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Author Topic: Reds '06  (Read 15473 times)

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Bronzetree

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Reds '06
« Reply #30 on: April 07, 2006, 01:46:53 AM »

Yeah, I saw that Dunn homer. It was fucking titanic. According to the TV analysts, it bounced between the smokestacks, over the back wall and onto the street, striking a car. Supposedly, the driver stopped and picked it up, and went on his way.

Not sure I believe that, but the hit itself was undeniable.

But man, I guess I just don't have as much faith in Dunn as everyone else. Sure, he hits a mean homer, but like W said, he strikes out a lot and his defense is in sore need of some work. I'd rather see a few more well-rounded players like Wily Mo and Joe Randa in the lineup, but they gave them up. Ah well, at least we've got Freel stealing mad bases.
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Butter

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Reds '06
« Reply #31 on: April 07, 2006, 08:28:04 AM »

Quote from: "rva"
Man, when Adam Dunn hits the ball-- he REALLY hits the ball.  479 feet on a line drive, are you kidding me?  I like the guy. He looks like he's having fun out there.

Moreover, he's perfectly adequate at first base so it's really the Reds' fault for playing him out of position.


The scoop is that Dunn looked so bad at first this spring, that they pretty much don't even list him on the depth chart there any more.  It's like a glove is his kryptonite.

Quote
Don't give up hope, Reds fans.  I just got through crushing some stats and the verdict is:  Ryan Wagner is good.  Very good.  In fact, he's a sliver away from being a lights-out closer if he can just get a little more consistency and control.  Essentially, he's had terrible luck.  That and his tendency to  walk a few guys...


Oops.  His tendency to walk a few guys <> terrible luck.  It equals terrible control.  I definitely think that if he were ready to go, he could've at least beaten out Mike Burns for a bullpen job.  But if they are grooming him to be closer, it's probably a good idea to give him some more time to find his control at AAA... it's not like the Reds will be contending this year.  Maybe by the time they're ready, he'll be ready.

Quote from: "Wherle"
I'd rather see a few more well-rounded players like Wily Mo


Did you ever see him play the field?  It was like giving a glove to a rhinoceros and expecting some good to come from it.
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rva

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Reds '06
« Reply #32 on: April 07, 2006, 12:12:52 PM »

Quote from: "Butter"
I definitely think that if he were ready to go, he could've at least beaten out Mike Burns for a bullpen job.


That's the thing.  He did beat Mike Burns out for a bullpen job.  And Coffey.  And Weathers, Belisle and White.  The Reds were just too stupid to realize it.

He had one bad outing which can be forgiven because it was his first appearance.  After that he threw 12 scoreless innings and only gave up 6 hits.  He had BY FAR the best spring training of anyone in the bullpen, and he showed excellent command.

As for luck, there's a stat the pointyheads use called strand rate. It's (H+BB-ER)/(H+BB-HR).  Most pitchers should be around 70-75%, regardless of skill.  Lousy pitchers just have higher numerators and denominators.  Wagner's rate strand rate was 60%.  Pitchers at that level historically display an 80% chance of improving their ERA (usually significantly).  Basically they were extremely unlucky, and they regress back to the mean.  

Also you have a guy who strikes out a ton and keeps the ball on the ground.  He walks a bit more than you'd like but it's not terrible.  The walks shouldn't burn him too bad because he can just strike out or get a double play from the next batter.  He's exactly what you want in that bandbox... except the Reds have terrible fielders, and the aforementioned bad luck.  If you crunch the numbers to give him a luck and fielding-independent ERA, it comes out the mid 3's.  Again, it's the walks the keep him from being among the elite, but even with the walks he's still pretty good.

The other thing is, his command actually improved last year, as did his tendency to induce groundballs.  If he takes just another small step up, he really will be at Billy Wagner/Brad Lidge levels.  So add in his sterling spring where he appears to be doing just that, and you have a guy who needs to be with the ballclub.  

If you don't think he's ready to close (which I think might be true as he has not yet learned how to prevent the big inning, a common problem among inexperienced pitchers) let him be the setup guy.  That's how smart teams groom their closers.
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Butter

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Reds '06
« Reply #33 on: April 07, 2006, 12:55:54 PM »

Quote from: "rva"
If you don't think he's ready to close (which I think might be true as he has not yet learned how to prevent the big inning, a common problem among inexperienced pitchers) let him be the setup guy.  That's how smart teams groom their closers.


Then why do you think he's not on the team?  Are they just down on him from when he had that bad patch last year?  Worried about further injury?  Just worried about ruining a possible shining star?
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rva

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Reds '06
« Reply #34 on: April 07, 2006, 03:23:12 PM »

Why would you trade the guy who led the Arizona Fall League in hitting for a washed-up Tony Womack, when the Yankees were desperate to simply get him off their roster?

Why are possible all-stars Felipe Lopez and Ryan Freel losing playing time to Womack and Rich Aurilia?

Why would you sign Quinton McCracken to be your fourth outfielder when you have Chris Denorfia?

Because the Reds are just that stupid.
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rva

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Reds '06
« Reply #35 on: April 08, 2006, 12:37:18 AM »

How painful was that?  First off, the Reds actually let Freel AND Lopez play (with Freel leading off) instead of Womack and Aurilia.  Then Milton actually pitches well and for seven innings no less.   And even after all that, Coffey, Hammond, Weathers and Dunn conspire to almost lose the ballgame anyway.

It's like they overcame tremendous odds to win that game, none of which should have been necessary at all.  The Astros and Cardinals are weak this year.  That division was the Cubs' to win, but Dusty Baker spotted everyone twenty losses by putting Wood and Prior on the DL.  

And it's like the Reds are saying "Twenty games is nothing.  Watch us cost our team THIRTY wins."  That's just crazy.  They have to be the worst run team in the majors right now.  They have a very legitimate shot at winning the NL Central if they just run their team the way any halfway knowledgable fan would.
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Rafe

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Reds '06
« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2006, 03:03:39 PM »

Quote from: "rva"
Man, when Adam Dunn hits the ball-- he REALLY hits the ball.  479 feet on a line drive, are you kidding me?  I like the guy. He looks like he's having fun out there.

I like him, too. I was lucky enough to see that homer as well, and it was such a big hit, I expected the ball to fly into my garden a second later.

I'm impressed with the little I have seen of Arroyo. His brilliant home run against Chicago aside, he looks like a pretty decent pitcher.
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Am Meer

rva

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Reds '06
« Reply #37 on: April 08, 2006, 04:27:35 PM »

Yes, Arroyo was a decent pickup for the Reds.  The problem is that he is the Reds' second best pitcher, when on a good team he should realistically be the fourth starter.  About his home run against Chicago, I have no comment.

Good game for the Reds today, Freel is going nuts on the basepaths.  Because of the people on this board, I'm finding myself turning into a Reds fan.  I hope they come in a very, very distant second in their division and get a wildcard into the playoffs.
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Rafe

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Reds '06
« Reply #38 on: April 08, 2006, 06:13:36 PM »

Sorry to mention the Arroyo homer.  I think it's going to be a one off.

I hope the fans get behind the Reds this year. I was really surprised to see their behaviour on opening day, and optimistically attribute the boo's to the fact that Bush was in the ballpark that day, not that the fans were being mean to their side after a matter of a few innings. For the team with the second worst odds at making the playoffs (ahead of Kansas) at the British bookies, I'd say the team have made a pretty good start. Good luck to them. Please turn my fiver bet into something more substantial!
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Am Meer

Dan

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Reds '06
« Reply #39 on: April 08, 2006, 06:19:10 PM »

Ooosh.  The Reds in the Playoffs?  Not the best bet...

But I'll cheer for ya, Rafe!  It'd be entertaining to see that team successful, but hell...why not? Now they've got Brandon Phillips, one of 2002's hottest prospects, as ANOTHER player in their already-too-crowded infield.  It makes me chuckle.
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Jonathan

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Reds '06
« Reply #40 on: April 09, 2006, 12:07:37 AM »

Quote from: "Rafe"
I hope the fans get behind the Reds this year. I was really surprised to see their behaviour on opening day, and optimistically attribute the boo's to the fact that Bush was in the ballpark that day, not that the fans were being mean to their side after a matter of a few innings.

That's just Cincinnati fans being Cincinnati fans. You simply can't allow double-digit runs and lose by nine on Opening Day. It's unacceptable, and the fans were just expressing that. If the Gills went out and lost, say, 4-nil at the home opener, I daresay there'd be a fair bit of discontent at Priestfield.

You probably saw more about the game than I did. I saw that 16-7 score and died a little inside. Thankfully, the players didn't let any of it bother them, obviously.

All of RVA's comments have made me impatient for May 31st when Out of the Park 2006 (from the people who brought you Football Manager 2006) is released, I can finally get my pre-ordered copy, then clear out all the dead wood on the Reds roster and manage the youngsters to World Series glory!
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"I believe that in the long view of history, the British Empire will be remembered only for two things. The game of football, and the expression 'fuck off.'" - Sir Richard Turnbull

Dan

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Reds '06
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2006, 12:10:44 AM »

Quote from: "Jonathan"
May 31st when Out of the Park 2006 (from the people who brought you Football Manager 2006) is released

Feel free to remind me of the release of this promising title when I can purchase it as well.  The concept sounds awesome.
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rva

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Reds '06
« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2006, 02:26:01 PM »

Do they have real names this time, or do we have to go and change John Niemann to Austin Kearns and Thomas Hamm to Sammy Sosa?
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Jonathan

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Reds '06
« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2006, 10:27:10 PM »

I believe they are working to secure the license. That's probably why it's taking until May 31 to be released.

If they don't, I'm sure that somebody will release a player name data update file into the wild within the first week.
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"I believe that in the long view of history, the British Empire will be remembered only for two things. The game of football, and the expression 'fuck off.'" - Sir Richard Turnbull

Butter

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Reds '06
« Reply #44 on: April 10, 2006, 09:23:53 AM »

Dave Williams made his first start yesterday, and went scoreless through 4+.  I guess that's a positive sign, but the Reds are only 4-2 so far because they've been able to outscore teams with mediocre pitching.  When they start hitting the teams with actual pitching staffs, it's going to mean trouble.

And rva, I'm not sure that even you could guide this team into the playoffs with the bullpen they have.  It's just not that good... full of old journeyman type pitchers, and as we've already discussed the only possible savior on the horizon is Ryan Wagner.  The acquisition of Brandon Phillips just made me chuckle a bit... I can only hope they have some secret plan to start dealing some of these old players for some bullpen help, but frankly I don't see it happening.
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