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Author Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections  (Read 6418 times)

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Markalot

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  • Posts: 360
2018 Midterm Elections
« on: October 23, 2017, 03:47:30 PM »

A long way to go but I am hoping this ends up being a big story.

Just yesterday Politico posted an article bemoaning how the DNC (national committee) was short on cash.  Today a much different story:

Democrats’ early money haul stuns GOP
A historic number of well-funded candidates have flooded Republican House districts ahead of 2018.


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/23/2018-fundraising-democrats-house-races-244044

Hopefully this is the first real sign that the dems can mount a decent offense (not defense).  It scares me because I despise a lot of Democratic positions but hell, anything is better than what we have now.  I see no short term hope for the Republican party since anyone primaried will probably be supported by Bannon.   The R's are in a bad bad place and need to clean house, literally. 

Unfortunately I'm usually wrong.   
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Kwyjibo

  • Bringing Grumpy Back
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2017, 04:40:20 PM »

Given my track record with the last election (he won't make it to the first debate, he won't win the primary, he'll never get elected) I think I need to keep my predictions to myself.
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dirk

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2017, 05:34:26 PM »

I still don't see any way the Dems can take back the house. The districts are so gerrymandered at this point I just don't see how they can flip enough to take back control. I think they might be able to take the Senate back, but even that will be a hard push since most of the seats up for election are democratic seats. I think the house will be closer, but I am not holding out hope for the dems to regain control.
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euro60

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2017, 10:51:58 PM »

I still don't see any way the Dems can take back the house. The districts are so gerrymandered at this point I just don't see how they can flip enough to take back control. I think they might be able to take the Senate back, but even that will be a hard push since most of the seats up for election are democratic seats. I think the house will be closer, but I am not holding out hope for the dems to regain control.
I agree but I don't think it'll matter either way, as in: Trump will simply realign if the Dems win either or both of the House or Senate. As we all know, Trump is not a Republican (or Democrat). He is a one-many party, and the only thing that he is interested in is.... himself, and making himself look good and a "decisive leader". That much is clear after now 9 months of the Trump presidency. He will sign ANYTHING, regardless of substantive merit (or lack thereof), if it makes him look good. He has no clear policy on anything, and instead waits to find a moment to claim credit if something goes right, or blame everyone else if something goes wrong.

I think/hope we can manage through these next 3 years. The REAL moment of truth will come in the 2020 presidential elections. Does America want to continue with this clown? I hope not, but I wouldn't rule it out. And if somehow this pompous ass gets re-elected, what will that tell you of the state of affairs in this country?

This is a long way of my saying that I think the impact of the mid-terms elections is minimal, regardless of the outcome. The real telling moment will be in 2020.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

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Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2017, 03:47:14 PM »

It is true that Trump has few convictions or even any understanding of policy.

But what you are missing is why voters voted for him, and why his core is still unshaken despite the fact that he's complete nincompoop in every way.  Why do they let him claim victory when he didn't do shit, and blame everyone else when things go wrong?  Because they don't actually care about any of that stuff.

The one thing Trump cannot get away with is dropping the culture shit.  If he moves left on immigration at all, or goes against the Christian Right he's finished.  Immediately.  And he knows it.      You know that Clinton was right the entire time.  The GOP is pretty much 40% bigots and 60% people who don't give a shit about anything but blaming liberals.

This makes it impossible for Trump to pivot.  A pivot means you had a stance in the first place.  He can't re-align, because that would imply there was some kind of alignment to begin with.  Trump has never been aligned with the Congressional GOP.  He only aligns for himself.

Trump is a one issue guy.  So is his base.  Even if the rural people who Trump is screwing over totally right now get tired of him, they won't vote Democratic.  They'll just vote for another far-right social conservative who is a bit more friendly to them.  Essentially they'll move EVEN FURTHER right.

These people have created communities that are so toxic and non-functional that everyone is moving far away from them.  But because of the stupidity of our electoral system, that actually gives them more power. 

euro60

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2017, 10:40:58 PM »

It all boils down to this IMHO: in 2020, someone other than Trump running for President is going to ask all those Trump supporters: are you better off today than you were 4 years ago, despite all of the promises Trump made? If it turns out that, yes, they feel better off, then Trump may win re-election. But we have 3 years to go to that, and if it turns out that many of them see no improvement, they may be turned off by the Trump clown show too.....
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2017, 12:53:01 AM »

The problem is not Trump.  I do not care if he wins or loses in four years.  It also does not matter to me if Trump voters think they are better off in 4 years.  I hope  they are way worse off in four years because they deserve to be.  Too bad they will take a decent chunk of the country down with them.

The main reason Trump will lose support is because as you said, he has no principles.  He’s not fighting hard enough for bigotry.  So in 4 years, if people decide that they are not better off and vote for a bigger lawful evil jerk, what good does it do?

Even if they vote for a more centrist President, it still does not change the basic nature of their stupidity.  In fact, the same people who voted for Trump are likely to turn to Sanders unless Trump gets primaried.  How stupid do you have to be to do not understand those two are opposites?

I think there are plenty of people in AZ who—even if they won’t admit it— realize there is some merit to what Flake said about Trump.  Then they will go to the polls and happily pull the lever for Kelli Ward.  They don’t learn.  They didn’t learn from Palin, or from Bachmann, or from Cruz.  It just made them even more convinced that the problem was government and liberals, etc. and not their own dumb asses for voting for these idiots.

They keep doing all these interviews with supposedly regretful voters in Trump states.  They are all “Yeah, you know he really screwed me bad on healthcare.  And he hasn’t done much about the jobs he promised.  He seems really unhinged and keeps tweeting and lying.  It’s all very disappointing.  Why if he doesn’t do something about immigrants and this whole liberal culture, I might not vote for him next time.”  Fuck them.  They are idiots and horrible people.  I don’t care who they vote for or why.

daytime drinking

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2017, 12:22:02 PM »

I still don't see any way the Dems can take back the house. The districts are so gerrymandered at this point I just don't see how they can flip enough to take back control. I think they might be able to take the Senate back, but even that will be a hard push since most of the seats up for election are democratic seats. I think the house will be closer, but I am not holding out hope for the dems to regain control.
I agree but I don't think it'll matter either way, as in: Trump will simply realign if the Dems win either or both of the House or Senate. As we all know, Trump is not a Republican (or Democrat). He is a one-many party, and the only thing that he is interested in is.... himself, and making himself look good and a "decisive leader". That much is clear after now 9 months of the Trump presidency. He will sign ANYTHING, regardless of substantive merit (or lack thereof), if it makes him look good. He has no clear policy on anything, and instead waits to find a moment to claim credit if something goes right, or blame everyone else if something goes wrong.

I think/hope we can manage through these next 3 years. The REAL moment of truth will come in the 2020 presidential elections. Does America want to continue with this clown? I hope not, but I wouldn't rule it out. And if somehow this pompous ass gets re-elected, what will that tell you of the state of affairs in this country?

This is a long way of my saying that I think the impact of the mid-terms elections is minimal, regardless of the outcome. The real telling moment will be in 2020.

i've never understood the bolded.  how can you measure that?  i'm sure you'll say that that's just your (euro60) opinion and everyone is entitled to an opinion.    do you really think that he thinks a majority of what he says is gonna be a smashing success?  i don't think he's delusional into believing america adores him.  one of his campaign mantras was; if the world is against me, it wouldn't be fair otherwise.  or something like that.  how fucking sweet is that?  straight outta eastwood.  and people say the man isn't sincere, that's not true.  he's sincere in making the world aghast.  quite revolutionary of him
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euro60

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2017, 01:15:14 AM »

i don't think he's delusional into believing america adores him.
actually I do believe Trump is delusional, on so many levels <sigh>
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

daytime drinking

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2017, 10:23:29 AM »

this reminds me of the scene in the caine mutiny court martial.  the lawyer cross examines the defendant and asks him if he had any clinical background to render the opinion that their commanding officer was in fact, quite bonkers.  of course he hadn't.  do you? 
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2017, 10:56:10 AM »

this reminds me of the scene in the caine mutiny court martial.  the lawyer cross examines the defendant and asks him if he had any clinical background to render the opinion that their commanding officer was in fact, quite bonkers.  of course he hadn't.  do you?

Why is this even an argument?  Trump is immensely unpopular and always has been.  His approval rating is in the tank and has been more-or-less the entire time he's been President.  He ran against a strongly disliked candidate, and still lost the popular vote.

Trump has let's say 30% of the country who are diehard devotees.  And probably 45% of the country that hates him just as much.  Those numbers at this point seem to be set in stone.  It will take something pretty big for either side to change their mind.  Even the remaining 25% are mostly not enamored of Trump.  They dislike him, it's just that they might vote for him anyway.

It's not like Trump is even trying to be that popular.  His biggest appeal for the 30% of the country that loves him is that the other 45% hate him. 

daytime drinking

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2017, 11:44:49 AM »

but euro started it! 
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foolsgold

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2017, 02:06:59 PM »

Webster's dad was indicted and plead guilty.  Ma'am must be devastated.
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Butter

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2017, 02:10:06 PM »

Webster's dad was indicted and plead guilty.  Ma'am must be devastated.

This took me a minute, but damn it was worth it.
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Markalot

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2017, 04:55:29 PM »

The last few posts, and I hope no one takes this personal, are an example of why Trump won.

He's not delusional, he's a crooked real estate developer, egotistical, and most likely a sociopath.

The real danger now is that the dems won't be able to mount an offense and go what Politico describes as full McGovern with a pick like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in 2020.  Defense doesn't win games.

In a somewhat related opinion ...

Personally I try to pay attention to all sides to make sure I'm not surprised when something the mainstream media says ends up not being true.  I have finally dropped Fox news from my sources because it's gone full tabloid, somehow worse than before.  Yes, I know a lot of you think it was full tabloid before but this is different.  It's large bold headlines are mostly political in nature now, similar to drudge or some of the UK tabloids also owned by the Murdochs.  No real surprise there.

I've picked up McClatchy and the Washington Examiner as sources that tend to lean right but are still considered mostly accurate. 

If you find you only pay attention to news outlets you agree with then you're doing it wrong.  :)
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