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Author Topic: 2018 Midterm Elections  (Read 10127 times)

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Jonathan

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #45 on: November 08, 2017, 06:53:56 PM »

ZK, what were the final numbers in the House of Delegates races?
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"I believe that in the long view of history, the British Empire will be remembered only for two things. The game of football, and the expression 'fuck off.'" - Sir Richard Turnbull

Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #46 on: November 08, 2017, 08:21:00 PM »

It is 49 Dem and 47 GOP right now, I believe. 

The last 4 spots are subject to recount, plus some provisional ballots to be counted.  Those 4 spots were won by Republicans.  So if they stand, it will be 51 GOP to 49 Dem.

But 1 spot is likely to go DEM, and the GOP will likely retain the other 3.  So we are most likely looking at a 50-50 split.

The Senate is 21-19 split in favor of GOP, but the Senate is mostly just normal conservative as opposed to the House where it was filled with crazies.



euro60

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #47 on: November 08, 2017, 10:35:13 PM »

The internal war within the Republican Party between the "establishment/regular" and the "far right/crazies" is just starting, and will continue to play out in the next year leading up to the Midterms and then towards 2020. It ain't going to be pretty, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

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Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #48 on: November 09, 2017, 08:00:45 AM »

Just starting?!?  Jesus Christ man, wake up.  It started ten years ago.  You already lost.

Dan

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #49 on: November 09, 2017, 03:10:17 PM »

Tea Party started it I assume?
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #50 on: November 09, 2017, 07:28:25 PM »

At least since then.  Probably even before the Tea Party.  I would argue that the 2000 new revolution and subsequent ridiculous gerrymandering was what really laid the groundwork.

I donít know exactly when it started, but at the point is, Trump did not come out of nowhere.  It has been a slow motion train wreck for years.  Everyone saw it coming, but no one wanted to listen to supposed liberals.

The far right wing kept moving the GOP to the right, and the GOP capitulated.  At some point, the far right no longer needed the mainstream GOP to give them a veneer of respectability or their political clout.

They own the GOP.  Now they are throwing them out.  The idea of the mainstream GOP fighting back is hilarious.  They are surrendering left and right.  How many are not seeking election?  Like close to a dozen now? Itís over.

If you are a moderate conservative, you are wasting your time trying to salvage the party.  Your time is better spent trying to keep Democrats from moving too far left than convincing Republicans to move back to Center.  It might even be best to register as a Democrat.

How is Trumpís agenda really even different from the GOPís?  They just donít like him because he is kind of an idiot and also because he makes them look bad by actually demanding them to do the asshole things they promised but thought they would not have to deliver on.  If Pence were President, the agenda would be the same but you wouldnít hear a peep from Republicans.

The VA elections show how you can beat the far right.  And in a way that is palatable to conservatives.  The people that won were fairly moderate.  None of them made a big deal out of their gender/minority status.  They simply pointed out that the GOP was filled with loonies and they were normal people.

euro60

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #51 on: November 09, 2017, 10:46:28 PM »

ZK, your analysis is pretty much on point, and frankly outright depressing for a moderate Republican-leaning like myself. <sigh>

Like I said in an earlier post I'm nowthinking of myself more of an independent, and my vote is up for grabs.

As a complete aside, in the super-local city election earlier this week here in Blue Ash (suburb of Cincy), the Republican mayor (whom I know well) just barely got re-elected to city council (literally by a few dozens of votes). Two other Republican (and long time) city council members got bounced. This is unheard of as for ages (I've lived in this part of town for 20+ years) the Blue Ash city council was entirely Republican. Something is really brewing...
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Jonathan

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #52 on: November 10, 2017, 12:22:29 AM »

And the fact is, those people who got bounced probably aren't *really* Republican (at least, not Trumpist Republicans) but because they ran with that "R" by their name, good-bye!

I'll post my political scientist view later on tonight when I have the time.
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"I believe that in the long view of history, the British Empire will be remembered only for two things. The game of football, and the expression 'fuck off.'" - Sir Richard Turnbull

Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #53 on: November 10, 2017, 02:17:28 AM »

Eh, itís not that grim.

Even the Socialist isnít that bad.  Iím not saying you will like the dude, but he strikes me as more very liberal rather than a real Socialist or like, historically far left.  A bit kooky sure, but there are people in Congress that are probably as far left or farther than him.  He doesnít seem all that flame-thrower-y, just strongly committed.  Like how Bernie Sanders was before he ran for President. Sanders just voted left on everything but he was lower profile than say, Pelosi.  Itís good to have a couple of people like that around.  Just not more than that.

Most of the rest of them, I think you would be okay with.  Not that they are your optimal candidate, or that you would vote for them, but you wouldnít be too upset they won either.  Theyíll piss you off at times, but you wonít despair about what this country is coming to, or that they will cause lasting damage that couldnít be reversed.  Just your average, oh well the Dem won, too bad, that sets us back a little but weíll get Ďem next time situation.

As compared to even a moderate Republican at this point who even if you like them personally, will cause lasting damage on account of letting Trump have control.

What happened in Virginia was good and hopefully the DNC takes note.  Donít get cocky and start handpicking insiders or running far left progressives out there.  Let moderate left outsiders with fresh ideas but practical approaches point out reasonably how bad the GOP is without going all Democrat special interest group talking points.  No one has much enthusiasm for the establishment right now, but not being establishment doesnít mean you have to take on radical views.  You can be Kasich or Clinton policy-wise.  Just donít be Kasich or Clinton politically.

If that happens, we will probably get a crop of people all of us on this board can live with.  Let things cool off for a few years.  Then we can get back to our old political fighting left v right and how far.  Instead of all of us just being like ďWTF?!?Ē

daytime drinking

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #54 on: November 10, 2017, 10:11:40 AM »

is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone
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Kwyjibo

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #55 on: November 10, 2017, 12:50:48 PM »

Nevermind that everything else about the libertarian agenda is shit.
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Jonathan

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #56 on: November 10, 2017, 01:16:34 PM »

is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone

I'm more of a Roosevelt New Deal Democrat. I believe that members of society should look after one another in order to strengthen the country as a whole. I guess that makes me - gasp! - a socialist. Actually, more of a social democrat.

Socialism has gotten a bum rap in the United States. Many, many Americans, nearly 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, still think socialism = communism. And that's obviously not true. I think it's because the official name of the Soviet Union was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics - but they only really did that as spin doctoring. All communist countries do that - North Korea is neither democratic or a republic, but they call themselves the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Getting off on a political philosophy tangent here (easy for me to do) so I'll bring it on back - I don't consider myself a Democrat, but I'm certainly aligned with them and I want them to do well in the elections because they are the major party that is closest to my way of thinking. Unfortunately, what that means is that they are the only party that is not out to destroy the social safety net that I believe in - but I don't think that they are really looking to add to it too much (because of what happened in the 2010 midterms when they did). Still, I'm above all else, a realist. For example, I'll settle for not taking away health care for 25 million Americans before insisting on expanding it to everyone. Baby steps.

As for the Libertarian Party - meh. I actually believe you do need to have border controls (but not this crazy travel ban/wall/racial profiling bullshit) in order to safeguard your citizens. And frankly, citizens should be a priority for a government - otherwise, why have the concept of citizenship at all? As for drugs - well, I enjoy my alcohol (in moderation, of course - having a beer right now), and I enjoyed other stuff when I was younger. But now that I'm a "responsible adult" (allegedly), I find I don't miss it. Yes, there are some parts of the drug schedules that are bullshit. For example, I firmly believe that marijuana is illegal because the tobacco companies, all those years ago, saw a way to eliminate the competition and create a legally-enshrined monopoly on smokable narcotics. But you can't look at what's going on with the opioid epidemic (many of which are legal, albeit prescription, drugs) and tell me that "drugs for everyone" is a swell idea.

Anyway, I never thought I'd participate on an online politics board as much as I have here. Maybe that's because the people here are reasonable. And I've known most of you for years (and you know me).
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"I believe that in the long view of history, the British Empire will be remembered only for two things. The game of football, and the expression 'fuck off.'" - Sir Richard Turnbull

Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #57 on: November 10, 2017, 06:47:54 PM »

is everyone here a democrat not because they love the platform but because you hate the republicans?  join the libertarian party.  drugs and open borders for everyone

If Cliff Hyra or Rob Sarvis stood a chance here in VA, I might have voted for them.

My sister voted for Sarvis, then almost pooped her pants when Cuccinelli almost won.  So this time she went Dem.

The Libertarian candidates that ran in Virginia are different from a lot of Libertarians, though.  They were fairly moderate Libertarians.  Also they were not into all that Von Mises/Ayn Rand shit.

I could not vote for Gary Johnson because 1) Trump, 2) A little too far to the Rand axis, 3). He was kind of an idiot and not at all qualified.   But I kinda liked him.  I want him to stay in politics.  I think he makes a better governor or maybe Senator than a President.

Iím a hippy, old school classical liberal kind of Libertarian.  You ever read Adam Smith?  Itís very optimistic about how people are good.  Basically capitLism works because you cut out the middleman.  People will naturally help each other by interacting directly more than the government can.

Somewhere along the line, capitalism got twisted into this dog-eat-dog thing where capitalism works via survival of the fittest.  And it is your duty to be selfish so as to weed out the weak or something.  Libertarianism took a right turn, and Ron Paul and Rand Paul are of that school.  What is worse though, is it enabled every asshole conservative to claim to be libertarian.

All you do is talk about how YOUR rights are trampled, and ignore everyone elseís.  And what makes it easier to reconcile is if you do not treat others as real people.  For example Muslims are barbarians not ready to handle our golden Western values, so they donít get the hands-off approach to living.

The kind of Libertarianism I want cannot be achieved via government.  So any Libertarian trying to run for office is kinda defeating the purpose.  Basically, rich people die and leave all their money to poor people and then no one is poor, and weíre like ďWhat do we need taxes for?Ē

People just do what they do, and if they can handle it then government is redundant.  That is the problem with government in a Democracy.  Not they they are evil, or stunningly incompetent, but thatwe really may not need them that much. 

Post-Rand Libertarian is like post-Marx Communism.  The original idea was that you did not have to force it.  People would natural figure out that it was the best society.  If Smith and Marx were right, we just had to spread the word and wait.  But Libertarians nowadays are trying to force it just like Lenin did.  You canít bring about Libertarian society via government ruling.

So even though I view myself as a Libertarian, I am not aligned with the Libertarian party.  Politically, Iím a small government, centrist Liberal.  I would try to cut spending by 25% in ten years, and then optimally reduce the budget down to 25% of what it is now.  But almost the entirety of that small budget would be spent on left wing social programs.  Because I think that the role government is best at is being a safety net and redistributing wealth.  They just donít need to be doing so much of it, and so badly.

Zafer Kaya

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #58 on: November 10, 2017, 06:56:34 PM »

Looking at the voting in VA, Iím pretty sure Barbara Comstock is toast.

Itís a shame in a way as she is a mild, moderate Republican.   Then again, she still voted with the GOP all the time.  She moans about the incivilty and stuff, but she doesnít do much to stop it.

I think Scott Taylor could be in trouble as well.  Heís not a jerk but he is conservative enough that I donít care.

Jonathan

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
« Reply #59 on: November 11, 2017, 12:27:42 AM »

Somewhere along the line, capitalism got twisted into this dog-eat-dog thing where capitalism works via survival of the fittest.  And it is your duty to be selfish so as to weed out the weak or something.  Libertarianism took a right turn, and Ron Paul and Rand Paul are of that school.

...

Post-Rand Libertarian is like post-Marx Communism.  The original idea was that you did not have to force it.  People would natural figure out that it was the best society.  If Smith and Marx were right, we just had to spread the word and wait.  But Libertarians nowadays are trying to force it just like Lenin did.  You canít bring about Libertarian society via government ruling.

Hang on a second...a thought just occurred to me, reading those sentences in close succession.

Did Ron Paul name his son after Ayn Rand?
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"I believe that in the long view of history, the British Empire will be remembered only for two things. The game of football, and the expression 'fuck off.'" - Sir Richard Turnbull
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