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Author Topic: Cincinnati Reds 2018  (Read 8561 times)

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daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #45 on: May 11, 2018, 12:03:08 PM »

I'm gonna say Harvey manages to go six somewhat shaky innings, yielding 3 ER.

I also think that Harvey is not quite as crappy as people think, and his struggles are not just because he parties too much.  I think Thoracic Outlet Syndrome has robbed him of his velocity and he's just not the same pitcher any more.  But he can probably come to terms with that and learn how to get by throwing junk.  He'll suck, but he can be just another boring 5th or 6th starter with a 4.50-5.00 ERA.  Which really, is all the Reds need from him.  As long as he can eat some innings.

how is a 4.50- 5.00 not crappy? 
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #46 on: May 11, 2018, 10:02:54 PM »

Well I mean it is kind of crappy.  But most teams are going to have someone eating 150 IP at that level. 

You will have teams in the playoff hunt with a hole in their rotation due to injury or simply to give their starters a bit of rest.  If Harvey can pitch at that level, I think the Reds can flip him for a junky prospect and he will have served his purpose.

euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #47 on: May 12, 2018, 12:30:22 AM »

I'm gonna say Harvey manages to go six somewhat shaky innings, yielding 3 ER.

I also think that Harvey is not quite as crappy as people think
4 innings, no runs allowed, and looking quite good, in fact very good. so yea, not quite as crappy as people think

Not sure why he was pulled after 4 innings, he looked in total control.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Drjohnrock

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #48 on: May 12, 2018, 11:23:01 AM »



Not sure why he was pulled after 4 innings, he looked in total control.



The Mets demoted him to the bullpen so he hadn't started in awhile.  Riggleman said his innings last night would be limited.  They're trying to gradually stretch out his innings.
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daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #49 on: May 12, 2018, 12:15:27 PM »

thank god ole kremmy is our team's physician.    apparently he can be a loose cannon in the operating room and remain competent enough to keep his prestigious job, how does that work?

the dodgers suck balls.  jamie moyer could have beaten them.  what's he, sixty now?  billy hamilton had 26 stolen bases and this time last year.  he's got five so far despite being on base more.  i love baseball
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #50 on: May 31, 2018, 01:08:06 AM »

Benching Winker is hilariously stupid.

Honestly, if I were the owner of a team and the GM told me he wanted to bench Winker for bad defense I would fire him instantly.  Like no debate, discussion, or ordering him to play Winker, just the pink slip.

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #51 on: May 31, 2018, 08:56:31 PM »

i didn't hear about that.  yeah he's gotta be playing everyday.  he's part of your rebuild.  if he wasn't producing, that's one thing.  but he's batting decent and gets on base a lot.  not many reds do, and the ones that do, are at a pretty high clip.  like half the team is really good at getting on base and the others strike out.  pereza is playing well though despite not getting on base much.  am i looking to much into getting on base?  i think it's the most important indicator of a good hitter.  you could bat in the low .200's and still get on base a fair amount.  that's why there is value in the adam dunn's.  those guys are my favorite players.  all they do is bat and try and get dingers

i'm starting to wonder if all the hype behind our staff is not fo realz.  that saddens me, though it still is too early to tell.  i thought castillo was gonna be a star and romano a rock.  and mahle was gonna be the best of the bunch.  amir garrett has the look of a closer we'll trade for prospects in a coupla years.  that guy's got potential

the draft is upon us 
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euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #52 on: May 31, 2018, 10:59:11 PM »

the draft is upon us
If that is going to be the drawing part of the current Reds rebuild, which it looks like it, continue to see the attendance diminish. I mean, this is year 4 of the rebuild, and now we may be looking at another 2-3 years, if not more, before we see a truly competitive Reds team on the field...

Meanwhile FC Cincinnati is starting its MLS debut next year, continuing to excite the city (while of course gathering huge crowds in its current USL affiliation).

The Reds and FCC play about the same time of the year (April through September). Anyone think this is not going to affect the Reds?
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #53 on: June 01, 2018, 11:12:02 AM »

IMO, your rebuild has already failed.  The team core, along with what is in the minors, is nowhere near good enough to compete.  Trade everything that is not nailed down and draft well for two years and you can be in good shape.  Don't go into year 4 of the rebuild, go into year 1 of rebuild 2.0.

The problem is, it's the same leadership.  If the Reds knew what they were doing, they wouldn't be in this position in the first place.  They don't recognize that their rebuild has failed.  And even if they did, why would rebuild 2.0 be any more successful than rebuild 1.0?

euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #54 on: June 01, 2018, 08:00:04 PM »

If the Reds knew what they were doing, they wouldn't be in this position in the first place.  They don't recognize that their rebuild has failed.  And even if they did, why would rebuild 2.0 be any more successful than rebuild 1.0?
Much of that is true, although let's be honest, when you draft as many picks as they do in baseball, 40(!!) rounds, much of the draft come down to pure luck. Who the heck knows for sure beyond the most obvious earliest picks what the heck you are getting exactly?

I mean, if it was so obvious that Votto would become the player he eventually did, then why wasn't he picked in the first round (Reds picked him in the 2nd round).

Bottom line: I think drafting is baseball a mix of luck and knowledge.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #55 on: June 02, 2018, 12:20:16 AM »

mike trout was a late first rounder i think.  it probably is busted, but still might be a bit premature.  but it's not like letting these people try it again is gonna solve anything.  there was certainly something there in 2012.  what a fuckin collapse.  and that was with joey votto missing half of his career year.  just bad luck.  and cueto gets dinged in the first fucking game.  joey had like 44 doubles in like a hundred games his obp was almost .500.  he was raking except for dingers.  his been a second half player since it seems.  that's up there with the bearcat collapse in march.  fuuuuccck   
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #56 on: June 02, 2018, 12:27:25 PM »

GMís have the draft down pretty well now. 

Sure, every individual pick is still somewhat of a lottery ticket.  But that is why when you rebuild you collect high ceiling, lower minors players in bulk. 

 Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, even the Padres.  Every team that started rebuilding around the time the Teds did or after has a strong, contending, young team.  Only the Marlins have been worse but now they are cleaning house.

The Reds right now are worse than when they started their rebuild, and the farm system isnít any better either.  They waited way too long, and then they only had one salable asset in Chapman and they blew it on that trade.  They could have Gleyber Torres in their lineup right now.  But instead they have Peraza.

So I mean, it can be done for sure. Itís not luck.  In fact, Itís so easy the Cubs are already looking kinda over-the-hillish just two years after they won the WS with a team full of 25 and under players.

You just have to commit to intentionally punting at least two seasons.  The whole team will be brutal, and it just sucks to be a fan.  After that, itís not so bad.  The major league team might still be bad, but it will have some exciting young players on it.  And by year 4 or 5, you can be WS contenders. Againó it is not one team that managed to do this. Itís pretty much every team other than the Reds.

I think Reds fans are willing to do the full rebuild.  I do not think Reds ownership is, unfortunately.

euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #57 on: June 02, 2018, 11:09:51 PM »


I think Reds fans are willing to do the full rebuild.  I do not think Reds ownership is, unfortunately.
Regretfully, I think you may be right <sigh>
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #58 on: June 05, 2018, 05:43:53 PM »

By happenstance I stumbled upon this interview with COO Phil Castellini from exactly 2 years ago:

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/blog/2016/05/castellini-reds-should-be-truly-competitive-by.html

Oh my...
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #59 on: June 05, 2018, 06:55:40 PM »

Yep, pretty nails the problem with Castellini.

The Cubs basically started their rebuild when they hired Epstein after the 2011 season. The Astros started pretty much at the same time when they fired Ed Crane a month later.  Both teams were more or less starting from scratch with bad major league teams without a whole lot of trade value and bad/mediocre farm systems.

Both teams were horrible in 2012 and 2013.  Both teams started to see some minor improvement in 2014 as the first products of their rebuild reached the majors.  Both teams made the playoffs in 2015.  And of course what is left out of the article (because it hadnít happened yet) is that the Cubs won the WS in 2016, and the Astros in 2017.  So... 5 years respectively to become champions.  Which is really pretty fast if you consider where they started.

So if the Reds started their rebuild after 2014, the same formula would have them be abysmal in 2015, 2016, and 2017, with 2018 the year they started to see improvement, and contenders in 2019.

But in 2018, the Reds are worse than ever.  And instead of their prospects just now reaching the majors, most of their rebuilding core have already been in the majors and are not cutting it.  They tried to shortcut the process and it did not work.

Also of note is that the Cubs and Astros changed owners in 2011.  So it really was a wholesale change starting from the top.  The Cubs were owned by the Tribune/Zell who never cared about the team at all.  But Drayton McClane was similar to Castellini.  Not a horrible guy, kinda wanted to do right by the city, but incompetent.  Like Castellini, McClane was never willing to make the major changes.  He overvalued veteransó especially those who had been on the team for awhileó and so never traded players at peak value.  Moreover, those vets as they aged stated minorly productive for a while, which inflated their record.  They were basically paying players way too much money to take away their chances at high draft picks.

There is not much the Reds can do this season.  But 2019 can be their equivalent of the Cubs/Astros 2011.  Sell everything you can.  What you canít sell, let them wind down their contracts.  Pick up every free agent you can get for cheap that needs a one year pillow deal.  If they play halfway decent, flip them.  Look towards 2023, not 2021.
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