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Author Topic: Random Political Musings  (Read 58446 times)

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Dan

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1425 on: November 07, 2018, 04:57:32 PM »

Illinois is probably purple now.  People are leaving Illinois in droves.  Really, people are leaving most big cities because it's too expensive.  Those people are moving to smaller places where it's a little more affordable.  Cincy is probably one of them. 

But that's basically why Richmond and the other Southern cities are seeing a boom. 

I'm not sure about this.

Caveat: I'm not sure I'm up to date, either, and feel a little like a doctor in his 60s who's still practicing medicine the way he did when he got out of med school and hasn't been updated on the latest breakthroughs...

Last I heard it wasn't that people were moving out of the big cities an into smaller cities, it was that people were moving from suburbs to cities and from rural to urban (of any size, although big cities got the most). This explains everything you've mentioned, while not stating that big cities are in decline. They are pricey, though....and don't I know it.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1426 on: November 07, 2018, 06:13:40 PM »

The big cities are not in decline.  Kind of the opposite, I think.

Itís more a matter of scale. The big cities were so big and dense, they were almost sort of bound to regress.  As the demand for city life increases, things get expensive.  When things get expensive, areas get gentrified and the slum housing where a family of four used to live in 900 square feet becomes a luxury penthouse for an uber rich couple.  So, you just lost half your population in that space.  The big cities were unhealthily dense in some areas.

I think New Yorkers donít notice this, because they donít often go to bad parts of town.  In their minds the city might even seem to be expanding because there is now a fancy store or condo where there used to be ďnothing.Ē

The other way it scales is proportion of population.  If a factory that employs 200 people in a small town closes, itís all over for that town.  Itís totally fucked forever.  Whereas if you evicted 200 people from an apartment in NYC, it may not even make the local news.

If NYC lost .1% of its population, would they even notice?  But that would constitute a massive 4% increase to Richmond.  So it doesnít take much of an outflow from NY, LA or CHI to tilt the demographics of the places where those people land.

And they appear to be going to the South.  That trend has been going on for awhile.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1427 on: November 07, 2018, 07:33:36 PM »

I grew up in the Chicago burbs and recently visited so I was researching how the local economy was doing, my old neighborhood, etc.  It's growing, big time, and commuter rail traffic is also growing rapidly, and making a profit.  Chicago has always been spread out because of the commuter rail lines.

The election ran as expected.  The economy is good and most people vote with their wallet.  We've argued this in the past ... is someone racist because they don't give a shit when times are good?  I don't have an answer, I can only say that it's not surprising.  The current economy is good so healthcare trickled to the top of the list because that's that's what can ruin people financially.  Obamacare is here to stay, which in many ways is a really good thing.  Someday it will be fixed to work better. 
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Dan

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1428 on: November 08, 2018, 09:45:02 AM »

Fair points, all of them.

If NYC lost .1% of its population, would they even notice?  But that would constitute a massive 4% increase to Richmond.  So it doesnít take much of an outflow from NY, LA or CHI to tilt the demographics of the places where those people land.

And they appear to be going to the South.  That trend has been going on for awhile.

It's true. NYC's 2010 population was 8 million, and they expect it to be 8.5 million at the next census. That's 500,000 people, which is a lot of things and a lot of ways to look at statistics. For NYC, it's over 6% growth which sounds manageable but will require some work.

But in this case...if (fill in the blank....any city that doesn't have 4 professional sports teams) were to grow by 500,000 people it'd be a monumental shift in everything. Traffic, schools, housing, box retail, small retail, etc. Imagine the city you live in, dear Randomvillain, and then add 500,000 people to it in 10 years. What would it look like? Where would the issues be?

So that's fun. But back on topic - the people are moving to cities and if the Republican vs Democrat paradigm remains rural vs urban, respectively, then trends say the future is blue. That is, until the Dems screw it up.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1429 on: November 08, 2018, 11:05:38 AM »

But 6% in ten years is really not that much compared to the overall US population growth. 

Essentially, old people are moving out of NYC.  Primarily to the South and Florida.  Which we can consider that "dying" in this population scenario.  Grim, but let's face that's what's going on.  They're moving to Florida to die there.  But the birth rate in US is faster than the death rate so NYC-- like the US-- is still growing.  It's just growing at a relatively slower rate than other places.

Compare that to Richmond, where we have grown 12% already from 2010-2018.  Which again-- scale.  12% growth in Richmond is way less people than 6% in NYC.  So the actual impacts here rather subtle to New Yorkers but massive to Richmond.  But still, you can see the relative strengthening of the South vs NYC.  We're growing at twice the national rate, NY is just sort of keeping up.

And yes, the GOP is absolutely fucked.  That's why they are behaving the way they are.  They know that in the long run, their values will lose which pisses them off.  At the same time, they're old and their timeline doesn't extend more than 10-15 years so they don't care about long term trends.

Their backs are against the wall and they have nothing left to lose since they have already lost.  They are just going to fight by any means necessary and maybe God will see this and grant them a miracle.  Failing that, they can at least extend the timeline for another 10 years and live out their lives.  And failing that, then at least going scorched Earth means if you lose, you can at least take everyone down with you.

That's why they care so much about the Supreme Court.  It's why they cheat at elections.  It's why they want to limit legal immigration severely.  In a fair fight in a Democracy, they lose.  So, they're not going to fight fair.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1430 on: November 14, 2018, 06:39:52 PM »

More and more blue seats.  Nice to see.  Now that the election is over you hear more and more republican polsters who believe it will be a long long time before the repubs get a majority again.  I don't think we know, the dems have a knack for screwing things up.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1431 on: November 14, 2018, 07:11:57 PM »

The Dems have to figure out the Pelosi issue.  She has some serious skills, but does not always use them for the good of the Party.  The optimal situation is she steps dien but serves as a consigliere to the new Speaker.  That has a zero percent chance of happenong.

The Democrats have not really been screwing things up.  They ran about as good a midterm as could be expected, in part due to Pelosi and her using her powers for good (because she wants to be Speaker).

The whole notion of what the Dems need to do is absurd.   They shouldn't have to do anything.  The GOP is filled with complete morons, and pretty much elected the worst people in there own party.  You can't blame anything on the Democrats when they are asked to run the perfect campaign but the GOP just throws Trump out there. 

I mean, it is what it is and I get your point.  The election next term looks close so the Dems will have to strategize to win.  They shouldn't have to, but whatever.  Still gonna be the fault of the voting public and not the Dems. 

I honestly hope they stop giving a shit about 2020 and just govern.  If the people are too stupid to see past Trump, well what can you do?  Country isn't worth saving at that point. I'm not going to run a left wing Trump alike. Time to stop pandering to idiots.  It's bad for the country plysits doubtful you can beat Trump at his own game.

They took a bunch of state seats and some voting changes got passed.  Census and redistricting will help.  It will be a long road because of how badly things are messed up, but you have to have the grassroots infrastructure in place first.

daytime drinking

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1432 on: November 24, 2018, 02:48:08 PM »

not sure if the statute of limitations has expired, but hey zafer.  talking about trump's preemptive bailout to farmer's you said the world doesn't need america to help feed the world.  perhaps i need to be more subtle when i search on the internet, but i haven't come across your conclusions
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1433 on: November 26, 2018, 01:57:08 PM »

It's too late, John Kasich.  If you run as a third party candidate now, you're probably going to take more votes from Democrats than from Trump.

Trump's biggest vulnerability isn't his policies or espoused philosophy.  It's that he actually kind of sucks at being leader and/or implementing policy and it's kind of hard to attack him on it.  Because you can't be a moderate or liberal and say "Hey, check it out.  Have you noticed that despite the fiery talk Trump hasn't done all that much to forward the white cause?  Why don't you vote for someone like Bannon or King instead?"

The only way to split the Republican vote is for a more legit white supremacist to run.

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1434 on: November 26, 2018, 05:44:39 PM »

It's too late, John Kasich.
I hope it's not. He'll get my vote. Finally someone who has the guts to try and do something about the insane situation we find ourselves in. And who's to say that the two party system cannot be broken up? To admit differently is to in effect say that things cannot cahnge politically ever in this country. I don't think that's the case. So why not Kasich. At least he's trying.
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dirk

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1435 on: November 26, 2018, 07:00:17 PM »

It's too late, John Kasich.
I hope it's not. He'll get my vote. Finally someone who has the guts to try and do something about the insane situation we find ourselves in. And who's to say that the two party system cannot be broken up? To admit differently is to in effect say that things cannot change politically ever in this country. I don't think that's the case. So why not Kasich. At least he's trying.
Unfortunately, without a fundamental change to how we vote, the 2 party system will never change. The fact is, with the current voting system, voting for a 3rd party means you are more likely to end up with the choice you like the least because of vote splitting. If there are 3 people running, democrat, republican, and more liberal, the republican has a better chance of winning even if he is the least popular. Let's say the GOP gets 40% of the vote and the rest is split 30/30, people get their least favorite choice. Same thing with 39/21. That 60% would want the democrat over the republican in a straight 2 party race, but because of the split, the least favorite choice gets elected. The only way to change this is to change our winner takes all system to something more sane.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1436 on: November 26, 2018, 09:51:37 PM »

It's too late, John Kasich.
I hope it's not. He'll get my vote. Finally someone who has the guts to try and do something about the insane situation we find ourselves in. And who's to say that the two party system cannot be broken up? To admit differently is to in effect say that things cannot cahnge politically ever in this country. I don't think that's the case. So why not Kasich. At least he's trying.

You have got to be shitting me.  There are hundreds of people who have risked more and done more to stop Trump.  Every Democrat in Congress.  Every Democrat who ran for Congress.  The writers, editors and newspeople most major news outlets. All the people in the executive branch who got canned.

Nancy Pelosi has done more to stop Trump.  Joe Manchin.  Susan Collins, Jeff Flake, Tand Paul, and Ben Fucking Sasse have done more.  Hell, I think I have done more to resist Trump than Kasich has.  Whatís he been doing?  Schilling get-rich-quick marijuana stocks and popping up every two months to wring his hands and say oh what a shame?

This is not the fault of the two party system.  No one has shut Kasich out.  Did you forget that Kasich ran as a Republican for President?  At that point, the GOP establishment would have vastly preferred Kasich over Trump.  There was nothing to stop him from running as an independent after he lost.  He probably would have gotten more votes than McMillen, particularly in the MidWest.  And then we might not be in this situation at all.

The two party system didnít cause this.  The GOP and a bunch of Trump-voting conservatives did this.  Including those who kept supporting the party even as it was blatantly obvious post-Palin where this was going.  Shit, it was obvious in 2000.  You had fifteen years to vote third party and send a message to the GOP and the establishment at large. 

If the Democrats run someone too far left for you, and you feel like you have to vote Kasich for policy reasons, I get it.  But heís no courageous outsider and you are hardly striking a blow against the GOP or the two party system.  Youíre pretty much just enabling it, albeit that is not your intent.  If you think a two party system is bad, give Trump four more years and see how you like a one party system.

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1437 on: November 26, 2018, 11:55:32 PM »


If the Democrats run someone too far left for you, and you feel like you have to vote Kasich for policy reasons, I get it.  But heís no courageous outsider and you are hardly striking a blow against the GOP or the two party system.  Youíre pretty much just enabling it, albeit that is not your intent.  If you think a two party system is bad, give Trump four more years and see how you like a one party system.
I respect your opinion, as I always do. But I have to disagree.

Yes, Kasich is a courageous outsider in what once was the GOP, now the Trump Party.

Of course he is not an outsider. I am wanting him as as "establishment" moderate right-leaning candidate, which is how I feel.

Is that possible in the current political landscape? Probably not. But won't stop me from supporting him.




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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1438 on: November 27, 2018, 11:57:56 AM »

But of course it's possible to be a moderate conservative in today's political landscape.  It's not only possible, we just elected a butt load of them.  The majority of the seats that switched parties in the swing districts were taken by moderates who would probably have been considered conservative back in the day.  They're just not conservative or GOP now because conservatives have lost their minds.

Everyone with half a brain and a sense of decency should be renouncing the GOP and Trump.  I'll grant you Kasich is better than the rest of the Republicans, but why set the standard so low?  Resisting Trump is the bare minimum, not a mark of courage.  Kasich is still a Republican, still campaigned for DeWine while the two of them danced around the Trump issue. 

You talk about not putting party over country, but you're the one stuck on these old party affiliations and labels.  It's easily possible to be a moderate today, in fact that was the most advantageous political place to be in the last election (although we'll see how long that lasts). 

It's just not possible to be a moderate Republican.  In fact, it's not even possible to be a hardcore right winger Republican who respects the constitution or doesn't hate foreigners with enough passion-- eg. Mia Love, Ben Sasse or Jeff Flake.  That's not a two party thing.  That's a "Republicans are giant dickheads" thing.

It's easy to renounce the Republican party.  You did it.  Markalot did it.  Millions of people have done it.  You know who hasn't?  Kasich. 

It's not courageous to be slightly less of a knob than the biggest knob in the world while doing the bare minimum to oppose him, after spending your entire political career knowing your party was filled with knobs and elected by knobs and doing nothing about it. 

I don't think Kasich is a bad person.  I think he is sincere about not liking Trump.  But he's about as welcome and useful in a 2020 election as Hillary Clinton.  It's over, go home.  If Kasich wants to do something about Trump, he can put his money and influence behind some younger, more electable, and believable candidates.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1439 on: November 27, 2018, 01:40:07 PM »

I'm not so sure it's still easy to be a moderate democrat. 

The two party system IS responsible for producing two horrible candidates for president.  Some might argue Hillary wasn't horrible, sure, I voted for her, but I think the premise is sound.  The benefit of the two party system is that we don't end up with horribly unpopular presidents (LOL).  If you had a three or four way race then the winner usually represents a clear minority of the people voting for him.  I voted for Perot in 1992, for example, and luckily he didn't win.  Clinton won with a minority of the vote. 

I like third parties, but I'm not sold on the travesty of a two party system.
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