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Author Topic: Cincinnati Reds 2018  (Read 9004 times)

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euro60

  • City Elder
  • Posts: 4,207
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2018, 11:07:59 PM »

You're giving up way too soon.  538 gives the Reds a full 6% chance of making the playoffs.
Am I? Reds are 1-4 and looked lost tonight in Pittsburgh, yet again.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but man...
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

Zafer Kaya

  • City Elder
  • Posts: 3,723
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2018, 01:18:30 AM »

You're giving up way too soon.  538 gives the Reds a full 6% chance of making the playoffs.
Am I? Reds are 1-4 and looked lost tonight in Pittsburgh, yet again.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but man...

Well, I mean a 6% chance does make them the 5th worst team in baseball and finish last in the NL Central by 11 games.  So I mean, they suck really bad.  What it really says is there use for even the suckiest of MLB teams.  At least 5 games into the season.  They have had a tough schedule so far with the Nationals and Cubs.

daytime drinking

  • City Elder
  • Posts: 1,749
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2018, 09:31:12 AM »

it's looking pretty bad so far.  i'll start to worry once the middle of may comes around.  i'm really hoping jesse winker is the next coming of cap anson
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euro60

  • City Elder
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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2018, 11:27:27 PM »

Did anyone see what happened at tonight's game in Pittsburgh? Just embarrassing all the way around.

Now 1-5 and already 4.5 games out of first place. After one week of play. Wow.
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

daytime drinking

  • City Elder
  • Posts: 1,749
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2018, 12:18:07 AM »

Did anyone see what happened at tonight's game in Pittsburgh? Just embarrassing all the way around.

Now 1-5 and already 4.5 games out of first place. After one week of play. Wow.

so you care?  cut it out euro, you're embarrassing yourself
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poach eggs, not elephants

daytime drinking

  • City Elder
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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2018, 10:12:35 AM »

i might have been wrong on homer bailey.  and this entire team.  damn girl, dey's bad

it'll get better though, right? 
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poach eggs, not elephants

Butter

  • Suffering from early-onset douchiness
  • City Elder
  • Posts: 10,158
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2018, 10:56:30 AM »

ZK, I gotta hand it to you.  You said years ago that it was time to blow it up a couple of years before they did.  And by then it was too late. 

This roster sucks, and there aren't a lot of good prospects of improvement right now.  Turrible.
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daytime drinking

  • City Elder
  • Posts: 1,749
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2018, 08:20:02 AM »

ZK, I gotta hand it to you.  You said years ago that it was time to blow it up a couple of years before they did.  And by then it was too late. 

This roster sucks, and there aren't a lot of good prospects of improvement right now.  Turrible.

uhm, everyone but reds management said that
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poach eggs, not elephants

Butter

  • Suffering from early-onset douchiness
  • City Elder
  • Posts: 10,158
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2018, 09:21:36 AM »

ZK, I gotta hand it to you.  You said years ago that it was time to blow it up a couple of years before they did.  And by then it was too late. 

This roster sucks, and there aren't a lot of good prospects of improvement right now.  Turrible.

uhm, everyone but reds management said that

Um, I didn't.
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daytime drinking

  • City Elder
  • Posts: 1,749
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2018, 12:22:07 PM »

it was pretty obvious they held onto everyone a year to a few years longer than they did.  after bryan price's second year at least, they shoulda started spring cleaning.  the core wasn't getting it done and folks started to command more money.  still don't know why they didn't offer cueto homie bailey's contract

what time frame are you talking about? 
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poach eggs, not elephants

Butter

  • Suffering from early-onset douchiness
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  • Posts: 10,158
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2018, 12:24:36 PM »

it was pretty obvious they held onto everyone a year to a few years longer than they did.  after bryan price's second year at least, they shoulda started spring cleaning.  the core wasn't getting it done and folks started to command more money.  still don't know why they didn't offer cueto homie bailey's contract

what time frame are you talking about? 

Earlier than that.  I think he was talking about it during Dusty's last year or maybe even next to last.  I'd have to go digging for the comment, and I'm lazy.
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daytime drinking

  • City Elder
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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2018, 12:50:26 PM »

dusty made the playoffs his last year.  they lost to the pirates in the wild wild card.  the year before they should have won the world series.  in hindsight, they never shoulda fired dusty.  but that's what dusty does
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poach eggs, not elephants

Butter

  • Suffering from early-onset douchiness
  • City Elder
  • Posts: 10,158
Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #27 on: May 09, 2018, 01:35:20 PM »

It's all over the 2013 thread, even before the playoff game they lost to Pittsburgh.  I was arguing against a rebuild, which seems a solid position coming off a 90-win season.
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daytime drinking

  • City Elder
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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2018, 03:42:00 PM »

damn girl.  you goin way back.  jesus. that's a pretty tough sell
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2018
« Reply #29 on: May 09, 2018, 09:26:34 PM »

It would have been hard to blow up a good team.

But the issue was that team was as good as it was going to get, and was probably already just past itís prime.  If the Reds stood pat, they might have at best one more year of wildcard left in them, which is crappy WS odds anyway.  They had already paid kind of a high price to keep the window open as long as they did as they gave out some big contract extensions to players like Phillips who you knew were not going to last the length of the deal.

But by trading some or all of their players while they had a fair amount of value, they could have gotten a bevy of great prospects.  Enough so that they could well be contending with an exciting team right now.  Instead itís Milwaukee.  It would have been a risk and taken some out-of-the-box thinking but smaller clubs like the Reds have to do that.  The Cubs can carry $30m of deadweight, the Respds cannot.

Still, they could have rebuilt much sooner than they did.  That really cost them.  And, when they did rebuild they could have gone whole hog and asked for top ceiling, low minors talent.  Instead they went for Peraza, Finnigan and Desclafini types with lower potential but who were closer to the bigs.

Right now, the Reds have a decent Farm system.  Maybe between ten and fifteenth in MLB.  But an average Farm plus a putrid parent club does not spell contender.  Theyíll get better, but the ceiling looks like .500.  This generation isnít going to cut it.  They will get some good draft picks the next couple seasons, but those picks will arrive too late to even help the semi-decent young guys like Peraza and Winker.

So my 2018 suggestion for the Reds is to blow up this half-ass rebuild. Trade all of your decent young MLB players and B+ prospects including Senzel if necessary for raw, young high ceiling players in the low minors.  Add to that what is likely to be 2-3 years of high draft picks and you will have a stellar group of talent that has played with each other through the minors and are all ready to hit MLB at once in 2021-22 or so.  Then you will have a nice 4 or 5 year window.

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