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Author Topic: Random Political Musings  (Read 97569 times)

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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1590 on: June 17, 2019, 01:19:42 PM »

McCarthy is saying he would pass a bill because knows he will never have to worry about it.  The Democrats in the House can introduce a bill and pass it regardless of what he thinks, and the Senate will kill it, regardless of what Democrats think.

What it amounts to is a defense of Trump.  Basically "Trump did nothing wrong and he didn't say anything wrong in that interview, and he would never do anything wrong.  And you can trust me because I would totally vote for this hypothetical bill that will never happen.  So I'm totally not biased.  Not at all.  I vote with Trump 98.4% of the time, because that's just how honest and good and smart he is!" 

Enlisted military are mostly Trump's base.  They're fully in the cult.  They either won't find out about Warner's bill because they won't talk about it on the right wing sights, or if they find out about it they will refuse to believe it, and if they believe it, they won't care because they elected Trump to break the rules.

I mean, I don't know.  There's not a whole lot to be gleaned by "Why would Trump/GOP take this obviously corrupt and stupid stance that hurts their own voters?"  It's pretty hard to explain why anyone still sticks with Trump, regardless of political beliefs.  Even if I were crazy right wing, I'd be on Ann Coulter's side pointing out that Trump talks a big game but really hasn't been all that effective at doing much.

If you were concerned with foreign influence the meeting Trump had with Putin plus the number of his close advisors during the campaign who are going to jail should have made you already abandoned him.  If you have stuck with Trump this whole time, its kind of hard to see why you would change your mind now when you've already gone all in and doubled down like 300 times.

I think that all these things do chip away at the support or at least the enthusiasm.  And Trump did not win by a whole lot, so it wouldn't take much.  OTOH, his approval rating just doesn't move from the 41-43% range.  It's remarkable how consistent it is.  So things which should cost him 10 points cost him .001 points.  It takes a lot of .001's to add up to enough change to make even a small difference.

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1591 on: June 29, 2019, 07:48:09 PM »

Watching the debates I was thinking it's a good thing Marianne Williamson is such an idiot, because it makes the extreme left less dangerous.  Then I remember thinking the same thing about Trump.

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1592 on: July 03, 2019, 12:31:45 PM »

The 4th of July in DC is going to be a massive shit show.  The whole thing is very poorly thought out and I just hope no one gets hurt.

Trump is being a huge dickhead as usual.  But really the problem is that a decent chunk of the population really believes that the most patriotic thing you can do on July 4th is pummel the un-American opposition.  I think it would have been bad even without Trump piling on multiple giant layers of stupidity.  As it is, I can't see how there isn't going to be a huge Antifa-Proud Boys fracas.

Kwyjibo

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1593 on: July 05, 2019, 10:25:20 AM »

I wasn't around the TV at all yesterday, but from what I can tell his military parade didn't get a lot of attention.  Has the media finally learned not to give him the attention he wants so badly? 

Of course, there's the other side of that coin.  His gaffe about airports is getting lots and lots of attention.
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Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1594 on: July 07, 2019, 09:38:42 AM »

The reporting about the gaffe is the exact kind of thing that will assure he gets re-elected.   The majority of people aren't paying attention yet, and those that do as election time nears are going to side with Trump if they experience dumb shit gotcha journalism that has no point other than to try and make Trump look like an idiot.  He said airports during the revolutionary war.  What an idiot, I'm voting for Warren!

Yea, no.   

The media isn't running for office though, so it's on the dems to make sure they can get a good message across and distract some of the media from this bullshit reporting that is actually helping Trump and his narrative.   

If the economy continues to be good I don't see how any dem other than Biden has a shot. 
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1595 on: July 08, 2019, 01:17:11 AM »

Wrong, across the board.

Kwyjibo

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1596 on: July 08, 2019, 09:30:27 AM »

I'm still rather pleased with the media.  Four days later and I still have not seen so much as a still photo of his parade, nor heard so much as a sentence about it uttered in any media.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1597 on: July 08, 2019, 11:02:04 AM »

The media covered it about the right amount, IMO. 

The whole airports thing was more of a social media/meme thing.  Also, it's not the media's job to try and stop Trump from getting re-elected so the whole idea of them doing or not doing something based on political fallout is wrong.

Also, also, if the media criticizing a politician over something small actually turned people off then Fox News would not exist and Trump never would have won the election.  And Trump himself does it way more than the media.  Just about every tweet from the dude contains a silly, gratuitous insult or fake, inconsequential criticism that is also a lie.

Like, how many people are like "Gee, I don't know about Trump.  These trade deficits don't seem like such a great idea, some of the shit he's trying to do is very authoritarian and unconstitutional, and he doesn't really seem to know or care about what he's doing.  oh snap.  The media just picked on him for making a gaffe.  Guess I'll vote for Trump now."

If Trump gets re-elected, it's going to be because there are way too many racist dumbasses in the country.  Even if Trump doesn't get re-elected it's obvious there are way too many racist dumbasses in the country.

The left is too often blinded by the basic facts as well.  Yes it is very irritating and shocking how Breitbart, OAN, etc. just run lies constantly.  And that's not even getting into the Qanon and Alex Jones stuff.  But the lies are pretty blatant, and it takes very effort to see through them.  The problem is people either refuse to question them, or they really don't care.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1598 on: July 08, 2019, 12:53:32 PM »

Wrong across the board, and I think you know it, but the narrative sounds better to you.

The airport gaffe was on every site I visit, news sites.  I don't get my news from facebook or twitter.  What I'm saying IS important because if people think the media is being unfair, and if the media floods the airwaves with these kinds of stories, then people will tune out.     By media I don't mean a single outlet that is almost exclusively Trump supporters but the remainder of the media.  You've seen the spread?



The target is not conservatives or liberals, those votes are set, it's moderates.  Even among the republican party those who don't see themselves as conservative don't watch Fox.

IF EVERYTHING IS AN OUTRAGE then nothing is an outrage.  Call it outrage fatigue.   The Trump approval rating just went UP to the highest level of his presidency.  You want to say if Trump gets re-elected it's because the majority of Americans are racist.  It's the same old shit I was hearing when W was running for a second term.  I made a similar argument and I think at the time it was Du who called me racist and every other name in the book because he was too small to actually think about what the factors might be when someone chooses a president.  Obviously if they don't consider race then they are racist. 

The target of any presidential election is the folks who tune in during the final stretch to see what each candidate has to offer.  They look at their own situation and if it's good and they don't hear a reasonable argument for making it better then the incumbent wins. 

Quote
"Voters were not feeling a level of sufficient pain to reject the incumbent," Mellman said. "As we got closer to Election Day, there was a somewhat more positive feeling in the country, and that helped the incumbent."

That was for Bush, who also had 9/11 support at the time, so it's not a clean comparison. 

So what do we have now?  If Trump tanks the economy he loses, I think that's a given, but if the economy continues to perform as it is now then what is the narrative during the final days before the election?

Trump is an idiot who thinks we had planes during the revolutionary war.  I will ......  what?  And who will it be?  I believe Biden has the best chance to win, by far, and while he's apologizing I think he still has the best chance.   I believe the majority of liberals and conservatives believe that if you compromise with the other side you are the worst scum and need to be called out for it.  That is EXACTLY what Trump needs to win.  If it's a race to the bottom he wins every time.  Biden's point was we got to where we are, or were, by compromising with people we has extreme disagreements with.  If he was a republican saying that he would have been called a racist.  Booker wanted an apology,  lol,  for what?   

The dems have this really nasty habit of losing winnable elections, it's happening again. 


« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 12:59:49 PM by Markalot »
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1599 on: July 08, 2019, 02:22:42 PM »

Who are these people that think the media is unfair to Trump and will vote for him solely for that reason despite everything else they know?  They don't exist. 

No one is actually outraged by Trump's airport gaffe unless they were already outraged by Trump or the media.
The actual Mueller report didn't sway the opinion polls at all.  If there was ever going to be a backlash against supposed "media witch hunts" or support for the media against Trump, it would have happened right there. 

No one gives a shit about moderate conservatives.  None of the Obama/Trump blue collar/rural/whatever voters are moderates.  If they were, they would have voted for Clinton over Trump.  But they liked Trump more.  And their second choice was Bernie.The left has enough problems just trying to fend off the dirtbag left/antifa/Bernie Bros.  If they can unite the left and get them to the polls then they win.  If they can't, then they lose.  It's that simple.

The low-info voter types like Biden, not because he's moderate, but because he's an old white man who has done a good job of portraying himself so far as blue collar/salt-of-the-Earth guy.  When he says he wants to kick Trump's ass, they're like "Yeah, he's speaking my language.  No PC-speak."  I think that image is going to fall apart pretty fast, but nonetheless he's done a good job so far.

There is no outrage.  The only people trying to make there be an outrage are the National Review and Washington Examiner types.  Because they don't want to vote left, and they can't vote for Trump and they want a way to dodge responsibility for being stuck between two evils.  So you get this bizarre "Trump sucks, but he only won because the media/government forced/bamboozled voters logic." 

The argument that Trump has the right ideas and is generally on the right track but should stop being so uncouth about it is transparently stupid.  No one is buying it.  And that's why the "moderate right" has no influence. 

If we took a poll of lukewarmish Trump supporters who are historically Republican, what do you think would be the most popular response.  "I have reservations about Trump but no way am I voting for evil Socialists/extreme left who want open borders" or "I have reservations about Trump but I'm going to vote for him because the media made too big a deal about a speech gaffe?"

It's going to be the first option, right?  Like euro60 has pretty much said that's what might cost the left his vote.  Many of the Dems are too far left for him to support.  I think probably the same thing is true for you.  It's true to a lesser extent even for me, and I'm moderate left.  None of us are actually making our decision because of how the press treats Trump.  So who is manufacturing outrage?  It's not the press. It's you.  You're creating a bogus threat that doesn't exist so you can blame someone else besides conservatives if Trump wins again. 

The question really is, can we get blue collar populist-type voters or legit semi-moderate conservatives like you and euro60 to vote for someone who is a bit of a chameleon like Kamala Harris?  And I think the answer to that hinges on how racist middle America is and/or how much Kamala Harris can assure you that the US is not going to go crazy left is she's elected.

Seriously dude.  We keep having this same conversation.  The moderate right is toast.  Dead.  Finis.  That is why they are all retiring in droves, or they are losing/have lost their seats and not a single one of them has really ever done a thing about Trump.  What do you think all that RINO/cuck shit was about in 2016?  They deliberately expunged all the moderates from the party.  So if you were moderate right in the past, you have either gone all in at this point, or you are voting Democrat.

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1600 on: July 08, 2019, 02:58:27 PM »

I think you're wrong. 

I don't disagree on who needs to vote, but they need to be encouraged to vote.  At some point they are going to seek information on who is running and who to vote for.  Where are they going to get the information and what is the information telling them?  I think it's that simple.   If the dems have an awesome candidate that has real ideas and people believe this person can get things done and make their lives better then 9 times out of 10 they win.  I think we're on the same page there, so how can that message be lost? 

I believe that there are some (many?) on the dem side who believe bombarding the information pipeline with anti-Trump stories is the way to assure victory.  I think they're dangerously wrong.  If this election is determined by who votes more than anything else then how do you motivate people to vote?

Top story, upper left, WP online, Trump calls his Wharton attendance ‘genius stuff.’ An admissions officer says otherwise.

CNN top story at the moment is some dem I never heard of is dropping out and urging Biden to pass the torch.   Top right is NY governor signs law that would allow Congress to get Trump's state taxes.   

NBC is very similar.   

But don't focus on that, I know what you mean by manufactured outrage, focus on the pipeline.  Where will these people we want to show up get their information and why will they vote?  If the pipeline is full of Trump outrage will that motivate them?
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 02:59:58 PM by Markalot »
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1601 on: July 08, 2019, 04:53:57 PM »

So these people, who we are pretending are objective, are going to go out to Fox, Breitbart, OAN, Alex Jones, Trump's own tweets, etc. and see the way more ridiculous lies and exaggerations on those sites, decide that they're not bothered, but will vote for Trump because CNN said something about Trump and airports?

Or they are going to go to CNN, see all the insane shit that Trump has done, but go "Nah, they harshed on him too much on the airport thing so fuck it, I'm going to ignore all that other stuff and just focus on this one thing."

Whether you get "outraged" is up to you.  And in fact, no one is "outraged" by this who previously wasn't except for a pretend segment of the population.  Why are these people not "outraged" by Trump's petty lies?  Do they think that Joe Biden is actually sleepy? or that it's relevant the NYT is "failing?" 

You're asking the media and the Dems to pitch a perfect game against Trump. Which one, is not actually their job.  And two, is impossible.  And three should not be required in the first place because it is hard to be farther from perfect than Trump and the right wing media.

It's not the media's job to filter the news for you and steer people towards voting against Trump.  They should be reporting on everything that Trump does.  And if Trump says something stupid every day, then that means that they will report on the stupid shit Trump says every day.

When we last had this conversation, you were like "well, why doesn't someone introduce a bill to stop Trump from doing stuff?"  And I pointed out to you that in fact they had tried this.  And not only had that the bill been widely reported on, so was McConnell's response, which was "No fucking way will I ever even allow a vote on anything from the Democrats attempting to check Trump."

So the media is covering all the stuff you want covered.  You're the one who isn't seeing it.  And it's because two decades of listening to the shit the right wing has thrown at you has biased you.  You're looking for ways to be pissed off at the media.  And if you can't find a legit logical reason to be pissed off, you'll manufacture some outrage based on the media impacting some mythical group of people.  "Well, this isn't really a big deal to me, and it shouldn't be a big deal to anyone... but *SOMEONE* will make this a big deal!  Fuck the media."

If someone wants to make a big deal out of nothing, that's their fault.  And right now that's you.  Actually, you're worse.  You're trying to make a big deal out of some pretend group making a big deal out of nothing. 

Markalot

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1602 on: July 08, 2019, 07:21:52 PM »

Good story,

so how are we going to motivate the people we want to vote for someone-besides-Trump?  The ones that stayed home last time?  How are we going to motivate the people who voted for Obama AND Trump?

I use the term we loosely, I doubt you or I will do much motivating.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1603 on: July 08, 2019, 10:37:31 PM »

Well again, itís not the mediaís job to win elections for liberals.

Second, Clinton won the popular vote.  She lost the electoral college.  Which means the first thing the Democrats have to do is to unite and lock in their base.  And that might be enough.  You saw what happened in 2018.  Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voter turnout increased by double digits. College turnout increased by 25% or something crazy like that.  Itís not that easy to unite the left theses days, though.  And thstís A problem and your first priority.

Third, the Obama-Trump voters are not moderates.  They are populists.  Which is why they like Trump but Sanders polled best among Democrats.  These guys are polar opposites.

Sanders and Trump were popular in large part BECAUSE they were assholes.  If you are a fringe candidate, as both of them were initially, itís generally not a great idea to insult the center.  But thatís exactly what they did.  If people were not going to vote for candidates who are seen as taking cheap shots at their opponents, how the fuck did Trump win?

The trick isnít refrain from taking cheap shots at Trump.  Itís too find the ones that stick and just keep hammering at them.  If you do it correctly, you can unite the dirtbag left and the Obama-Trump types. Basically the lowest denominators out there.

I wish it werenít like this, but it is.  Like I said before, the person who wind is not going to make me feel much better about things than you.  The problem is not the politicians, itís the deep cultural divide in this country and the aversion to thought.  Thatís a bigger problem that will take a long time to fix.  And Iím the opinion we wonít fix it, and this is the beginning of the end of our run as world leader.

euro60

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Re: Random Political Musings
« Reply #1604 on: July 09, 2019, 12:00:17 AM »

The problem is not the politicians, itís the deep cultural divide in this country and the aversion to thought.  Thatís a bigger problem that will take a long time to fix.  And Iím the opinion we wonít fix it, and this is the beginning of the end of our run as world leader.
I couldn't agree more. It will decades to play this out. But it is clear that the US is not going to be what this country was 20-30 years ago (when I arrived here), despite Trump's (and his desperate supporters) attempt to turn the clock back.

Thankfully I don't have to care anymore (being 58) and my retirement money in good hands (hopefully).

Only thing I can do is to show up and vote, which I will do, of course. My kids (32 an 29) understand this as well and they'll vote accordingly. The real question is: which Dem candidate will rise up?
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