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Author Topic: Cincinnati Reds 2019  (Read 376 times)

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euro60

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Cincinnati Reds 2019
« on: December 23, 2018, 01:50:57 AM »

Yeah, interesting deal.

I still think the Reds should be rebuilding, and this deal moves them in the opposite direction.  So it is easy at firstly blush to just slam this trade.

But OTOH, they aren't taking on any long term obligations.  I think Puig is a bit of a headcase who might blow up in the Reds' face. But I meN, you have to take a bit of a risk.  If Puig weren't who he is, there's no way he'd be abailable.

The Puig risk us offset by Kemp, who I think is a pretty cool guy.  Unfgirtinstely, I think the tank is empty.  But I think he us still an asset.  He's no MVP, but could still be a monster 4th OF/bench bat.

Wood is a great pitcher if he can stay healthy which I seriously doubt he will.  But I'm not going to fing the Reds fir that.  If he could pitch 200 IP reliably with a 3-ish ERS, he wouldn't be on the market

On paper,this team looks competitive if you assume health and repeat performances of last year.  Not favorites, but possibly righting therw.  The problem is there is a ton more downside from that baseline than there is upside.

It is a good trade if you want to take a stab at winning.  If it does not work, you just set back your rebuild one year.  Maybe not even, if they can flip some of those players if they are out of it.  And maybe some if the young players benefit from veteran presence.  They did not blow up the farm system, just dinged it a bit.

I would be grudgingly okay with this trade if I were a Reds fan.  I'd prefer them rebuild, but if they do not want to do that this is the next best thing.

That offense will not be quite as good as you think it is, though. Sure, they will put some points on the board in that park, but so will their opponents.

I have to say I was nothing short of stunned, STUNNED, when I heard about this trade.

I mean, the economics are very hard to grasp, if they are to grasp at all. I surely don't understand them. (Neither does Reds CEO Bob Castellini when asked about by the Enquirer's sports columnist.)

But I will admit that it grabbed my attention, something the Reds haven't done in a loooooong time.

Worst case scenario: Kemp, Puig, and Wood stay here for a year and then are gone. But it should make the Reds immediately "competitive" in the stacked NL Central. Something they haven't done in the last 4 years (and with dramatic attendance falloff to boot). Honestly, I had no intend to attend but more than 1 or 2 games (probably work-related) in 2019, but now? I might go to a few, even some more, if the Reds aren't out of contention after the first month or so, as they have been in recent years.

Bottom line: this is the biggest trade in Reds Country since Griffey Jr., and that was.... 19 years ago, yes, 19 years ago!
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2018, 08:41:15 AM »

or maybe since the mat latos deal.  that's the last time i can remember we razed the farm.  yonder alonso, yasmani grandal, didi gregorius, brad boxberger if memory serves me.  all those guys turned into quality everyday players.  latos surely proved worth even after he was traded.  got disco.  when healthy he's a middle of the road starter.  and latos is out of the league before he turned thirty 
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2018, 10:22:52 AM »

The Dodgers are drowning in talent.  Alex Verdugo has spent two seasons in AAA now, and he is probably an above average MLB OF.  I donít mean potentially.  I mean he already is.

People keep talking about how the Dodgers that got traded were on their last year, but the reality is the contracts did not matter.  These were guys the Dodgers were trying to get rid of anyway.  They are headaches to have on your team.  If Wood is healthy you kind of have to start him, but you cannot count on him to be healthy.  Puig is a headcase.  Itís awkward to bench Kemp but the truth is he is probably done.

So the Dodgers are so good that despite losing some quality players this is a bit of addition by subtraction for them.  And they free up salary cap money to bring in a stud FA.  And got a couple of pieces for the future to keep their farm stocked. 

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2018, 08:42:12 AM »

you'd be hard pressed to find any red fan not who doesn't like this trade.  kemp had a pedestrian second half but he's not going to play everyday so whatever production he can give is a plus.  awesome pinch hitter i imagine he will be
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poach eggs, not elephants

daytime drinking

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2019, 09:27:42 AM »

man, if we only lose that india kid to get realmuto, hot damn 
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poach eggs, not elephants

Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2019, 11:12:42 AM »

If you could get Realmuto for just India (or India as the centerpiece) that would be a steal. 

euro60

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2019, 10:37:53 PM »

I happen to watch a bit of the Reds' pre-season game tonight.

Can anyone explain to me the new weird crest on the Reds uniform? Is is something to do with the Reds' 150 season?
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"A blind faith in authority is the worst enemy of truth" - Albert Einstein (1901)

The Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra is one of Cincinnati's underappreciated treasures

foolsgold

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Butter

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2019, 08:22:15 AM »

To distract you from the fact that they're still not going to be good.
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Zafer Kaya

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Re: Cincinnati Reds 2019
« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2019, 11:37:37 AM »

Yeah... I don't know. 

On the plus side:  The Reds should be a lot better.  IMO, the NL Central probably isn't as strong this year as last year.

On the minus side:  There's plenty of room for the Reds to be "a lot better" and still not be very good.  The NL Central was unreal last year, so a small step back still yields an insanely competitive and fairly strong division.

I was looking at the projected standings in Fangraphs and they had the Reds at exactly .500.  That seems to be the strong consensus amongst most sites.  Which seems about right to me.  They would finish 7 games behind the Cubs.  But that's not THAT much.  It wouldn't be a shock for the Cubs to be worse than expected and the Reds better and they make up that 7 games.  Except the Reds are also projected to finish behind the Brewers and the Cardinals.  That's how everyone has them-- right around .500 and finishing in 4th place.  So they need either need a bunch of teams to underachieve, or they need to be way better than than projected. 

They have like, a chance.  Just not a very good one.  But they didn't screw themselves over in the long-term to improve the team, so that's good.  They had the option of either just punting this year and taking the high draft picks, or committing some money and giving themselves a half-chance.  They picked the second option and it could work out.  If you're out of the race near at the deadline, you trade the guys you just got for... not a lot but if your scouting is good you can get some good players out of the B level prospects they will get offered.

I have no problem with what they did this offseason.  It didn't really hurt them, and it could end up being a clever strategy.  You just have to trust that the Reds know what they're doing now, and won't try to extend the players or refuse to trade them.  Which is the part I have trouble with.  Because you can also kinda look at this offseason as the Reds once again looking to fading/questionable vets as short-term fixes that never work, and they just kind of got some halfway decent guys this time.  So they are perfecting their strategy, but not addressing the larger problem that the strategy isn't a very good one.

« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 11:42:06 AM by Zafer Kaya »
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