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Author Topic: Cincinnati Reds 2016  (Read 7427 times)

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euro60

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Cincinnati Reds 2016
« on: March 29, 2016, 10:34:32 PM »

My Reds predictions:

Iglesias has a roller coaster season, but by the end of it ends up looking like a non-pyscho version of Cueto.  And still puts up solid numbers over all.  But then next year he gets hurt.

DeSclafini puts together a blah season that doesn't look great on the surface but improves slowly but steadily, emerging as a boring-but-good mid-rotation SP for next year, and the 3-4 years after that.

Reed pulls off a poor man's DeSclafini and turns into a backend starter.

Stephenson busts.  I don't know why.  He just seems like the kind of guy who will.

Finnegan doesn't make it as a starter but turns into an okay middle reliever.

Hamilton learns to hit.  Not well, but maybe like .260 with no walks and a crappy OBP.  Which with his speed and defense actually makes him a pretty good CF overall.

Winker turns into a "professional hitter" type.  Not at the superstar Votto level, but maybe like an Adam LaRoche.  Kind of guy who hits .275 with 25 HR every year.  This is also what I predict will happen to Kyle Schwarber.

Erwin busts.

Peraza turns into a weak stick, but plays good 2B defense and can run.  So not a great player, but a perfectly serviceable #8 hitting mid-infielder.  But it doesn't happen this year.  He sucks this year.

Cingrani turns into one of those really annoying closers who will be lights out for a month, then get shelled and blow 4 saves in two weeks.  Which in the overall scheme of things is still not a bad closer, but one you never feel good about.  But that also doesn't happen this year.  He sucks this year, at least for 2/3 of the season before finally showing his potential late.

Hoover sucks.  Diaz sucks.  The whole bullpen sucks other than Cingrani who still is kind of sketchy and turns into the bane of the team for the next 4 years.

Mesoraco gets hurt, and keeps getting hurt, but manages to be very productive the few months each season where he's actually healthy.

Suarez puts up utility guy numbers.  Which is bad this year since he is starting, but maybe next year he will be a utility player and he'll be a decent one.

Duvall busts, but ends up being a semi-useful power bat off the bench.

Moscot turns into a swingman, who is bad but still good because he's a lot less bad than other options.  He gets 3-4 starts a year, the rest he is a long reliever/mop-up guy.  Puts up 4.75-5.00 ERA's.

Phillips puts together a year that is less good than last year, but still not bad overall.  He finally accepts a trade and the Reds get two good-not-great prospects for him.  One busts.  The other surprisingly turns into an all-star.

The Reds don't trade Votto, which is too bad because if you look at all my predictions, what you have is a solidly average  (but young and cheap) core overall that just needs a superstar to put them over the top.  The kind of superstar that a guy like Votto might get you if you traded him for an elite prospect.  But they don't trade him, so they end up playing .500 ball for the next three or four years.

I figured this should be a new (2016) thread
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Dan

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 10:12:57 AM »

Votto used to be that superstar - I assume he is no longer?
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euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2016, 11:30:08 AM »

Votto had a very nice year last year: in 158 games he had an MLB-leading 143 walks, a .314 batting average, 29 home runs, and 80 RBI. Not too shabby.

Wasn't he voted MLB come-back player of the year?

But that was still ways off his superstar years from the 2010-12 era. That will not happen again.

Votto is now 32, and certainly can be productive for a number of years. But his contract runs through the 2023 season, yes EIGHT MORE YEARS (with actually an option for 2024, so potentially NINE more years). No way any team is going to want to make a trade for this guy.

My expectations for the Reds are so low this year, that I'm hoping they'll pleasantly surprise us. But if they don't, I won't be offended.

In the allocation of the use of our firm's suite for client entertainment, I went for early dates (in May), as I figure the season will be pretty much over by Memorial Day weekend...
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2016, 01:01:35 PM »

Votto had a very nice year last year: in 158 games he had an MLB-leading 143 walks, a .314 batting average, 29 home runs, and 80 RBI. Not too shabby.

Wasn't he voted MLB come-back player of the year?

But that was still ways off his superstar years from the 2010-12 era. That will not happen again.

Votto is now 32, and certainly can be productive for a number of years. But his contract runs through the 2023 season, yes EIGHT MORE YEARS (with actually an option for 2024, so potentially NINE more years). No way any team is going to want to make a trade for this guy.

My expectations for the Reds are so low this year, that I'm hoping they'll pleasantly surprise us. But if they don't, I won't be offended.

In the allocation of the use of our firm's suite for client entertainment, I went for early dates (in May), as I figure the season will be pretty much over by Memorial Day weekend...

you don't think those were joey votto superstar numbers?  it was his best year ever if yer into sabermetrics.  which i'm not, but he was fucking stellar last year
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Dan

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2016, 01:21:35 PM »

Quote from: euro60 link=topic=106746.msg5148
Votto had a very nice year last year: in 158 games he had an MLB-leading 143 walks, a .314 batting average, 29 home runs, and 80 RBI. Not too shabby.

Holy crap those are amazing numbers. If you offered me a team of those numbers we'd win championships every year.

(I understand about the contract length...that's a tough one)
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2016, 02:12:24 PM »

No way any team is going to want to make a trade for this guy.

Yes, they would. Because Votto is still pretty awesome.  The Diamondbacks just paid $225 for Greinke, and he's the same age as Votto plus he's a pitcher.

I think the Reds could possibly get someone just to take his contract.  If they are willing to eat contract money, they could get some elite prospects, but not sure it's worth it.

The problem is that the club worries about fans if they "give away" Votto for nothing.  Even worse, Votto may not want to leave in which case they will be seen as having pushed out an MVP player who is still really good and loves the Reds.

The reality is that at this point in time, roughly $200m in the pocket is more useful to the Reds than paying Joey Votto to screw up their draft picks.

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2016, 02:39:03 PM »

No way any team is going to want to make a trade for this guy.

Yes, they would. Because Votto is still pretty awesome.  The Diamondbacks just paid $225 for Greinke, and he's the same age as Votto plus he's a pitcher.

I think the Reds could possibly get someone just to take his contract.  If they are willing to eat contract money, they could get some elite prospects, but not sure it's worth it.

The problem is that the club worries about fans if they "give away" Votto for nothing.  Even worse, Votto may not want to leave in which case they will be seen as having pushed out an MVP player who is still really good and loves the Reds.

The reality is that at this point in time, roughly $200m in the pocket is more useful to the Reds than paying Joey Votto to screw up their draft picks.

it seems to me like we got a crappy beta version of the cardinals.  when the cardinals rebuild, they still make the playoffs.  when we rebuild (though, is the first actual rebuild in over 30 years?) we set the program back a decade
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euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2016, 03:21:42 PM »

Yes, they would. Because Votto is still pretty awesome.  The Diamondbacks just paid $225 for Greinke, and he's the same age as Votto plus he's a pitcher.

Votto may not want to leave in which case they will be seen as having pushed out an MVP player who is still really good and loves the Reds.

That's comparing apples (pitchers) to oranges (batters)...

I think they can move him without his consent... And I think that 2016 is the last year that can happen, since after 2016, Votto will be a "10 and 5" player.

Bottom line: if the Reds had gotten any feelers to trade Votto for a decent prospect, I think they would've done it, and still think they would do it. But what club wants to take on close to $200 mill in payroll. And I don't see the Reds eating/paying tens of millions to make that happen.

Oh well, at least I'll get more years of good use from my Votto jersey! 
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2016, 03:57:20 PM »

Votto has a full no-trade clause in his contract, I think that's the main reason he hasn't been moved.



euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2016, 04:33:27 PM »

Votto has a full no-trade clause in his contract, I think that's the main reason he hasn't been moved.
I didn't know that. In that case, the whole thing is moot. Votto likes it here, and it's highly doubtful he'll ever agree to a trade, even to Toronto.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

trixi

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2016, 06:46:47 PM »

Give him away!   :pirate:
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euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2016, 10:38:54 PM »

Give him away!   :pirate:
you mean... to you? He's still a bachelor....

It reminds me of an episode a few years back when a young girl, maybe 7 or 8, was the announcer for the next batter up, and she announced him... "Coming up for the Reds... Joey Hotto!"... the entire stadium exploded with laughter, and even Votto himself was shown on the big screen laughing. Priceless.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Dan

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2016, 10:29:58 AM »

That. Is. Adorable.
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euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2016, 02:41:19 PM »

And the most important Reds Opening Day-related news is surely this: Taste of Belgium will have a float in the Findlay Market Opening Day Parade!

I asked if they were going to toss waffles into the crowd. Sadly, they are not  ;)
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2016
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2016, 03:47:32 PM »

i'm excited to see these youngsters.  apparently the brewers have been doing rebuilding right.  should be fun next 10 years.  it's funny that votto might be around longer than some of these rooks.  still excited
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