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[euro60]

Incredibly, Opening Day is less than 2 months away (March 29).

Today, they signed 37 yr. old reliever David Hernandez to a two-year contract. Hum....

I am trying to get optimistic about the upcoming season, but I'm struggling, to be honest.

Other than the Pirates having dismantled their team, is there any reason to think the Reds will finish 4th at best in the division?

[daytime drinking]

i thought he was 32

[euro60]

ESPN reported him being 37, and that the 2 year deal is worth $5 mill.

[Butter]

Baseball Reference says he's 32, almost 33

[daytime drinking]

i'm so shocked i was right. 

bold predictions for the year.  jesse winker bats leadoff around the all star break and the reds finish .500

[Zafer Kaya]

Fangraphs has you down for a not-terrible-but-not-good 72-90 season.  Still last in the NL Central though.  5 games behind the Brewers, 6 games behind the Pirates, 16 games behind the Cards, and 20 games behind the Cubs.

Still a decent improvement over last year.  Especially when you consider they do not have big playing time projections for Winker, and they are conservative about projecting improvement for young players.  There's more upside than downside to that projection, but then again there usually is when the projection is bad.

Your batting and pitching are projected to be about equally as bad.  The big area for improvement is the pitching.  They think all of your starters suck bad except Castillo.  Everyone else has a 4.50+ projection, except for what looks like a not-horrendous 20 IP late-season cup of coffee for Cody Reed.

They don't really take into account actual division and schedule.  So if one or two teams in the Central suck worse than anticipated that will probably jack up the Reds record.

[daytime drinking]

i don't see the offense being a problem.  there is depth in talent and not enough room to give everyone who deserves it enough playing time.  nick senzel needs to be playing soon too.  pitching will be trial and error.  pittsburgh has got to suck

[Zafer Kaya]

Well, looking at the offense they have Votto taking a big step down to a (still impressive) 4.5 WAR.  He's getting dragged down by "No one is THAT good" regression to the mean, that he won't play as many games, and probably on an aging model. 

So if your assumption is that Votto stays healthy all year, then you can add 1.5-2 games to the win column right there.

They also think your OF sucks horribly.  Which is tbf, is accurate if the OF is Schebler, Duvall, and Hamilton.  But if you replace one or two slots with a decent Winker and Ervin, that's probably another 2-3 games.

They also see Peraza as Hamilton-esque clone.  Better power and fewer steals, but basically still fast players with mediocre BA who don't draw walks.  I know you like Peraza so if you are right and they are wrong, that's maybe another game or two.

... and that would get the Reds to just about .500.

[euro60]

... and that would get the Reds to just about .500.

woohoo, so excited <rolling eyes>

[daytime drinking]

.500 would probably get price an extension.  it be heading in the right direction probably a year ahead of schedule.  the outfield is elite defensively, maybe  makes up for their lack of getting on base.  if mez is healthy, that's a potent latter part of the battery.  keep those boys fresh.  mez is gonna club twenty dingers and tuck gon' win a gold glove.  if pitching solidifies, woah brother

[Zafer Kaya]

I dunno, man.  I feel like .500 would be the worst thing that could happen to Price.

I get the sense he just hangs on to his job because the Reds are like, “Screw it, we’re going to suck anyway.”  If they improve to .500, with good young players, that job will be more appealing and they can bring in someone better.

It’ll be like the Cubs with Rick Renteria.  Except Renteria ended up being so good it actually became awkward to fire him.  Whereas Price sucks. 

[daytime drinking]

i think he's just now finally getting a fair shake.  he walked into a situation that was out of his control.  of course, he could just as well be terrible with a good roster as a shitty one.  now we can find out.  not sure how much difference it makes honestly. 

[euro60]

Catchers and pitchers are starting workouts tomorrow! Spring is around the corner! Yessssssssss

And Opening Day (moved up this year) is only 6 weeks away! Woohoo!

[euro60]

I entertained clients at our firm's suite on Saturday. Sad, just sad (talking about the Reds' play). The Reds had, not once, but twice, the bases loaded and zero outs. And what did they do? NADA.

One client commented "well we have great food and great company", and that just about sums it up.

I have zero expectations about the Reds anywhere being competitive again this year.

[Zafer Kaya]

You're giving up way too soon.  538 gives the Reds a full 6% chance of making the playoffs.