Well, looking at the offense they have Votto taking a big step down to a (still impressive) 4.5 WAR. He's getting dragged down by "No one is THAT good" regression to the mean, that he won't play as many games, and probably on an aging model.
So if your assumption is that Votto stays healthy all year, then you can add 1.5-2 games to the win column right there.
They also think your OF sucks horribly. Which is tbf, is accurate if the OF is Schebler, Duvall, and Hamilton. But if you replace one or two slots with a decent Winker and Ervin, that's probably another 2-3 games.
They also see Peraza as Hamilton-esque clone. Better power and fewer steals, but basically still fast players with mediocre BA who don't draw walks. I know you like Peraza so if you are right and they are wrong, that's maybe another game or two.
... and that would get the Reds to just about .500.