up to date, either, and feel a little like a doctor in his 60s who's still practicing medicine the way he did when he got out of med school and hasn't been updated on the latest breakthroughs...

Last I heard it wasn't that people were moving out of the big cities an into smaller cities, it was that people were moving from suburbs to cities and from rural to urban (of any size, although big cities got the most). This explains everything you've mentioned, while not stating that big cities are in decline. They are pricey, though....and don't I know it.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1426 on: November 07, 2018, 06:13:40 PM »

The big cities are not in decline.  Kind of the opposite, I think.

Itís more a matter of scale. The big cities were so big and dense, they were almost sort of bound to regress.  As the demand for city life increases, things get expensive.  When things get expensive, areas get gentrified and the slum housing where a family of four used to live in 900 square feet becomes a luxury penthouse for an uber rich couple.  So, you just lost half your population in that space.  The big cities were unhealthily dense in some areas.

I think New Yorkers donít notice this, because they donít often go to bad parts of town.  In their minds the city might even seem to be expanding because there is now a fancy store or condo where there used to be ďnothing.Ē

The other way it scales is proportion of population.  If a factory that employs 200 people in a small town closes, itís all over for that town.  Itís totally fucked forever.  Whereas if you evicted 200 people from an apartment in NYC, it may not even make the local news.

If NYC lost .1% of its population, would they even notice?  But that would constitute a massive 4% increase to Richmond.  So it doesnít take much of an outflow from NY, LA or CHI to tilt the demographics of the places where those people land.

And they appear to be going to the South.  That trend has been going on for awhile.

Markalot

  • Citizen
  • Posts: 289
Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1427 on: November 07, 2018, 07:33:36 PM »

I grew up in the Chicago burbs and recently visited so I was researching how the local economy was doing, my old neighborhood, etc.  It's growing, big time, and commuter rail traffic is also growing rapidly, and making a profit.  Chicago has always been spread out because of the commuter rail lines.

The election ran as expected.  The economy is good and most people vote with their wallet.  We've argued this in the past ... is someone racist because they don't give a shit when times are good?  I don't have an answer, I can only say that it's not surprising.  The current economy is good so healthcare trickled to the top of the list because that's that's what can ruin people financially.  Obamacare is here to stay, which in many ways is a really good thing.  Someday it will be fixed to work better. 
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-- Mark

Dan

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1428 on: November 08, 2018, 09:45:02 AM »

Fair points, all of them.

If NYC lost .1% of its population, would they even notice?  But that would constitute a massive 4% increase to Richmond.  So it doesnít take much of an outflow from NY, LA or CHI to tilt the demographics of the places where those people land.

And they appear to be going to the South.  That trend has been going on for awhile.

It's true. NYC's 2010 population was 8 million, and they expect it to be 8.5 million at the next census. That's 500,000 people, which is a lot of things and a lot of ways to look at statistics. For NYC, it's over 6% growth which sounds manageable but will require some work.

But in this case...if (fill in the blank....any city that doesn't have 4 professional sports teams) were to grow by 500,000 people it'd be a monumental shift in everything. Traffic, schools, housing, box retail, small retail, etc. Imagine the city you live in, dear Randomvillain, and then add 500,000 people to it in 10 years. What would it look like? Where would the issues be?

So that's fun. But back on topic - the people are moving to cities and if the Republican vs Democrat paradigm remains rural vs urban, respectively, then trends say the future is blue. That is, until the Dems screw it up.
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Zafer Kaya

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  • Posts: 3,340
Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1429 on: November 08, 2018, 11:05:38 AM »

But 6% in ten years is really not that much compared to the overall US population growth. 

Essentially, old people are moving out of NYC.  Primarily to the South and Florida.  Which we can consider that "dying" in this population scenario.  Grim, but let's face that's what's going on.  They're moving to Florida to die there.  But the birth rate in US is faster than the death rate so NYC-- like the US-- is still growing.  It's just growing at a relatively slower rate than other places.

Compare that to Richmond, where we have grown 12% already from 2010-2018.  Which again-- scale.  12% growth in Richmond is way less people than 6% in NYC.  So the actual impacts here rather subtle to New Yorkers but massive to Richmond.  But still, you can see the relative strengthening of the South vs NYC.  We're growing at twice the national rate, NY is just sort of keeping up.

And yes, the GOP is absolutely fucked.  That's why they are behaving the way they are.  They know that in the long run, their values will lose which pisses them off.  At the same time, they're old and their timeline doesn't extend more than 10-15 years so they don't care about long term trends.

Their backs are against the wall and they have nothing left to lose since they have already lost.  They are just going to fight by any means necessary and maybe God will see this and grant them a miracle.  Failing that, they can at least extend the timeline for another 10 years and live out their lives.  And failing that, then at least going scorched Earth means if you lose, you can at least take everyone down with you.

That's why they care so much about the Supreme Court.  It's why they cheat at elections.  It's why they want to limit legal immigration severely.  In a fair fight in a Democracy, they lose.  So, they're not going to fight fair.

Markalot

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  • Posts: 289
Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1430 on: November 14, 2018, 06:39:52 PM »

More and more blue seats.  Nice to see.  Now that the election is over you hear more and more republican polsters who believe it will be a long long time before the repubs get a majority again.  I don't think we know, the dems have a knack for screwing things up.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1431 on: November 14, 2018, 07:11:57 PM »

The Dems have to figure out the Pelosi issue.  She has some serious skills, but does not always use them for the good of the Party.  The optimal situation is she steps dien but serves as a consigliere to the new Speaker.  That has a zero percent chance of happenong.

The Democrats have not really been screwing things up.  They ran about as good a midterm as could be expected, in part due to Pelosi and her using her powers for good (because she wants to be Speaker).

The whole notion of what the Dems need to do is absurd.   They shouldn't have to do anything.  The GOP is filled with complete morons, and pretty much elected the worst people in there own party.  You can't blame anything on the Democrats when they are asked to run the perfect campaign but the GOP just throws Trump out there. 

I mean, it is what it is and I get your point.  The election next term looks close so the Dems will have to strategize to win.  They shouldn't have to, but whatever.  Still gonna be the fault of the voting public and not the Dems. 

I honestly hope they stop giving a shit about 2020 and just govern.  If the people are too stupid to see past Trump, well what can you do?  Country isn't worth saving at that point. I'm not going to run a left wing Trump alike. Time to stop pandering to idiots.  It's bad for the country plysits doubtful you can beat Trump at his own game.

They took a bunch of state seats and some voting changes got passed.  Census and redistricting will help.  It will be a long road because of how badly things are messed up, but you have to have the grassroots infrastructure in place first.
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